Kawashima Takuya: The revelation of the Japanese experience on the Sino -US trade war

Trial Time

Recently, I often heard Chinese scholars and media people, and proposed whether the experience of Japanese -US trade friction in the 1980s can give some revelations of China.China and Japan do have many same experience, which is worthy of in -depth discussion.However, the author believes that when thinking about this issue, it is important to sort out the following arguments.

Although the experience of trade issues between Japan and the United States is very similar, it is worth noting that China and Japan have different positions against the United States.In the 1970s, after the oil crisis and currency (US dollar) crisis and the United States defeated in the Vietnam war, the prestige of the United States began to shake. In the 1980s, the Reagan government wanted to work hard to launch the "powerful American Andrdquo;

At that time, Japan was the largest trading deficit manufacturer in the United States, and although Japan was constantly implementing trade liberalization, from the perspective of the United States, not only tariffs, Japanese domestic legal system and business habits were regarded as protectiveism.Make a modification of tough requirements such as domestic law.

In this regard, while the Japanese Liberal Democratic Party government was negotiated by the United States, while working hard to coordinate in China.For example, a free trade with fruit is achieved, but rice is protected.In addition, in terms of security policy, Zhong Zeng Kanghong's government has a clear attitude towards the United States for concessions to the United States. By establishing an intimate personal relationship of Andrdquo; YASU (Zhong Zeng Gen), which is known as "Ron (Reagan)), to ease the intimate personal relationship of Andrdquo;Tension in economic and trade.

Of course, through the (1985) Plaza Agreement, Japan had to accept the devaluation of the yen, not only after the Japanese bubble economy, but now that Japan has been in a long state of economic downturn.However, Japan has realized the economic structure of stability growth and internal demand.

If China draws on Japan's experience, it will need to break through two conditions.

First, the Central Government of China has conceded the United States in security and established intimate relationship between the leaders. Whether China can now come up with a certain Andrdquo; in exchange for the intimate relationship between the two governments, there are still questions. Second, if you specially, if you specializeThe Trump administration put forward various requirements for China to create employment or resolving trade deficits. Can China take effective measures such as Japan's creation of automotive production factories in the United States to respond?

As early as the 1970s to the 1980s, Japan implemented exchange rate liberalization and transformed into a free trade orbit required by the United States.It may be seen in the eyes of China that Japan was abused through the square agreement.Therefore, China refuses the liberalization of RMB.However, as a result, the balance of RMB has become a big problem in the balance of domestic and foreign. Once China and the United States enter the trade war, it is necessary to accelerate domestic investment. The most scary is the outflow of the RMB.

In this way, accelerating investment in the United States has become a big taboo, because if the domestic funds are agreed, domestic funds will be out of place.Sino -Japanese experience is very similar.However, it is very different from the content and conditions in the United States.Second, the Japanese and American relations in the 1980s are very different from Sino -US relations.It is true that Japan was also threatened to the United States in the 1980s.In the book "Japan's First: Enlightenment of the United States", Fu Gaoyi raised an alarm to the American society. He explained that Japan was economically threatened by economically, but he would not subvert world order and engage in hegemonism.Unlike, in the current US crisis awareness of China, there is a crisis of hegemony alternation and the crisis of changes in international order.

Therefore, from the perspective of the United States, the challenges are also completely different.In the 1980s, Japan's military power was not strong, and under the control of the United States, it was still the same.And China is different.China is positioned as challengers in larger categories such as economy, politics, security, and order.Therefore, the United States may be more focused on China ’s policy than in the past, and China should have a full understanding of this aspect.

The author is a professor at the University of Tokyo, Japan