Turkish currency lira degrades, the global financial market is shocking, and then the two international credit evaluation agencies of Sandandp and Moodys to reduce the Turkish debt letter rating.To deepen the market's concerns about the financial crisis of the country. If the market is concerned about the unknown of the Tripan storm, it may spread to the entire emerging market and repeat the Asian financial crisis in 1997. Faced with the crisis, mainland China should take the lead in the role of the volatile character., To support the emerging market, the East Asian economy is a mountain.
In the Sino -US trade war, the Trump administration not only provoked mainland China, but also attacked.Turkey is because the United States announced that it has doubled tariffs on steel and aluminum products in the country, and the exchange rate will be degraded by nearly 30 %.
Licha has become a vulnerable currency in recent years, and it has to withstand this again, which is even more weak. At the same time, it has also triggered the awareness of international gold owners to emerging markets, leading to blood loss of funds in these markets.International funds are mostly flowing to the United States, and the markets of even Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Lu are also harmed.
The substantial impact of this wave of Turkish lira storms will be further observed.However, at the beginning of the storm, some experts and scholars believe that if the storm spreads outward, it may repeat the Asian financial crisis that year; the risks cannot be ignored.
The Asian financial crisis means that in the second half of 1997, the US financial speculators sniped the Thai baht and detonated; then, the fire of the exchange rate of the Thai baht quickly extended to the various economies of East Asia (Southeast Asia, Northeast Asia).The local currency generally depreciated accordingly, causing economic depression.This fierce situation was eased until the second half of 1999.In this regard, the international financial circle has survived so far.
When it comes to the Asian financial crisis, it is necessary to mention that the response method of mainland China was unique at that time, and at the same time, it played an effect on turning the tide.It was mainly because the mainland government stood up for the RMB exchange rate, and always insisted on not depreciating, becoming an AND "different number of Andrdquo; therefore reduced the pressure of the currency depreciation of the East Asian economies;East Asian economic losses are even worse.
This is the first time that the mainland shows its ability to support the international economy and has been recognized by the international community.Among them, Southeast Asian countries are particularly impressed. Therefore, after the financial crisis was lifted, the mainland and Southeast Asian Asia quickly formed economic integration consensus, and at the same time launched discussions to promote implementation.This is the reason for today's mainland and ASEAN Free Trade Agreement (ASEAN 10 plus 1).
Looking at the international economic situation since the beginning of this year, it can be said that it was more doubtful than the Asian financial crisis at the time.The US President Trump's arbitrary trade war and protectionism. The main sword refers to mainland China and involves many other political contradictions with the United States or enjoying more trade surplus to the United States.The financial market is also distorted.The Turkish liid storms that have happened a few days ago are just the corner of the iceberg, and other potential risks are incredible. Among them, whether the economy and finance of mainland China can stabilize the foot is the world's focus.
But it is worth noting that the current economic strength of the mainland is no longer Wu Xia Amon.When the Asian financial crisis was raging in the past, the mainland's economic scale could not be ranked among the top five in the world, and it has now expanded to the second in the world, and pursued the United States before.Therefore, the current mainland has a greater confidence in responding to the global economic and trade and financial bureau, and it is also more conditional to play a stable and bottom -up role for the international economic system.
From this perspective, the RMB exchange rate is really unnecessary to depreciate.Since the second quarter of this year, the renminbi has continued to depreciate, and now it has been degraded by about 9%, but it is unexpected at home and abroad.Although experts and scholars generally believe that the main cause of the RMB's waves is the result of the deliberate derogation of the People's Bank of China. The purpose is to "pursue Andrdquo; the mainland export industry is lost by Trump's sanctions;It is necessary and capable of taking international responsibility in the mainland; if you can use policy adjustment methods as soon as possible to stabilize the RMB exchange rate, and even let it wait for the opportunity to recover moderately, it can reduce the risk of turbulence in the international financial market, which is especially helpfulIt can be said that it was the reappearance of the spirit of the renminbi during the Asian financial crisis.
In addition, the RCEP agreement led by the mainland behind the scenes should strive to sign and take effect this year to become the new pillar of the international economic system.The members of the agreement include 10 ASEAN countries, China, Japan, South Korea, India (Du), Australia, and New Year. Its main system is in East Asia.Once the mainland successfully promotes the formation of RCEP for forming, it can fight against trade protectionism together.
In short, RMB and RCEPAND "Double Randrdquo;, which is the two major virtues of the current international economic and trade and financial turbulence, the mainland can play a positive positive influence, Beijing should use it to make it fully.When moved, the mainland is the East Asian economy, which is of great significance.
