Liu Xingzhi: The Sino -US trade war may suspend fire

Liu Xingzhi

In late August, the deputy minister of the Ministry of Commerce Wang Shouwen led the delegation to the United States to conduct trade negotiations. This was the first time that the two sides tried to negotiate after the official start of the Sino -US trade war.

The timing of this round of negotiations should be carefully selected.From August 23, the United States will impose 25%tariffs on US $ 16 billion in goods imported from China, and China will counterattack.The United States ’s words will impose a 10%tariff on US $ 200 billion in Chinese goods. Hearing will also be held from August 20th to 23rd, and it may take effect after the public consultation of August 30.When the trigger of the second round of tariffs has not been deducted to the end, and the third round of tariff cannon is about to be carried out, a round of consultation is urgently. Although the negotiation specifications are reduced, it is still expected to reach a temporary ceasefire agreement.

China has always hoped to avoid the trade war.After the negotiations in the last round of June 15, although the stock market's foreign exchange market was under pressure, the Chinese government suffered from the high price of the United States, the intention was chaotic, and repeated reasons after the agreement was reached.EssenceHowever, in social opinion, the Lord and the discussion are getting stronger.During this period, the United States threatened to increase the code while accusing the negotiation of breakdown lies in the senior management of the Chinese side and intending to coerce the Chinese side to yield.

This time, China was invited to send members to restart negotiations. There is a good progress. Even if there is no progress, you can also touch the opponent's intention and hole cards, and again release the sincerity of the domestic international.

As far as the United States is concerned, the economic data performance in the second quarter undoubtedly increased its confidence in its trade war.Senior officials such as the White House Chief Economic Counselor Kudlo recently warned that China should not underestimate President Trump ’s“ strong determination andrdquo; and must take out the Andrdquo;However, it does not mean that the Trump administration is determined to upgrade the trade war. In fact, the United States also has negotiation needs.

The first is the election of the midterm elections.Recently, a number of polls in the United States showed that the House of Representatives appeared "Blue Inspur andrdquo; Trends, and the voting of Democratic Party votes has increased enthusiastically. Candidates for two parties show and" Facebook andrdquo; features, the style of Republican candidates has become more and more "specialTrump's Andrdquo; and Democratic candidates are mostly Andrdquo; political confrontation and polarization intensify, and the opposition forces are accelerated.

At this time, if it can force China to make a certain concession and announce the victory of the trade war against China, it will strongly increase the election situation Andmdash; Andmdash; this is the current first concern of the US government.The White House spokesman said on August 16: The United States is open to the discussion of structural issues, and it is expected that China will propose and propose Andrdquo;"

The second is that the trading war on all sides is currently limited.Although the trade war launched by the United States is strong and appalling, except for severe disturbing the global economy, it has not achieved the expected results.At the end of July alone, a joint statement with the European Union was temporarily suspended, and then France, Spain and other countries successively raised objections. The follow -up negotiations were far away. The joint statement was tantamount to drawing cakes at this stage.

In addition, the US -Canada -in -law Free Trade has not made substantial progress, and the negotiations in the early August of the United States and Japan were low -key and unsuccessful.It is unknown whether the US government has a long -term regret.However, the coercion of all parties is difficult to achieve in the short term, and China continues to "hard carry Andrdquo; undoubtedly encourages other countries to take a wait -and -see attitude, or use the" dragging tips Andrdquo;

Therefore, for the United States, it is a good strategy for the United States, at least soften the Chinese attitude, and then pick one or two soft persimmons from several other houses.On the one hand, you can achieve actual victory as soon as possible, on the other hand, you can take weak enemies and break each other. Eventually, after a strategic roundabout to form a united front against China.

In addition, Trump comes from me as a master of trading, hoping to use its unique and "trading art andrdquo; to talk about better transactions for the United States.I am afraid it is not what the president is happy.

Third, the dissatisfaction of the business community needs to soothe.Unlike government hawks officials, Washington elites, and farmers in the central and western parts, the dissatisfaction of the business community is increasing.At the second round of hearing of US $ 16 billion in trade tariffs, the business community clearly expressed objections.The second -largest private company owner of the United States, which has a huge influence on US politics, recently opposed the trade war high -profile against the trade war and warned the trade war to wipe out the major benefits of previous large -scale tax cuts.

Immediately, the Trump administration proposed to reduce taxes of US $ 100 billion in taxes. It can be seen that the upgrading of the trade war will withstand huge pressure on the business community, and the influence of the rich in the United States on politics cannot be underestimated.

Fourth, geopolitical changes increase the demand for the United States to China.Unlike Trump's initial optimism expectations, the nuclear issue has progressed slowly. The Iranian nuclear issue has fallen into an impasse. The Iranian government refuses to negotiate and threatens the blockade of the Holmus Strait.Turkey sanctioned currency diving under the United States, but the Erdogan government vowed to fight against the US economic war and threatened to put aside the United States and find new allies.

In the above -mentioned chess game, although the United States has an advantage and has an absolute initiative, it is temporarily unable to submit to all countries. Once it is further provoked, it may be difficult to ride a tiger.To solve these difficult problems, China also requires some cooperation in China. At least appropriate restraint, no strong support for relevant countries.

Fifth, although the US economy is strong, there are still many hidden concerns.The impact of the trade war on the US economy has not yet appeared, but the periodic factors of the economy itself cannot be ignored.The annual economic growth cycle of the United States is about to refresh the longest history, and the early warning of mid -term risks has continued to increase.

Some crisis early warning indicators, such as the poor yields of two -year and 10 -year Treasury bonds, also frequently alert.Science and technology stocks that support the US stock market have emerged in the near future.

With the return of hundreds of billions of dollars in risk aversion funds, the US dollar continues to strengthen, and the bubble of the property market in the stock market bond market will intensify, but the manufacturing industry may not benefit.Employment rates have higher inflation caused by the trade war, and they will also offset some benefits.

Trump has given himself a strong performance of the US economy. It has been criticized by many circles. Once the economy fluctuates, it will not be able to escape the blame. At that time, it will not be the mid -term election that will be lost, but the next president's term.Therefore, the U.S. government also needs to reduce the risks of large economic waves and continue to extend the longest positive growth cycle in history.

It can be seen that although the United States has the initiative of the trade war, it also has considerable transaction demand.If the Chinese side is satisfied, it can naturally take the opportunity to transfer to proclaim victory.Even if the bid is average, the United States does not rule out that referring to the European and American joint statement model, temporarily cease the fire, and then consider whether the impact of the ceasefire on the midterm election election is positive or negative, and then decide whether the next step is to talk or talk.

The Chinese side is limited to the domestic situation, but it provides several types of bids: one is to continue to strengthen the protection of intellectual property rights, and the other is to continue to expand market access. Both of them are the established strategies of domestic reform.big.The third is to maintain the overall exchange rate and not depreciate sharply. This is also more concerned about the Trump administration and in line with Chinese interests.

The fourth is to increase the purchase of natural gas and agricultural products in the United States, and it has increased appropriately in the last round of negotiations.As for the 2025 plan, because the issue has been excessively political, I am afraid it will be avoided and it is difficult to make concessions.

In view of the current situation, the gap between the final agreement between the two parties is large, but the temporary ceasefire is beneficial to China, and it may not be unacceptable to the United States.If Wang Shouwen's negotiations in the United States can make positive progress, it is expected that there will be higher -level negotiations in early September to declare a temporary ceasefire agreement.

The author is a legal adviser to the Communication Company of Jilin Province, China