Viewpoint
Andrdquo, the "Thirty -year War of the Thirty -year War of 1618 to 1648, was one of the most intense and most intense and" world wars Andrdquo;.Although the war is a international conflict from religious reforms, there are also factors that have domestic politics and empires, which make the war out of control.There are many countries participating in the war, including the Holy Roman Empire, Spain, Portugal, France, Britain, Sweden, and Russia.After years of war, the national forces have begun to change, and old powers such as the empire and Spain have gradually declined, while Britain, France, and Sweden have replaced them.
Someone believes that this is now called Andrdquo; (Multipolarity) (that is, no country has an obvious advantage).Balance of Power). Furthermore, many historians believe that the solution of 1648 has created the concept of modern national sovereignty and the behavioral norms that do not interfere with other domestic politics."
In terms of political, social culture, and economic background, the seventeenth -century Europe has its similarities with the Middle East now.In terms of the duration and strength of the conflict, the game of the great power directly deepened the complexity of the war, and gradually upgraded the original rebellion activities in some countries to the scale of the civil war.Denmark and Sweden arena in areas. Similarly, on the current battlefields of Syria and Yemen, multiple Arab countries, coupled with the United States and Russia, to help local agents, to raise the original domestic rebellion toAt the level of international conflict, the difficulty of resolving the crisis is added.
In terms of power distribution, European Europe is also similar to the Middle East, and no country has an overwhelming advantage.Excluding the role of the United States as the offshore balance hand (OFFSHORE BALANCER), the national strength of the Middle East countries has a slight advantage in Israel in except that Israel has an overwhelming national strength.Trees with force and change the policy direction of other countries.
In religion, the confrontation between Catholicism and Protestantism is the main reason for the 30 -year war; in the current political alliance in the Middle East conflict, religious division also occurs.Today, the denominations between Sunni -faction and Iran headed by Saudi Arabia are also internal divisions of Islam.For some people, they are not only fighting for national security, but also for religious absolute truths, so it makes compromises more difficult to achieve.
As a sponsor, Michael Axworthy and Patrick Milton once wrote in "Foreign Affairs" that the peace plan must be based on the original traditional religion, legal and political structure in the Middle East.In addition, the two scholars summarized the experience of the 17th century and put forward three principles:
First of all, through the protection of citizens, the rulers of their rulers are given, and the rights of citizens are given to citizens, and lawsuits are filed to higher legal authority, thereby restricting the sovereignty of the country or the rulers.Although there is no existing super -dominated judicial institution in the Middle East, the two also pointed out that the United Nations, as a super sovereign entity, has a mechanism for international courts and mediation conflicts, which can achieve the same effect.However, although the above concepts are theoretically, in fact, in fact, in fact, some countries have the opportunity to refuse to accept sovereignty to maintain regional peace.Furthermore, according to the current political voting system of the United Nations Security Council, it is difficult to imagine the five permanent members of the five most common members and will give up the veto power that can control the overall situation.
Secondly, the specifications that External Guarantors can enforce and conclude to ensure that countries respect the basic rights of people in religion, property, and procedures in order to realize peace.However, in the current chaos in the Middle East, it is difficult to say that the country can be the ability and authority of external guarantors.At present, the United States and Russia intervene in the Middle East affairs. Their policy is obviously an extension of national interests, and its position is clear, so that the two countries can have moral prestige during mediation and ensure that all countries can abide by the rules of the game.Although the original intention of the United Nations can act as the role of external guarantors, it is difficult to implement and discuss it under the Boyi of reality and politics.
Finally, the third principle inspired by the "peacekeeping" is to establish the "normative year), that is, the water sideline that draws time, frozen the border of various countries at some time, as one of the solutions, that is, similar to similarThe UN General Assembly handled the same resolution No. 242 in Pakistani many years ago.
There is no doubt that a group of scholars will compare the "West Fayria peace" in the 17th century with the chaos in the Middle East today, and find out the feasible Andrdquo; it is worthy of recognition and respect.There are still many conflicts of different sizes in the Middle East. There are already a large number of civilians and injuries, but they have not been forced to sit down in negotiations, find things in common, and resolve conflicts. At present, if the international community intends to completely solve the Middle East issue, it must first be first.Strictly restrict large powers to take the opportunity to mix other domestic politics. After all, from the war in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen, it can be seen that when a large country reached out and stirred the situation, the only result will only heat up the original situation, extend the war, stretch it, and the end of suffering.They are all civilians. Although the suggestions of scholars seem to be "separated from the ground andrdquo; referring to the reality), the grand concept also has its starting point and process, so it must not be scrapped because of choking.
