In response to the US -China trade war, Beijing should not touch hard

Economic Daily News

The fourth round of trade negotiations in the United States and China ended last week. From each other's words, it reflects that Washington and Beijing have a lot of differences in the problem of problems. It is difficult to avoid the continued rise in the trade war.What is most concerned about is that the trade war that is easy to win in US President Trump's mouth will impact the economy of mainland China?How much is the effect on Taiwan?What variables will be there in the future?

So far, the first wave of the U.S. -China trade war has been imposed on July 6 to each other about 34 billion US dollars of goods;A total of $ 50 billion in goods levied each other, accounting for about 2.2%of China's total exports, and the implementation time is still short, and the impact is limited.The strong lethality of the follow -up is that the US $ 25%tariff list of US $ 200 billion of goods in China has been held for six days on August 20, and it will be implemented as soon as September.In addition, the United States' various restrictions on China's investment and technology output will be launched one after another with relevant bills; the United States has taxed global steel and aluminum courses, and the ultimate goal is to block China's dumping; Trump has continuously attacked China to manipulate the RMB exchange rate. This year, this yearIn mid -October, the latest exchange rate policy report on the US Treasury is likely to list China as a exchange rate manipulator.These policies and measures will put more and more pressure on the Chinese economy.

The basic face of China's economy is still stable, but the trade war has significantly increased the risk of economic and downward pressure to a certain extent.In the first half of this year, mainland GDP increased by 6.7%, but in July, net exports, investment and consumption of fixed assets and consumption fell. It is estimated that the growth of GDP in the second half of the year may fall to 6.3%. Another survey shows that the unemployment rate in China in July was from June 4.8%in June 4.8%.Stepping to 5.1%, close to the official upper limit of 5.5%.According to experts, the trade war may cause a decrease in mainland GDP by 0.7 to 1 percentage point. Next year, China's economic stability will inevitably be challenged.

The influence of financial noodles has also been rapidly fermented. In the past eight months, the Chinese stock market has fallen by nearly 30 %, and the total market value of the stock market has shrunk sharply. By July, it has given the world's second largest market position to Japan. From April, the yuan has been against the US dollar to the US dollar so far.The exchange rate has depreciated by 9%. Although it can offset the impact of some US tariffs, it not only triggers the concerns of the external movement of funds, but also makes the stock market face greater downward risks, but also causes the rise of import prices.More pressure.

From the perspective of the industry, the United States launched the most targeted trade war "Made in China 2025Andrdquo; related products have also begun to be affected. According to information on the National Bureau of Statistics of China, the annual growth rate of Chinese robotics has decreased sharply from May 35.1%in May 35.1%.By 6.3%of July, it was obviously affected by the taxation of industrial machinery and robotics parts. The VOA Chinese website also pointed out that Chinese officials are most concerned about moving production lines out of China due to the continued trade war, which may cause coastal coastal, which may cause coastal coastal, which may cause coastal coastal, which may cause coastal coastal, which may cause coastal coastal, which may cause coastal coastal, which may cause coastal coastal, which may cause coastal coastal, which may cause coastal coastal, which may cause coastal coastal, which may cause coastal coastal, which may cause coastal coastal, which may cause coastal coastal, which may cause coastal coastal, which may cause coastal coastal, which may cause coastal coastal.Large -scale unemployment and social problems in a wealthy area.

The changes in the objective economic situation show that the impact of the US -China trade war on the Chinese economy is gradually rising., To stabilize foreign trade, stabilize foreign capital and stabilize the "Six Stability Andrdquo; instructions, in response to the Trump administration's series of trade sanctions on China.The attitude of war onrdquo; from a more pragmatic perspective, hopes to further negotiate with the United States to ease the trade war.

The impact of the U.S. -China trade war has a profound and high impact on Taiwan, because Taiwan relies heavily on exports, especially on the triangle trade model of "Taiwan receiving orders, mainland production, and exporting to Andrdquo;Mainland Taiwanese businessmen will constitute a considerable impact. Some foreign investment institutions evaluate Taiwan's impact may be more serious than the mainland. This is also the key to Taiwan's facing the US -China trade war. It must be highly alert to the key to responding to.

From the middle and long term, the launch of a trade war in the United States is to prevent Andrdquo, "the rise of China's rise in mainland China, and threatening the global status of the United States, and it is the consensus between the United States and the Republican parties.The economic advantages and strong technological forces that still have the world's still have. The Beijing authorities do not Andrdquo; are the best strategies to resolve the crisis.The economy is the lifeblood of Taiwan. How to seek a new way out under the struggle between the two strongs is undoubtedly the most difficult challenges we must face in the next decades.