Yu Zeyuan: How long can the Sino -US trade war be played?

Ji Yan Chunqiu

Ma Yun, chairman of the board of directors of Alibaba Group, said during the Sino -US trade war the day before yesterday that even if the US President Trump retirees, the trade war will continue, and the time may be 20 years!

Although the Sino -US trade war is in full swing, Ma Yun's statement is still a bit shocking.What is the concept of 20 years?After several rounds of American elections, China will inevitably experience the leadership.Moreover, 20 years later, the Sino -US economy, political and social conditions are afraid that no one can say it now.

But Ma Yun's judgment was not sensational.The Sino -US trade war is longer than people's expectations, which is no longer doubtful.From a macro perspective, there will still be trade friction between China and the United States after 20 years or more, which is basically sure.

The U.S. Trade Representative Office announced the day before yesterday to increase 10%tariffs on Chinese goods (S $ 274.1 billion), 10%of new tariffs will take effect next Monday (24th), and the tax rate will increase to 25%next year.The United States also announced that if China takes revenge on US farmers or other industries, the United States will immediately launch the third stage of action, that is, imposed tariffs on imported goods imported by about $ 267 billion.

However, China did not show weakness, and quickly announced that it would impose equivalent tariffs on imported goods native to the United States.This is also equivalent to declare that China has prepared to welcome the "third ax" in the United States.

The US Treasury Department recently released a message to invite China to conduct high -level consultations, but the trade war has been upgraded again, which has greatly reduced the possibility of ending the trade war through negotiations in the short term.The question now is: Why is the Sino -US trade war longer and larger than the expected time?How long can the Sino -US trade war be played?

The first question is related to the strategic competition between China and the United States.In addition to the direct motivation of China's huge surplus in the United States, the United States launched a trade war, and it did include the intention to weaken China's scientific and technological competitiveness and change its economic and even political rules.For China, reducing the trade surplus can negotiate and change its economic and political rules without discussing.This is the fundamental reason why China would rather lose economic interests, and it must be done with the United States.

The second problem is related to the tolerance of both parties.At the beginning of the Sino -US trade war, many people in the United States and China were not optimistic about China's ability to resist pressure. They believed that China has obtained huge benefits from the US trade. As long as the United States is real, China will be soft and even admit.Some people even make a judgment of Chinese surrender, and they can only kneel in late surrender.

As a result, China's tough posture and bearing ability exceeded expectations.In the past two months of the trade war, Chinese society has gradually restored its calming from the initial panic, and the voice of singing in China in online public opinion has also weakened significantly.It is found that the trade war has not had much impact on the daily life of the Chinese people, and economic growth has not fallen sharply. Some large networks have shifted from a few months ago to call for officials to accelerate reform and opening up.It can be said that Chinese officials have survived the psychological impact of the trade war on society, and can actively consolidate social forces and have long -term rotation with the United States.

However, the situation in which China was in the wind in the short term has not changed.After the second stage of the United States launched trade sanctions in the second stage and even the third stage, the Chinese economy will also bear greater pressure than in the past few months.However, China has relatively complete industrial categories, huge domestic markets and relatively efficient political systems. It is not difficult to carry the export pressure brought by the trade war.The biggest impact on the trade war on China is the market sentiment. In the context of the trade war, how to save and retain investors' confidence in the Chinese economy is a major challenge that Chinese officials must face for a long time.

How long can the Sino -US trade war depends on whether the United States can bear the pressure of killing the enemy by one thousand and damage to 800.In the first five months of this year, the level of inflation in the United States continued to rise, and producers' prices increased year -on -year than the year -on -year increase in consumer prices, indicating that consumer prices will continue to rise in the future.After the "three -board ax" waved in the United States, after China cannot be made, the Sino -US trade war may fall into a deadlock. The losses of American consumers and the future of the United States may lose the prospects of the Chinese market, which may promote the US government to return to the negotiating table.

Regardless of whether it is talked about, the United States has the initiative, which is determined by the status of the world's boss.But even the world's boss, it is unable to fall into a war -consuming war that cannot see the future.From this perspective, Sino -US trade frictions will exist for a long time, and the Sino -US trade war will not last long.