Economic Daily: When will the US -China trade war turn off?

Economic Daily News

Since the US President Trump signed a tariff of 25%of the exports to mainland China to the United States, the US -China trade war can be said to be officially launched.Although from this week, the representatives of the United States and China restarted the negotiations. A series of tariff wars that you came and me, it is expected to show off the fire. However, it is generally expected that after a while, the two parties are not easy to turn off.In the middle, Taiwanese businessmen still need to be prepared for a long time.

In June, July, and August, the U.S. Trade Representative General Administration imposed tariffs on mainland China exported goods.EssenceUnder the stimulus of the mainland government's steps on retaliation, the Trump administration decided to adopt a larger taxation operation, which will impose about 6,000 goods for the mainland's export of US $ 200 billion in the United States, with a 10%tariff of 10%.These projects have been put forward, and they are undergoing further investigations and inquiries about the opinions of relevant manufacturers. It is expected that there will be results in early September.These projects include a wide range of scope. If it is truly executed, it will have significant harm to the exports of the mainland.Since the total exports of the mainland last year were only 130 billion US dollars, the mainland could no longer submit the same amount of revenge, so the reaction of the mainland turned low -key, only claiming that it would seek solution from the World Trade Organization (WTO).

Mainland China and the United States are the two largest trading partners in Taiwan. Therefore, when severe trade frictions occur between the two, they will naturally have a great impact on Taiwan.It will be more serious and deserve special attention.

Since the late 1980s, Taiwan's open enterprises have invested in the mainland. Many Taiwanese businessmen have regarded mainland factories as their main production bases, that is, and "Taiwan picks up orders, the mainland produces Andrdquo; at the same time, the original materials and components needed for production in mainland China in mainland ChinaIt was imported from the parent company of Taiwanese businessmen. The formation of the mainland factory was Andrdquo; that is, the raw materials came from Taiwan, and then the products were sold abroad. Among them, the United States is the most important final market.The two sides of the strait therefore showed an industrial chain relationship of "vertical division of labor andrdquo; that is to say that in Taiwan to produce raw materials and components, after being assembled in the mainland, it is sold to the United States and other countries.

When the United States and mainland China increase the taxation, the trade between the two parties will inevitably be hindered, and the products that Taiwanese businessmen are transferred to the United States through the mainland will be directly affected.According to statistics from the Ministry of Economic Affairs, about 40%of Taiwan's export products are sold to the mainland, nearly 70%of them are raw materials and components, and then processed and exported to the United States or other countries.This part of products that indirectly exported to the United States will be the worst industry in the US -China trade war. Among them, steel, plasticization and electronics may not be able to escape.

In addition, there is also a possibility that some products will be transferred to Taiwan. For example, products imported from the United States from the United States will be transferred from the United States to Taiwan;However, we believe that the effect of this transfer order should not be great, because the products exported to the mainland in the United States are very different from that of Taiwan's exporting mainland products; similarAfter these projects are taxed, they may be turned to other countries to buy, and there should be few parts of the transfer to Taiwan.

In addition, the impact on Taiwanese businessmen may be that these products are taxed only a short -term phenomenon or long -term taxation war. If it is a short -term phenomenon, maybe mainland Taiwanese businessmen can temporarily endure it. After the two parties re -negotiate, they will re -negotiate.The tax fall is fine.However, if the two parties increase taxes for a long time, then mainland Taiwanese businessmen may consider transferring investment locations, move to Southeast Asian countries without tax increases, or return to Taiwan again.

Economic theory tells us that free trade agreements or anti -free trade (tariffs) will cause manufacturers to move in the investment layout in the long run.Now Taiwanese businessmen are also facing the same problem. How should we respond?However, a problem to be solved first is whether the US -China trade war will be a short battle or a long -term long -term war?Taiwanese businessmen may be determined first before deciding how to go next.The problem is that Trump's behavior is elusive. When will the US -China trade war be solved, it is difficult to predict. What should Taiwanese businessmen go?The government should have corresponding counseling measures.