Author: Du Zhenhua
The nightmare of the expansion of the US -China trade war cannot be avoided after all.On September 17, the United States officially announced that nearly 6,000 imports of imported products in China, with a value of US $ 200 billion, levied 10%tariffs from the 24th; plus the amount of 50 billion U.S. dollars of tariffs levied from July to August,Covering half of the imported goods in mainland China.The US -China trade war has been "fully beaten", and countries around the world have trembling the impact on themselves, and they are afraid that they will be affected by the bombs of the two strong fighting.Originally, President Trump, who had a businessman personality, was likely to be "screaming". After the concession in Beijing was satisfactory, these tariffs were removed. Helplessly Beijing had already released, and he would not take a bow in unilateral action in the United States."The retaliatory practice makes it unable to have optimistic ideas for the trade war.
This is the United States' unable to cooperate with China to cooperate with the United States, and the bilateral consultation failed to get a breakthrough (3 ministerial -level consultations in May to June, in August, in August, and in SeptemberUnder consultation), consecutive waves of punitive tariffs.This object is mainly based on household consumer goods, but excluded several products that ordinary families in the United States cannot avoid, such as some smart devices, hard hats, strollers, textiles, agricultural products and chemical products.In early 2019, tariffs were raised to 25%.This kind of approach that does not cost people feel that the US government has eaten a scales, and it will never end without the purpose.The first strongest "Xiu Xidde trap" is not allowed to surpass.
According to media reports, Fang Xinghai, vice chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission of China, said that China's economy is strong and has enough financial and monetary policy to deal with challenges and has prepared for the worst situation;Tariffs are only 0.7%of China's GDP.Fang's overseas funds that have flowed into the Chinese capital market in the first eight months of this year reached US $ 210 billion, which confirmed the positive attitude of all parties to the Chinese economy, and believed that the short -term countercurrent in the United States would eventually return to the right track.
Although the trade war will cause both parties and related third parties to be harmed, Fang's quasi -official view seems too optimistic. The so -called impact of up to 0.7%of the so -called GDP should be a direct impact.Individual impacts such as reducing), investment (corporate avoidance of US tariffs), consumption (rising prices).For example, some foreign companies have considered withdrawn from the mainland and transferred to Vietnam or other countries that are not affected. Taiwanese businessmen may withdraw Taiwan or invest in the United States needed for the US market.The same logic is of course applicable to the United States, so it is a defeat.
Of course, Trump will not be recognized by the economics community, and the Nobel Prize winner Steigriz has strictly attacked Trump, saying that the United States has always complied with international rules and should be resolved to the World Trade Organization mechanism.The original specifications should be managed to modify the rules of the WTO.At present, Trump is working hard, making the United States a bad child who has trouble in the world, and can only use sanctions to stop him.
In any case, Taiwan's important part of the US -China trade value chain will inevitably be impacted.In addition to Taiwanese businessmen who carefully evaluate the decentralized market, transfer investment land, or change the product portfolio, the government should understand the influence of different types of Taiwanese businessmen as soon as possible, and where the government can assist in the assistance of the government to actively propose a party or reduce the impact of impactThe Tao, even the crisis of the crisis into a turnaround, proposed that relatively favorable Taiwanese businessmen returned to Taiwan to invest in supporting facilities, allowing Taiwan to be a beneficiary of the trade war.Taiwan should also propose a mechanism reform that can solve the mechanism reform of "a large amount of trade imbalance" in combination with other members, eliminate the problems of making problems in the United States, and ensure the smoothness of world trade.
(The author is also an associate professor of the National Development Research Institute of National Taiwan University)
