Focus: Will the Sino -US restart trade consultation have no effect?

On April 3, 2018, Shanghai, China, a US commodity area in a supermarket.Reuters/ALY Song.

Reuters, Beijing, August 23-Sino-US trade friction, which has been stalemate for more than two months, welcomes signs of mildness this week. Although the parties are not looking forward to the results of the ongoing Sino-US consultation, they are still the long-standing trading friction belt.Come a trace of warming signal.

Many Chinese officials who understand the situation point to Reuters that there are still uncertainty in the future, but there are conversations and contacts between the two parties, and it is progress.Short board.

And "This should be the beginning, indicating that the two sides still seek to talk. Anandrdquo; an unnamed government person said that Andrdquo," Of course, "Of course," of course, "of course, he hopes that there will be higher -level consultations in the future.It is the sincerity of the other party.

The person also said that in the recent discussions on the inter -tech and central high -level meetings on the Sino -US trade situation, in addition to discussing related plans and countermeasures, it also analyzedThrough its own reform, it fundamentally enhances and enhances and "anti -pressure resistance andrdquo;.

According to an authoritative person close to the Ministry of Commerce, and And "is the rhythm of talking while talking, although the official levels of this negotiations are not high, they still represent the governments of the two countries.It shows that the attitude of the two parties is changing, and does not want the trade war to continue to be upgraded. Try to solve the differences through negotiations. Anandrdquo;

Wang Shouwen, the deputy representative of the Ministry of Commerce and deputy representative of the International Trade Negotiations, went to the United States. On Wednesday and Thursday and the US Ministry of Finance Deputy Minister of Finance Malpas, the US delegation conducted ministerial consultation. Compared with the previous negotiating lineupThe level of consultation is slightly lower, but it is a re -negotiation after two months, and is regarded as a tentative exchanges and sincerity of the two parties.

In addition, there is a person close to the government to Reuters that China needs to improve the concerns of other countries through institutional improvements. At the same time, the continuous trade dispute also reflects the deeper issues of the Chinese economy itself.In the past, the inconspicuous issues have gradually appeared in trade frictions, and they have received official attention and attention.

The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated on Wednesday that "Since China and the United States have begun to negotiate, we hope that negotiations can obtain a good result of a good result of the interests of both parties and consumers.

Judging from the past attitude of US officials, there are differences between the Trump administration's important members of the Trump administration for negotiation with China or pressure on China.Treasury Minister Nuchin supports the previous approach, while the US trade representative Leitzizer and the director of the National Trade Commission Peter Navarro belong to the latter camp.

When a reporter asked Trump's expectations for the talks on Wednesday, the White House spokesman Sanders replied: And "these talks will continue. I have nothing to announce this ... Of course, we want to reach a better to the United States.The trade agreement. Anandrdquo; Trump himself said in an interview with Reuters on Monday that it is expected that this week's trade consultation will not make much progress.

Sino -US trade friction has evolved into a long -term war. However, Wu Qing, chief economist of Oriental Asset Management Co., Ltd., pointed out that Andrdquo;One, the longer the delay time, the more disadvantaged it is to China.

And "The global economy has entered a period of recession, against globalization, but this is just a process. After the recession period, it will return to the road of globalization. The key is that the faster this process has passed, the better the better to China Andrdquo;He said.

The United States plans to impose tariffs on $ 16 billion in Chinese goods on Thursday, and China has also announced that it will impose revenge tariffs on the same amount of US goods.A spokesman for the Chinese Ministry of Commerce stated on Thursday that the United States told the United States on taxation of US $ 16 billion in Chinese products that China resolutely opposed it and had to continue to make necessary attacks.

** Soy soybean causes the food price and land transfer mechanism to think **

In the past month, a cargo ship named "Pegasus bee andrdquo; and swipe the screen in Chinese social media.But after all, it is still one step later. Buyers need to pay high extra costs. Although the trade war has limited impact on Chinese agriculture, this rushing soybean boat has triggered the thinking behind Chinese agricultural products.

China used to be the most important soybean production and exporter in the world, and the import volume in the past two decades has risen straight, and the area of soybean planting has shrunk. Wan Yan, chief economist of China Gold Group, pointed out that the labor cost of Chinese units is still lower than the United States, soThe main reason for the high labor cost is caused by the production method. The per capita farming area is small, and large -scale mechanized production is difficult to carry out, and artificial investment is too high.

And "In recent years, the central government has paid great attention to promoting and supporting large -scale production of grain, but in order to solve the problem, it may still require greater force in the future, deepen the reform of the rural property rights system, and innovate the land circulation system."

Li Guoxiang, director of the Rural Development Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, further analyzed that Chinese soybeans rely on imports of existing international division of labor, as well as factors that affect the enthusiasm of the planting of bean farmers due to low profits.The scale of domestic demand has increased, but the cultivated land is insufficient and the planting structure is not reasonable. While a large amount of soybeans need to be imported, rice, corn, wheat, etc. are staged excess, high inventory level, and production exceeds demand.

An official of a Jilin Provincial Department of Agriculture admits that the decline in the enthusiasm of farmers breeding soybean is mainly the lack of competitiveness of soybeans. Although it has increased the support of soybean production from the government level, through increasing soybean producer subsidies, piloting subsidies for cultivated land rotation, etc.Increasing farmers' cultivation enthusiasm, Andrdquo;

Wanzhang also analyzed that unlike industrial products, the price of the market is basically confirmed by the market supply and demand, the market demand of agricultural products is relatively rigid, and its supply cycle is relatively long, and the price of agricultural products is easily affected by the supply end.China's grain price management system has undergone multiple rounds of reforms, but the formation of market price mechanisms, digestion of inventory, and re -balance of production and supply may take time, and the market -oriented reform of grain price still needs to continue to be deepened and improved.

Since May of this year, Heilongjiang, Jilin, Henan and other provinces and cities urgently expand the area of large bean planting in urgent context to alleviate the gap in domestic supply.Among them, the Henan Provincial Department of Agriculture clearly stated that "actively guide Andrdquo; farmers expand the soybean planting area of 500,000 acres.

Li Guoxiang also pointed out that by expanding planting to meet domestic needs, various risks that depend on imports can be reduced.As the outbreak of the Sino -US trade war, the import price of US soybeans will inevitably increase, and the import volume will decrease. In addition to the diversification of imports, how to protect their own interests, ensure the stability of the domestic market, how to balance the agricultural structure, whether the soybeans are soybeansRelying on many aspects such as international markets and other aspects, thinking.

The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Agriculture and the Ministry of Finance previously issued a policy of fiscal key agricultural benefits and agriculture in 2018. In terms of direct subsidies for farmers, including cultivated land protection subsidies, agricultural machinery purchase subsidies, producers subsidies, and cotton target price subsidies; at the same time, the agricultural structure will also be supportedAdjustment, the scale of the pilot scale of the centralized land rotation system for the central government will expand to 24 million mu.(End)