Pay attention to the phenomenon of the growth of retail consumption in China and the United States

Source: Industrial and Commercial Society

In mid -August, the US Department of Commerce and the National Bureau of Statistics of the Mainland, each announced in July retail consumption statistics, statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics of the mainland show that the total retail sales of consumer goods in mainland China in July8.8 %, the growth rate was 0.2 percentage points less than June; the retail amount announced by the US Department of Commerce was $ 507.5 billion, with an annual growth rate of 6.4 %.

If two signs of mainland China and the United States are removed, it is temporarily avoided in Andrdquo, "the total retail sales of the total retail of social consumer goods; the gap between the" total retail andRDQUO; statistical definition, the retail amount of the mainland in July, if the amount of retail sales in July will be 6.8 against 1 US dollars.The exchange rate is converted, about 452 billion U.S. dollars, which is already 90 % of the total retail sales, and the growth rate of mainland China is 2.4 percentage points higher than the United States.The mainland beyond the United States is just around the corner.

However, whether it is the economics, financial media, or the stock market, the interpretation of retail figures announced by China and the United States is completely different from the above observation.

The sales of more than 500 billion US dollars in the United States in the United States are considered to be an important indicator of strong economic recovery. From May since May to the present, it has exceeded $ 500 billion for three consecutive months, and it is the financial tsunami to this day.The rare trend of growth, Wall Street has also been very happy for Andrdquo; "annual increase of 6.4 % Andrdquo; in the past few months, the US leader retail stocks, including Wal -Mart, have risen in an all -round way.$ 100 million, challenging the goal of "total market value of 1 trillion US dollars andRDQUO; and" but "but" and ANDRDQUO; and Andrdquo; almost no suspense Andrdquo;.

Surprisingly, compared to the strong mainland, at the press conference held by the State Council's Journalism Office, the reporter's questions were concentrated on the question of "growth rate falling and falling on Andrdquo;And "0.1, 0.2 percentage points of monthly fluctuations are relatively normal Andrdquo;, the total retail sales of social consumer goods in the first seven months of this year increased by 9.3 % and Andrdquo;

In the following days, the performance of retail figures from all walks of life in mainland China appeared in a large -scale review. For example, Zhang Ming, chief economist of Ping An Securities, pointed out in a forum in mid -August that the United States, the euro zone, the United Kingdom, Japan, Japan"From the coordinated recovery to Andrdquo; this year, the US economy has grown high from collaborative recovery to and differentiation, but the growth of other countries has slowed down, and the economic growth rate of major countries in emerging markets is down. Although the economic growth rate of the mainland in the second quarter is still6.7 %, but And "6.9 % compared to 6.9 % compared to the second half of last year.Andrdquo;

In other words, everyone is not worried about the size of the absolute value, and the ups and downs of growth trends are the focus of observation.The US retail amount continues to grow, and the annual growth rate continues to reach a new high. Each release is higher than the average expected value of experts, and e -commerce continues to create an annual growth rate of more than 15 %. The high -speed growth of new retail will help the overall retail industry as a wholeIn healthy transformation, the traditional US retail industry has crossed the so -called death cross. A large number of traditional department store companies that cannot be transformed are withdrawn from the market. Amazon, Messi, and new e -commerce platforms that sprung up after rain, on the new online retailThe platform shows its skills. Therefore, the stock price of leading retail companies in the United States has risen this year. The index of the entire industry defeats the financial industry, the Internet technology industry, and transportation industry, becoming the most dazzling ethnic group in the stock market.

In contrast, on the basis of high growth, the mainland has many worrying phenomena, such as car sales. The mainland is already the world's largest automotive market. This year, it is expected to challenge the historical record of 30 million units per year, but 7The sales volume of cars in the month was 809,000, a decrease of 3.8 % compared with the same period last year, and a larger drop of 7.0 % from June.%, Compared with June, also plummeted by 6.9 %.

Although the sales of car sales in the first seven months have increased slightly, the decline in the collapse in recent months has made everyone worry.In 2018, the automotive market Andrdquo; and Andrdquo; and of "this year's mainland auto market may have increased zero growth for the first time.Andrdquo;

Not just car sales, the growth rate of the overall retail consumption amount is the lowest level in 15 years. Looking back at SARS in 2003, the annual growth rate of the mainland's retail sales has not been lower than 10 %.The 4 trillion fiscal stimulus plan even set a historical peak of 23 %.

Similar signals have emerged everywhere in various fields. For example, monitoring data from the National Commercial Information Center of China show that 50 key large retail companies in the mainland have decreased by 3.9 % year -on -year in July this year.The decline in retail sales is particularly obvious.

Taiwan ’s exports this year have continued to reach a new high, which mainly benefits from the pushes of the US economic recovery. However, the growth rate of the mainland retail market has slowed down, but it will definitely step on the brakes of Taiwan’ s recovery.Taiwan is not only politically affected by the corner of the United States and China, but the economy is also facing the same pull. The growth rate of retail and automobile sales in the mainland in July is a signal that cannot be ignored.The policy regulation between Taiwan can hold Ying Paotai with a difficult economic recovery of Taiwan, and it is auspicious.