In the first half of this year, in the process of deleveraging, state -owned enterprises and private enterprises were significantly differentiated.

On September 18, a "China Devil Report (2018 in the second quarter of 2018)" (hereinafter referred to as the report) released by a research center under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences pointed out that the leverage ratio of the non -financial enterprise sector dropped from 157%at the end of 2017 to the end of 2017 to156.4%at the end of the second quarter of 2018, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points in half a year.

It is worth noting that state -owned enterprises and private enterprises have different MDash; mdash; state -owned enterprise asset -liability ratio decreases, while private enterprises are passively added leverage.Among them, the asset -liability ratio of state -owned enterprises fell from 65.7%at the end of 2017 to 65%; private industrial enterprises increased their leverage, and the asset -liability ratio increased from 51.6%at the end of 2017 to 55.8%.The "Report" was published by the National Assets Library Table Research Center of the National Financial and Development Laboratory of the Academy of Social Sciences.

The report analysis states that one of the reasons for the decline in state -owned enterprise asset -liability ratios is that liabilities have decreased, but the greater contribution is the increase in assets MDash; MDash; at the end of the second quarter, the liabilities of state -owned industrial enterprises decreased by 0.5%from the end of last year, but assets increased by 0.9%.

The rising asset -liability ratio of private enterprises is that the assets are seriously shrinking. Although the assets and liabilities are shrinking at the same time, the asset party has decreased greater, resulting in the asset -liability ratio passively increased MDASH; mdash;Assets decreased by 7.8%.

In this regard, the report believes that non -financial enterprises, especially state -owned enterprises, deleveraging are the key to structural deleveraging of this round of structural deleveraging. Since last year, the deleveraging of state -owned enterprises has been slightly effective, but sustainability is yet to be observed; because state -owned enterprises deleveraging is deleveraging;The improvement of effectiveness and income end is greater.

"In the past two years, under the influence of de -capacity and environmental protection storms, the supply of supply caused by compulsory production restrictions has made the profit growth rate of the middle and upstream industries considerable, and the proportion of state -owned enterprises in the middle and upstream industries has a high proportion, which drives its profit growth to significantlyMoisturizing.

"The report pointed out that the earnings of enterprises are too concentrated in the middle and upstream industries and the imbalance of the distorted structure of state -owned enterprises, which will affect the sustainability of improvement of profits." "In the case of changes in the profit of the price of the companyFor temporary and nominal improvements, the efficiency of corporate investment has not treated."

What is more noteworthy is that while state -owned enterprises are slightly deleveraging, the asset -liability ratio of private industrial enterprises has increased significantly since the beginning of this year."" It formed a sharp contrast.

"This wave of leverage for private enterprises is not accompanied by active leverage with economic recovery, but more passive leverage under the common action of the poor financing environment and the common action of state -owned enterprises."The significant increase in the cost of credit shrinkage during credit contraction has led to a significant increase in corporate expenditure; on the other hand, upstream enterprises have eroded the profits of middle and lower reaches, and the impact of the tension on funds on the operating benefits and profit retention of the enterprise has reduced the proportion of equity capital.

On the whole, the report believes that the foundation of the deleveraging of state -owned enterprises is not solid, and private enterprises have misplaced the deleveraging subjects formed by mistakenly injured to a certain extent.To break this dilemma, it should be cut in from efficiency improvement, decisively break the rigid exchange, and accelerate the "zombie enterprise" to clear, release the credit resources it occupied, and promote the allocation of debt funds to emerging industrial departments, high -efficiency enterprises and private enterprises.

Regarding the recent regulatory policy adjustment, the report states that fine -tuning is suitable, but the micro -regulatory policy is different from the macro -control policy and does not have anti -cyclical regulation effects. It should not be adjusted frequently for short -term fluctuations, and the policy direction and intensity should be relatively consistent.Otherwise, not only the credibility of the regulatory policy is damaged, but also affects market expectations and distorting market entities.

In addition, the report pointed out that in order to achieve perfect deleveraging, the debt clearance mechanism should be allowed to play a role.

"At present, there is a point of view to achieve perfect deleveraging with a loose monetary environment. This is actually a misunderstanding." The report states that Dario of Bridge Fund pointed out the three stages of deleveraging.The first phase of perfect deleveraging is the process of clearing the market, which will lead to bad deleveraging deleveraging; and the next stage of perfect deleveraging is excessive increased credit stimulus, leading to bad inflation deleveraging.

Therefore, the report believes that the economic contraction caused by the clearing market should be regarded as the premise of the perfect removal of the bar.Decrease, the idea of just deleveraging without debt is wishful.

"Given that the credit stimulus policy is really easy to use, it is easy to be abused compared with other options of the government, which leads to lsquo; bad inflation deleverage rsquo;" The report believes that the current removal and bar needs to be tight as a whole.The currency environment, not the opposite.

Since the second quarter of this year, especially since July, the market's emotional tension is under deleveraging, the uncertainty brought by the Sino -US trade war, and the downward pressure on the economy.In this context, macro policies are appropriately fine -tuned, relaxed monetary and financial regulatory policies, supplemented by more active fiscal policies, and required to ensure the reasonable financing needs of local government financing platforms and financial support in infrastructure projects.Increase small and micro -credit, and support the development of consumer credit.(See "Caixin Weekly", the 30th report of 2018, "Devarut leverage variation"

The report data shows that as of the end of the second quarter of 2018, the leverage ratio of the real economic department increased slightly, from 242.1%at the end of 2017 to 242.7%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points, which basically remained stable.Among them, the leverage ratio of the residential sector rose by 2 percentage points, and the non -financial corporate lever rate dropped from 157%to 156.4%, and the leverage ratio of government departments dropped from 36.2%to 35.3%.

In addition, financial supervision has strengthened to promote the deleveraging of the financial sector, and the leverage ratio of the financial sector measured from the asset side decreased from 69.7%at the end of 2017 to 64.3%, while the debt square leverage rate dropped from 62.9%to 61.6%.■