The Trump administration's overwhelming trade measures over the past two years have subverted the global economic and trade system, and almost all countries were involved in the vortex of the trade war.The United States will be elected on the November 6th period, which is an important indicator of whether Trump can be re -elected in 2020.All countries are evaluating that if the Republican Party is not selected well, it only needs to endure two years at most. On the other hand, if the Republican Party performed badly, the chance of Trump's re -election in 2020, and countries must do well with Trump for six years.Prepare.
The most critical indicator of this election is that the Republican Party is currently the majority of the two scholars.The House of Representatives is a comprehensive election. Because some of the current Republican parties are facing the powerful challenges of the Democratic Party, some may come back, so the Democratic Party has the opportunity to recapture the majority.As for the Senate, only one -third of the seats are re -elected, but because there are few seats for the current Republican Party, it is not easy to change the current structure of the Senate.However, if the Republican party loses the majority of the two houses, not only Trump's re -election has a great time, but also may make Trump be louder with Congress, and the strength of the US trade protection policy may also weaken.
According to the survey, the current US domestic tough trade policy support for Trump is not low, so Trump will inevitably promote it before the election.The main focus is on the tariff war against Mainland China under Article 301. At present, tariffs on 50 billion US dollars imports from the mainland will be increased. The trade measures for vehicles and their components will be increased before election.Taiwan will be affected in October, and Taiwan will be affected, and it must be responded.
At present, the trade war between the United States and the mainland has deepened its impact on Taiwan due to the continuous expansion of the product scope of tariffs on the two parties.In addition to directly affecting the Taichung and the United States triangle trade, coupled with the close relationship between Taiwan and the mainland, it will also affect the supply chain of Taiwan's industry.
According to the investigation of vehicles and its components in the United States, the United States is the largest exporter of Taiwan's auto components, and the export value in 2017 is about $ 7 billion.Although the automotive components exported to Taiwan are mainly based on the after -sales service market, which is separated from the general original component market, if the steel products are severely taxed in the future, it will inevitably have an impact on Taiwan exports.
In the case of previous 232 steel products, Taiwan has strongly strived to strive for US tariff exemption, but it is still 25%heavy tax.In order to avoid repeating the same mistakes of steel products, Taiwan should take the initiative to attack and change from seeking exemptions afterwards and not being included before the matter.At present, during the investigation stage, Taiwan should propose a Taiwan position during a public audience in the United States. The main argument is that Taiwan exported to the United States to the United States has no adverse effects on the American industry.; And if tariffs are imposed on car after -sales components, it will increase domestic auto repair prices in the United States, which is not good for the public in the United States.Taiwan can also explain the high degree of complementarity of the Taiwan -US industry through the partners of manufacturers in the United States, so as to strive for Taiwan's exports of American automobile components and not be included in the tariff list.
In terms of exchange rate manipulation issues, in the previous April report in Taiwan, Taiwan has been removed from the list of exchange rate manipulation observation lists; but because the US trade deficit has not been reduced, Trump has long lost patience and repeatedly named mainland China.The European Union and other countries manipulate the exchange rate, underestimate the currency of the country, and suppress the interest rate, which will continue to strengthen the US dollar and erode the American competitive advantage.The United States does not hesitate to set off a global exchange rate war, so it may increase the list of exchange rates in the October report, and Taiwan may also be affected; the United States may even directly require the New Taiwan dollar to appreciate.Don't neglect.
Since the United States will not easily let go of the trade war, the main opponent's mainland China is also going on, and there is no intention of shrinking; other countries have also expanded trade protection measures in order to protect themselves, thus suppressing global trade and economic growth.The major international economic and trade institutions have made a breakdown in the economic growth rate of this year. Therefore, in addition to actively acting as a impact on Taiwan's impact on Taiwan, Taiwan should also try to boost the declining economic growth momentum.
This article comes from the Economic Daily, and the article only represents the author's point of view
