In July 2018, the year -on -year growth rate of the total retail sales of Chinese social consumer goods fell to 8.8%. The last time the consumption data of residents appeared in the last time was a period of currency tightening 15 years ago.This means that the income of residents has increased relatively limited in recent years.At the same time, in the first seven months of 2018, the total personal income tax of residents was 922.5 billion yuan, an increase of 20.6%year -on -year, and it has exceeded the annual level of 2015.This also means that the income of residents increases a large increase.
Two extremely difficult fake data pointed to the two very opposite directions.The only possible explanation is that the gap between the rich and the poor in China is rapidly widening.
The accelerated differentiation of social income is making the economy and society present different from the previous vulnerability.If the clock is inverted for 20 years, since the mid -to -late 1990s, with the large number of emergence of township enterprises and the establishment of the market economy in the city, China has really entered the stage of improvement of the income structure.Economic improvement opportunities.The average annual increase of new migrant workers into the city per year is that they carry the urbanization of China on their shoulders. Only then can they have the prosperity of the city. Only the rise of the middle class can the stable progress of the economic and social.
However, the improvement of the social income structure has changed from 2011, and the income growth rate of migrant workers from migrant workers fell rapidly from 21.2%in 2011 to 6.4%in 2017, which is not as good as the growth rate of GDP.Around 2011, the ratio of vacancy in urban positions to the number of job seekers exceeded 1 for the first time, and by the end of 2017, it increased to an average of 1.22 people competing for 1 job.The income of low -income groups has become more weak, the population flow has gradually slowed down, and employment opportunities are reduced by a large amount, which means that the economic and social structure is gradually solidified.
In order to seize the opportunity to change destiny, young people can only choose to flow towards a few central cities, and there is only a front -line opportunity to increase income.This is the root cause of rents soaring in Beijing, Chengdu Tianfu New District and other places.Even if the land transfer system that does not raise the cost of housing, even if there is no capital to the rental market, the rising rent of a few first -tier cities is almost a certain event.
The gap between the rich and the poor is always self -strengthening, and the rise in rent is just the beginning.For cities where young people are concentrated in, the cost of clothing, food, and transportation is risky.
Those wealthy classes that are the first to hold assets, staring at the market to rotate, and industries that are forced to increase due to rising costs, they look ruthless and ruthlessly and ruthlessly and ruthlessly on the young people who are eager to cross the class.Morality, a society where every income structure began to deteriorate, seems to go through such a process: young people have to pay greater economic costs in order to obtain less social resources. Correspondingly, most of them have no chance to make it so on.People who have a step across a step.
It is on them that a significant tendency to downgrade consumption is reflected.The success of Pinduoduo aiming at the low -end consumer market has achieved the social needs of consumer downgrade, which is not related to factors such as corporate morality and intellectual property rights of corporate morality and intellectual property rights.
Consumption downgrade has been truthfully reflected in the decline in the growth rate of the total retail sales of consumer goods.Food, food, housing, and transportation is the basic living expenditure of residents and enterprises. With inflation and economic growth, the growth rate of total consumption data is a relatively stable indicator in the macro economy.The decline in the trend of this macro indicator shows that in addition to residents, there are many companies that are also consuming in clothing and shrinking food, open source, and employees who work for them.
On the other hand, middle -aged people who started working around 2000 enjoyed a complete stage of social income rising. Most of them had completed a certain amount of wealth accumulation. Due to the progress of tax rates, the personal income tax data brought about the progress of the personal income tax.
So, are those people who have completed their income leaps and rising classes have been safe since then?The deterioration of income distribution, and the vulnerability of the economic and social, will not fall down.Defending property is as difficult as obtaining property.Coupled with the downward settlement of the economic cycle, Andrdquo, Andrdquo; the demand for wealth preservation and appreciation is unprecedentedly high. Therefore, people see that people with personal wealth reaches tens of millions of people still sleep on the road just to buy a house to buy a lottery.A lot of wealth management, funds, and trust funds have flowed out of the bank's balance sheet, and hundreds of millions of PE and VCs have invested in only a few PPT airlift projects.
The relative surplus of capital and even the flood of capital is the most amazing economic phenomenon since the reform and opening up.Unfortunately, wherever capital flows, wherever it will create "financial refugees andrdquo; one of the reasons is the unstable asset price. In 2015, the A -share index fell 30%within 15 trading days, and it fell 30%within 15 trading days.The total market value has evaporated by 26 trillion, and the per capita book wealth has been erased by 500,000. In early 2018, the total market value of the A -shares was evaporated by 5 trillion again within 10 trading days.
With the downside of the stock market in recent years and the breach of default in the bond market, a large number of funds and trust products have been difficult to keep the capital. Many fund managers have stated that the pressure is large, and the probability of sudden death and jumping from the building is much larger than the average level of society.
As for the so -called high -tech and new economic fields of risk capital, many people are familiar with private capital and government subsidies.Even a solo real estate field is precisely because of Mu Xiu's forest and the wind must be urged. Why is the value of only real estate not falling?In fact, if real estate plunge, this will not only create tens of millions of financial refugees, but the Chinese economy will also follow the bones.
Another set of Andrdquo; from investment and wealth management traps. People who have accumulated some wealth always hope that wealth can maintain value and appreciate., Hangzhou's Huanglong Stadium and Jianggan Sports Center became the refugee camp of P2P investors. Thousands of investment victims gathered here to wait for the results without results.
In addition, there are a variety of online financial projects and digital currency projects. There are many traps designed for rich people. Many people accidentally become Andrdquo;Large, the more greedy capital, the more surplus capital in the local market, and the more financial scams.
The rise of rent, consumption downgrade, and Andrdquo; in fact, the emergence of "financial refugees andrdquo; in fact is a source of three tributaries.Pain: The poor are gradually marginalized in the progress of the mainstream economy. The rich people are facing the huge uncertainty of asset consumption, and the sandwich layer is sandwiched in the middle and retreat. The three tributaries are intertwined with each other., So that cause a lot of social problems.
The deterioration of the gap between the rich and the poor is a difficult thing.The best idea is still a way to improve Pareto, that is, to maximize the opportunity to increase the economic growth of low -income groups, while avoiding excessive incidence of wealth and poverty.As did it in the mid -1990s, everyone's income was improved, but the poor income increased faster.Now, the Chinese economy itself is experiencing the pain of the decline in potential growth rate. It is more difficult to get closer to the gap between the rich and the poor by relying on the rapid and slow difference in income.
The following points are urgent.Small and medium -sized enterprises with intensive labor need to reduce taxes, and the tax system itself needs to shift from trades to direct tax as soon as possible to increase economic vitality at the level of micro -enterprise.It is also necessary to improve the social security network such as reinforcement and education, and re -pick up the concept of service -oriented government transformation, and ensure that groups with decline in income can be softened.Policy expectations for stable economy, especially the financial sector, are also particularly important. The policy of changing or one -size -fits -all -cut policies will inevitably bring capital and large exit. Capital without long -term expected capital will inevitably be blind.
How to spend in 2018 may directly determine China's next 20 years, which can be described as the key and long -term node.
