Social Comment: Where will Türkiye go under the crisis?

And "they have the US dollar, we have Allah! Andrdquo; This is the roar from Turkish President Erdogan a week ago to Washington.

Since the U.S. Treasury Department announced on August 1 that it has been imprisoned by Turkey because of the US pastor Brunson and adopted sanctions against the Minister of the Internal Affairs and the Minister of Justice, the exchange rate of the Turkish liraga against the US dollar has fallen by more than a quarter.Although in recent days, Turkey has successfully increased the exchange rate of Licha to the US dollar through various means, but it still cannot stop the huge impact of the exchange rate crisis brought to Turkey.

Will bilateral sanctions and exchange rate crisis caused by deterioration of relations between the United States and Turkey cause other domestic and foreign chain reactions?

On August 15th, Turkey issued a law signed by President Erdogan on a significant increase in tariffs on imported products in the United States, increasing the passenger car tariffs imported from the United States by 120%, an alcoholic beverage tariff of 140%, tobacco increased, and the tobacco was increased.60%.The tariffs on products such as cosmetics, rice and coal have also improved.Earlier, Erdogan just announced to resist American electronics.

As the largest economy in the Middle East, Turkey has experienced a exchange rate crisis in the past few days.One day on August 10, lira fell 17%.It wasn't until the Turkish central bank that it announced that it provided liquidity to all banks and took all necessary measures to maintain financial stability, and the lira exchange rate stopped on the 14th and 15th.

At the same time as Turkish lira is constantly depreciating, the main commercial groups in Turkey have called on the government to tighten monetary policy, launch fiscal tightening measures, and quickly resolve disputes with the United States, but Erdogan is still strong.

Erdogan said that the plunge in the Lichardon was a "political conspiracy Andrdquo; the political conspiracy Andrdquo; the purpose was to allow Turkey to surrender in various fields from finance to politics. He said that Turkey will launch a counterattack to find And" new markets and "new markets and"Allies Andrdquo;.

Andrdquo in Erdogan's mouth seemed to be difficult to find. As one of Turkey's most important partners, the European Union seemed to be in a state of watch on the exchange rate crisis.

After a large diving due to the US sanctions, senior EU officials told the media that the EU hoped to see a stable Turkey in financial order.However, as a competent institution of the euro one of the world's main currencies, the European Central Bank, located in the Frankfurt, Germany, has not yet shot substantial help to Turkey.

Türkiye has not had a good relationship with its European partners in the past two years.In the previous election, Erdogan went to Europe to try to give a public speech in Germany, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom and other countries to win the votes of local Turkish immigrants and help him be elected president smoothly.

Although Erdogan finally made his wish and climbed the President's Great President after the Turkish Constitution restructured, and continued to grasp real power, the acts of domestic political activities on other countries' territories made European leaders very dissatisfied.Especially German Chancellor Merkel has repeatedly criticized this behavior.In addition, the European Union's large cleaning of Turkey's domestic circles, including troops, government agencies, universities, and other institutions after Erdogan's attempted coup.

The main reason why the European Union did not tear up with Turkey was that it was hoped that Turkey could comply with the refugee agreement signed between the European Union and Turkey on March 18, 2016.According to this agreement, Turkey will strictly manage its coast and land border to prevent refugees from Syria and other Middle East poured into Europe via Turkey to ease the pressure on refugee problems in EU countries.

In fact, according to the agreement, the European Union did not fulfill its promise and gives Turkish citizens' visa -free to enter the EU Schengen Zone.It can be said that the European Union picked up the big cheap during the execution of this agreement.Turkey has also threatened the European Union several times. If it cannot perform the contract, it will tear the agreement.But in view of Turkey, he still has fantasies about joining the European Union, Erdogan is still performing an agreement.Millions of refugees have been accommodated in Turkey.On this issue, the European Union is satisfied with Turkey.

When the European Union chose things, Qatar stood out.On August 15, after a few hours of talks between Turkish and Qatar's heads of state, Qatar would invest in Turkey 15 billion US dollars.This is undoubtedly sending charcoal in Turkey in the exchange rate crisis, which is conducive to stabilizing Turkey's financial order.

Whether the exchange rate crisis of Turkish lira will have a chain reaction? From two dimensions.

Many areas of Turkey will be impacted by the exchange rate crisis.The first time was Erdogan's son -in -law Albarak.On July 12, 2018, after Erdogan swore to take office as the President of Turkey, he immediately appointed his son -in -law Albairak as the Financial Minister.This move has been regarded by many people who oppose Erdogan as Andrdo.Degree.

Most of the Turkish Minister of Finance were economists, and they would take care of Erdogan's pressure at some critical moments and respect the laws of the market.This has also made Türkiye an important guarantee for economic development over the past ten years.Facing the crisis this time, Albarak will obey the various instructions of Laozhang people.If the response measures have not been achieved, then he is likely to become Andrdquo;. Erdogan will lose some people's support for this.

Another big impact is likely to be the differentiation of the political views of Turkish people.After the exchange rate crisis occurs, there are many pro -American elite classes in Turkey, calling on Erdogan to stop confrontation with the United States, let go of the body, and negotiate with the United States to solve the exchange rate problem in a more peaceful way.But Erdogan obviously did not listen to these suggestions.The current nationalist mood in Türkiye is high.Under Erdogan's breathing, many people have exchanged the US dollars in their hands to lira, which also caused liti exchange rates to stop falling back to a certain extent.But this powerful, rendering conflict is not accepted by everyone.

It can be seen from the previous voting results of the presidential election that Erdogan won the election with a 52.6%vote rate, and a considerable part of the people did not vote for him.If the Lichar's exchange rate crisis cannot end as soon as possible, once other domestic industries in Turkey are affected, Erdogan's tough route will inevitably cause more people to question.

Turkey's domestic "Ting Erdogan Andrdquo; and and Andrdquo," Suspecting Erdogan Andrdquo; there will be significant differentiation and may tear Turkish society.

At the economy level, since Turkey has not yet joined the European Union, it is only a connected country of the European Union, and has not joined the Schengen area and the euro area. Therefore, its exchange rate crisis has little impact on the EU and euro zone countries.On the contrary, other emerging market countries, such as Indonesia, Argentina, Brazil, Mexico and other countries, their currencies may have a chain response due to the plunge of the lira. At present, currencies in many countries have become turbulent.Although the popularity is not large now, the exchange rate fluctuations caused by it are not strenuous, but it is still difficult to judge the end of the end of the lira crisis, and the exchange rate risk of other countries will continue to exist for a period of time.

At the military level, since the United States and Turkey are both NATO allies, the relationship between the relationship between the two sides may affect the unity within NATO.Although Trump has previously claimed that European allies should bear the responsibility of protecting Europe by themselves, instead of expecting the United States to spend a lot of money to protect them, the United States has still undertake a large number of defense work in Europe and has a wide range of military bases in Europe.

Turkey had previously caused dissatisfaction with the United States due to the bidding of the missile defense system.

At the beginning, Turkey was willing to China ’s missile defense system during the tender process, and then re-bidded the Russian air defense system S-400, which violated the United States’ s sanctions on Russia.Recently, Russia has become increasingly increasingly in Turkey, which has also attracted the attention of the United States and the European Union.

This time, Turkey and the United States may have an impact on NATO's future action, especially in the Middle East.

At the diplomatic level, the diplomatic structure of Turkey and its adjacent areas may occurThe country's countries have little impact.On the contrary, other emerging market countries, such as Indonesia, Argentina, Brazil, Mexico and other countries, their currencies may have a chain response due to the plunge of the lira. At present, currencies in many countries have become turbulent.Although the popularity is not large now, the exchange rate fluctuations caused by it are not strenuous, but it is still difficult to judge the end of the end of the lira crisis, and the exchange rate risk of other countries will continue to exist for a period of time.

At the military level, since the United States and Turkey are both NATO allies, the relationship between the relationship between the two sides may affect the unity within NATO.Although Trump has previously claimed that European allies should bear the responsibility of protecting Europe by themselves, instead of expecting the United States to spend a lot of money to protect them, the United States has still undertake a large number of defense work in Europe and has a wide range of military bases in Europe.

Turkey had previously caused dissatisfaction with the United States due to the bidding of the missile defense system.

At the beginning, Turkey was willing to China ’s missile defense system during the tender process, and then re-bidded the Russian air defense system S-400, which violated the United States’ s sanctions on Russia.Recently, Russia has become increasingly increasingly in Turkey, which has also attracted the attention of the United States and the European Union.

This time, Turkey and the United States may have an impact on NATO's future action, especially in the Middle East.

At the diplomatic level, the diplomatic pattern of Turkey and its adjacent areas may change.For a long time, Turkey has been tense with some leading countries, especially the Middle East, especially the Middle East.At the same time, it has frequently shown it for the European Union and other countries.Although Erdogan is very means, he has no choice but to avoid the good and evil of various countries.However, in the face of the crisis, Qatar's generosity and the continuous approach of Russia, in sharp contrast to the continuous wait -and -see of the EU, the help or sanctions of other regions will be recorded one by one by Turkey.Traditional regional diplomatic structures may be changed.After the crisis, Türkiye may go closer to some countries.

On August 19, Erdogan said at the annual party conference of the Righteousness and Development Party of the capital Ankara that some people tried to threaten Turkey through economic means such as sanctions, exchange rates, interest rates, and inflation.Partner, but in fact Turkey surrender as an "strategic target Andrdquo; and the chain response caused by the Turkish lira crisis is still continuing, and subsequent development is worthy of continuous attention in the academic community.

Author: Wang Shichen Andnbsp; Andnbsp; Source: Surging News Network