Current affairs perspective
The U.S.'s hearing of the US $ 200 billion of goods in China is over. Although the US Chamber of Commerce and most companies participating in the hearing do not agree that the United States will continue to trade against China, Trump seems to be reluctant to accept corporate opinions and be alone.
Not only $ 200 billion, Trump also prepared tariffs on another $ 267 billion in Chinese goods.This means that the United States will impose tariffs on all imported goods from China.
Trump's trade war on China was "full of firepower", and China could not shrink back in the face of the enemy's artillery fire.Because China has few imports from the United States, it is impossible to respond to the trade war.It seems that China has fallen off, but this is also equivalent to the United States forcing China to implement trade self -defense in more ways.
This is terrible, because this is the two strong powers in the world's strongest comprehensive strength and the largest trade volume. Such a trade war is strategic, and the two defeats are foreseeable ending.The passive Chinese China will be scarred, and the United States, which actively attacks, will also be bruised.
However, the White House's footsteps against China could not stop, and step by step towards the danger.
The first is that Trump's way to achieve the "priority of the United States" is the trade war of major trading partners, that is, forcing the trading partners to yield in a limit pressure.So far, this means in the United States have signed Mexico's alliance under the city that update the "North American Free Trade Agreement" (NAFTA), which is under pressure to put pressure on Canada in turn.In addition, the United States and Europe also reached a trade consensus after some contests, and the United States implemented tariff exemptions on European cars.
The US -Japan negotiations are still ongoing, but Trump has issued a threat to Japan, suggesting that it is necessary to impose tariffs on Japanese cars.Due to the particularity of the US -Japan relations and the characteristics of the Abe government that has always followed the United States, it is a high probability event that the United States has cheaper from Japan.Taking the front of the front, concentrating the firepower against China, it has always been Trump's trade war strategy, and reached a settlement with allies and partners, which does not rule out the formation of a common combination of China.Trump has repeatedly preached the victory of the United States on Twitter. In addition to strength and deterrent public relations, it is probably because of the reconciliation of the United States and allies.
Second, the Sino -US trade war has not achieved the effect of the United States.China and the United States have conducted a $ 100 billion trick. China has a tit -for -tat. If the United States compromises, the trade war from the United States is equal to defeat.Therefore, the United States can only increase yards, and it is not enough for US $ 200 billion to open the fire. All Chinese products have been increased to increase the limit to the extreme and gamble in China to yield.
What is the goal of the United States?Obviously it is not a problem of trade deficit in China, but a structurally blocking the way forward of China's manufacturing renewal and high -tech development.According to Kurdlo, director of the White House National Economic Commission, the United States seeks "zero tariffs, zero non -tariff barriers, zero subsidies, stop stealing intellectual property rights, stop technology transfer, allows Americans (in China) to own its own company."He believes that "these are the demands for several months in the United States, but so far, these requirements have not been met."
Third, Trump launched a trade war against China before the midterm election, which is equivalent to throwing a dangerous bomb, which is already difficult to collect water.Although Trump's move was opposed by companies with trade relations with China, there was also a lot of iron tickets.If Trump compromises, he will be abandoned by iron tickets. At a critical moment of the midterm elections, Trump naturally dare not retreat, and can only be hard all the way.Coupled with the support of the White House Eagle Staff, and the "scandal of Russia" and the White House anonymous "deep throat" public attack on Trump, and a commonly matched trading gambling with China, the defeat is just letting Trump just let TrumpThe bad situation becomes worse, and Chinese compromises will become Trump's biggest political achievements, reversing his slump in the White House, American society and the world.As a result, Trump's layout of strategic decisive battles "fully fire" in China.
That's how China is so.The decisive battle against China, China cannot retreat.On the one hand, the demands of the United States make China unable to compromise from a technical level.The so -called "zero tariffs, zero non -tariff barriers, zero subsidies", the United States cannot do it, and other countries cannot do it.A developed superpowers put forward such a request to a world's largest developing country, which not only violates the basic principles of the World Trade Organization, but also reflects the unreasonable bullying of the United States.
On the other hand, China is required to "stop stealing intellectual property rights, stop technology transfer, allow Americans (in China) to own its own company", and the last China has made concessions, but regarding "intellectual property" and "technical transfer", "technical transfer",, "technical transfer",, "technical transfer", "technical transfer",, "technical transfer",, "technical transfer", "technical transfer",, technology transfer, "technology transfer", "technical transfer", "technical transfer", "technical transfer",, "technology transfer", "technical transfer",, "technical transfer", "technical transfer",, "technical transfer", "technical transfer",, technology transfer "," technical transfer ",," technical transfer ",," technical transfer "," technical transfer ",, technology transfer", "technical transfer",, technology transfer "," technical transfer ",," technical transfer ",, technology transfer", "technical transfer",, technology transfer "," technical transfer ",, technology transfer", "technical transfer",, technology transfer, "technology transfer", "technical transfer".China believes that this is the "crime of adding" in the United States.
If the United States bites the above requirements, China can only be accompanied to the end, even if it tighten the lumbar band to live a bitter life.China and the United States have had four trade consultations, and China has doubts about the sincerity of the United States.The negotiation is that both parties compromise can reach a consensus, but one party will never give up, and the other party only has a tit -for -tat.
The footsteps of the US trade war against China could not stop, and they were on the way back.
The author is a senior researcher at the Chahar Society of China, a guest researcher at the Chongyang Financial Research Institute of Renmin University of China
