China has realized that Trump's trade threat is serious.This trade confrontation will be one -to -one with the United States, or one -to -three (US, Japan and Europe), which is important to China now.
On August 23, 2018, another round of Sino -US talks designed to avoid the end of the trade war ended in Washington and did not achieve any results. At the same time, foreign officials arrived in the U.S. capital to prepare for the next day.Important meetings.This is an unusual three -sided forum that gathers the US, the European Union (EU) and Japan.
Their mission: cracking down on the so -called unfair trade practices of "third -party countries".
In December last year, at the World Trade Organization (WTO) Buenos Aires meeting, US trade representative Robert Bull; Robert Lighthizer and the European Union and Japan's trade representatives announced their initiative. At that time, they, they, theyIt does not indicate which country is creating "a huge subsidy of the distorted market, state -owned enterprises, mandatory technology transfer, and (so -called) unfair competition caused by local products".
This trio represents an important change in confrontation between the United States and China.The Communist Party of China and government officials are confident that they can cope with the comprehensive trade war with the United States MDash; MDash; China feels that the comprehensive trade war is inevitable.
Not long ago, Saturday, US President Donald Bull; Donald Trump threatened to impose tariffs on all China -US -US -USS -US -USS -US -USS -US -American goods (values of more than 500 billion US dollars last year).The next day, they saw the US President a tweet that advised Apple to move back to the United States in the United States.
However, the Trump administration, the European Union, and Japan may be united to really make them united at night to attack MDash; MDASH; this model cannot beOr missing.
In recent months, the European Union and Japan have joined the ranks of the United States and filed a lawsuit in the WTO.
In a joint statement in May, Hiroshige Seko, Hiroshige Seko, said, "No country should not pass through the requirements of a joint venture company, the proportion of foreign shares, and administrative administrationReconsideration and license issuance procedures to request or force foreign enterprises to transfer technology to their domestic enterprises. "
After Trump's period of provoking trade disputes in all countries, China is currently worried that it has accidentally explored a more effective trade strategy.
Eswal Bull, the head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the current head of the Chinese Ministry and currently taught at Cornell University; ESWAR PRASAD said: "These moves make China very nervous." <<
During private conversations, Chinese officials stated that when Trump launched a trade operation to China, the European Union, Canada, Mexico, Japan, and South Korea this year, they could not believe they would have this luck.At the beginning of Trump's headless flies, he helped the Chinese government to unload a lot of pressure MDash; MDASH; the European Union and Japan filed a lawsuit against the imported steel and aluminum in the WTO, which supported China.
However, since the announcement of the famous photos of the G7 allies at the Quebec Summit at the Quebec Summit in June of the Seventh Kingdom Group (G7), it has shown signs that three of the world's four major trading powers may really work together to deal with China.In addition to the talks with the European Union and Japan, the Trump administration is also committed to consolidating the recent trade off -war with the European Union and Mexico, and strives to have the "North American Free Trade Agreement" after the revised "North American Free Trade Agreement" with Canada.Agreement.
Many people have doubts whether Trump's efforts will be successful in Chinese aimed at China."To do this, Trump must adopt a completely different way of behavior." A senior European banker said, "Europeans do not believe him, they should not believe him.
"The banker pointed out that Trump's repeated impermanence may destroy any alliance with the European Union and Japan. The threat of his recently withdrawing from the WTO is an example of mdash; MDASH; the European Union and Japan prefer to trade in this multilateral trade in this multilateral tradeDo things in the organizational framework.
"In 2017, the overall feeling of China felt like lsquo; everything went smoothly RSQUO;" Recently, a person who had met with the highest level officials in China recently said, "This spring, they believe that Trump's tariff threat is a little bumps on the road on the road..
Today, they believe that this is not a little bump, and even if Trump will go to Xitian tomorrow, this problem will not disappear.They also realized that they also had trade with Europe."
When the EUROPEAN Commission Chairman Jean-Cloand Bull;I am worried about China.
A person who participated in Juncai's meeting said: "The information he conveyed to Li Keqiang is that we don't necessarily like Trump's approach, but he is not born."
Japan was surprised to China ’s active reconciliation in the past year.According to a Japanese official, a series of friendly attitudes made by China recently must be "given by Best Trump".The official added: "Trump's trade policy has been affecting China's diplomatic position."
However, although the Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is willing to seize any opportunity to alleviate the relationship with China, he is more concerned about maintaining a good relationship with the military alliance in the United States."China hopes that we will be with them directly to criticize Trump's trade policy. Of course, we are very concerned about Trump's trade policy." This official added that "but we basically agree with Trump's related related approvalChina's market access and other (trade and investment) views. "
The Chinese leadership will eventually be one -to -one with the United States, or it will still use a pair of MDASH; mdash; at the same time, in the face of the United States, the European Union, and Japan, this is very important for China, especially in China to continue a high -risk finance in ChinaThe business rectification (this rectification leads to a slowdown in investment and economic growth).However, China has also begun to realize that Trump's trade threat is far more than just empty intimidation.
Trump has repeatedly threatened to punish China on the so -called stolen intellectual property behavior and other unfair trade practices. He has been diluing the risk caused by this threat for more than a year.
In May of this year, the two finally woke up and realized that the threat was not confused.That month, Trump overturned the Treasurer Steven Bull; Steven Mnuchin had previously said that the United States would not fight with China for the time being, and announced that it would lose 34 billion U.S. dollars worth of China in early July.Punishment tariffs for industrial products.
Trump has prepared the third round of tariffs (the original text was published on September 11th, and Trump announced on September 17 that the third round of tariffs mdash; editor's note) will be affected, which will affect the affected.The total value of Chinese goods reached $ 25 billion, which is about half of the exports of China to the United States.
"The Chinese should worry about Trump," Trump's former political adviser Steve Bull; Bunnon (STThe Chinese leadership will eventually be one -to -one with the United States, or it will still use a pair of MDASH; mdash; at the same time, in the face of the United States, the European Union, and Japan, this is very important for China, especially in China to continue a high -risk finance in ChinaThe business rectification (this rectification leads to a slowdown in investment and economic growth).However, China has also begun to realize that Trump's trade threat is far more than just empty intimidation.
Trump has repeatedly threatened to punish China on the so -called stolen intellectual property behavior and other unfair trade practices. He has been diluing the risk caused by this threat for more than a year.
In May of this year, the two finally woke up and realized that the threat was not confused.That month, Trump overturned the Treasurer Steven Bull; Steven Mnuchin had previously said that the United States would not fight with China for the time being, and announced that it would lose 34 billion U.S. dollars worth of China in early July.Punishment tariffs for industrial products.
Trump has prepared the third round of tariffs (the original text was published on September 11th, and Trump announced on September 17 that the third round of tariffs mdash; editor's note) will be affected, which will affect the affected.The total value of Chinese goods reached $ 25 billion, which is about half of the exports of China to the United States.
"The Chinese should worry about Trump," Trump's former political adviser Steve Bull; Steve Bannon said, "They have never encountered such opponents."
In Beijing, more and more officials and analysts now agree with Bannon's point of view, and believe that the continuously upgraded trade war is just the United States "the largest striker of" Chinese "to curb the greater effort."The risk of Sino -US slide to a new Cold War is increasing." Professor of the University of Economic and Trade (UIBE), Tu Xinquan, said, "For China, the United States, and the world, this will be a nightmare."
Wang Chong of the Beijing Fahar Institute said that China's current problems in the United States are not only related to Trump: "Republican and Democrats have reached a consensus that they should work hard to curb China's development." Recently, in a series of authoritative articles published on Chinese publications, Chinese officials warned that China faced a new era of "strategic curb" in the United States' careful planning.
"As the United States defines China as lsquo; strategic competitors RSQUO;, Sino -US relations will be deeply adjusted." Long Guoqiang, deputy director of the State Council Development Research Center (DRC), was on August 29 in "Peoplersquo; S Daily) Published an article saying, "The Soviet Union and Japan had been contained by the United States. With the rapid development of China's economy and the rise in comprehensive national strength, the United States' cognition and emotions for China have shifted in an all -round way, redefining Sino -US relations."
"The Trump administration's determination to curb China's determination is becoming more and more obvious," Yin Hong added that the experts of Renmin University of China (Renmin University), "I think the next round of tariffs are inevitable (Trump has not yet announced its collection in the interview.The third round of tariffs mdash; mdash; editor's note). This trade war will continue for a long time. "
A few days after the publishing of Long Guoqiang's article, the Communist Party's journal "Seeking" published an unsigned comment article, and also accused the United States of "creating public opinion for the development of developing countries, especially China's development."
Even those who are criticizing China's trade and economic policies who are criticized for Chinese trade and economic policies believe that this interpretation of Trump's final goal is likely to be right.They said that Trump's only possible trade agreement to China is impossible to give in China because this will include the CCP's concessions from how the CCP manages industrial policies to all issues such as state -owned enterprises and RMB.
Others believe that Trump's ideal goal is actually that he does not reach an agreement at all, so that he can impose tariffs on all China -US products for a long time, thereby completely changing the global supply chain.
"People in the Trump administration now understand that Trump may be flexible in many things, but what he is willing to die is China." Bannon said, "Trump's focus is to"China transferred out. "
One of the instances that shows that this strategy may work is: Ford Motor (Ford) announced on August 31 that it will cancel plans to export Focus (Focus) to the United States from next year to the United States.These cars were originally affected by the Trump administration's impact on Chinese cars in August.
Great Wall, the most successful local sports vendor (SUV) manufacturer (SUV) manufacturer in China, is also re -evaluating its plans to export to the United States.
Another person who provides suggestions to Chinese policy makers said: "US national security agencies have confirmed China as strategic competitors. This is reasonable. Their strategy is to curb China through trade."
In contrast to the tough theory in the China Party Newspaper, Trump ’s actions to impose tariffs on China’ s exported products this summer have made Chinese officials very disturbing MDash; MDASH; they have already been busy with difficult financial reforms.In this situation, it is not ideal to fight a trade war with the United States, but more and more Chinese officials and their consultants also believe that the trade war is inevitable MDash; MDash; at least in the short term.
At present, what they think they can do is to try to limit the inevitable damage."We once hoped that the continuously upgraded trade war could force American companies to persuade Trump to turn around, but this method did not work." Professor Tu Xinquan said, "Therefore, we need to re -consider our countermeasures and should not be too aggressive.If Trump wants to be a lunatic, go with him. "
Liu Xinning Beijing, Robin Bull; Robin Harding Report to Tokyo
Translator/He Li
