Wangbao Society Review
The trade war launched by the United States is like a cloud cover, and the global economy has fallen into an irresistible risk and challenge, which has also had a certain impact on the Chinese economy. How long will this trade war fight?
Looking at it, what affects the trend of the United States is how big the countermeasures of other economies involved in the trade war, including Canada, Mexico, the European Union, China, Japan, Russia, etc., can force Trump and "Bend Andrdquo; (meaning changing policy propositions); second, the United States' own tolerance, whether it is as powerful as imagined; the third depends on whether the Politics of the Republican and Democratic Party has changed dramatically.
Of course, the key depends on Trump, who is born in a businessman, whether the situation will change with the situation, like the issue of immigration family reunion and the issue of nuclear issues.
The United States has provoked a trade war and has multiple considerations, which is a signal of its overall strategic adjustment.In recent years, the United States, who is used to the world's boss, found that his Andrdquo; status has been unprecedentedly challenged. Elite class, think tank scholars, and even some people have aimed for Andrdquo;Washington was determined to change the "9And#8231; 11 incident andrdquo; later, and the" anti -terrorism priority Andrdquo; and concentrated resources against China's strategic opponent.
Therefore, the trade war clearly reduces the deficit of foreign trade and seek the maximum commercial interests for the United States; the dark is to suppress the emerging power, especially China's peaceful rise.Trump popularized his team to study that the US economy is good and the people are available. It is the opportunity to start a trade war.However, the trade war is more than Andrdquo; and the injury is also hurt.
The situation in the past few months shows that the United States has not been profitable and suffered first.Economys that have been increasing in the United States have been attacked.Although the US economic data in the first half of the year was beautiful, the trade deficit increased after June.
The tariff war caused the price of steel and aluminum to rise, and the manufacturer was worried. Old -fashioned companies such as Harley voted with their feet, and Ford and GM will compete to reduce the profit forecast of 2018.As Andrdquo; and the many yachts of Trump supporters, it is also unfortunately a trade war launched by the president.
American soybeans exports to China sharply, and the government's temporary subsidies cannot solve the worries of farmers.It is ironic that on July 6, the United States burst into AND "The first shot of Andrdquo; and the first wave of countermeasures in China before the effectiveness, and the" Pegasus Peak Andrdquo;At the speed of Andrdquo;, but because of the anchor and the "break through Andrdquo; unsuccessful; more than a month later, the ship finally stopped in Dalian Port and became the first batch of American soybeans that entered China after the Sino -US trade dispute intensified.
The trade war also threatened some Americans' pockets and employment.According to US media reports, in a small town in Arkansas, the trade war and "like a dark cloud covering future Andrdquo; and a paper factory project invested by China Enterprise more than $ 1 billion in a shelter, or affecting 2,000 Americans employment.With the upgrading of the trade war, liquefied natural gas, etc. will be included in the counter -list, which will hit Trump's Andrdquo;
Similarly, the trade war bullets are chaotic, causing great disturbances to economies outside the United States, affecting imports and exports, stock exchange markets, and economic and people's livelihood.In the eyes of many experts, the trade war is a new method adopted by the United States. Between sanctions and war, it constitutes risk with other issues.
For example, due to factors such as the pastor incident, the United States pressure, and the tariffs, Turkey was shocked on Friday and the "lira crisis andrdquo; and the panic spread, which may bred a larger storm.Later, the WTO rules and order formed by the United States.
The US trade war may not be able to obtain it, winning the trade war as expected, especially in China, in the face of the second largest economy, even if you win, the probability is Andrdquo; except for the gamer's scars, the efforts are heavy, and the efforts are heavy.At the cost, the international financial turmoil has been in the world economy that has been not easy to recover for 10 years, and it is also remembered again. In the 1930s, the US war in the United States not only failed to get rid of itself, but the global trade shrank by 66%.Is Yin Jian.
Microsoft founder Bill and#8231; Gates pointed out in an interview recently that the global economy and "currently perform well Andrdquo; but may be affected by tariffs.Growth and employment.
A report from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that all countries will be harmed due to the trade war provoked by the United States. In the established situation, the US economy is particularly easy to hit.It is expected that the growth rate of global trade will slow down in the third quarter.If the relative tariff disputes of various countries continue to be upgraded, the global economic growth declines by 0.5%in 2020.
Trump's thoughts and thought of "Let the United States again great Andrdquo; but retreating the group, sacrificing sanctions, and fighting a trade war is not a strategy, nor can it stop economic globalization.Revival. The United States wants to change the current status of unfair trade, to follow the right path, strengthen international economic and trade cooperation, reform the World Trade Organization (WTO), and make a big trade cake together.
There is no winner in the trade war.Whether it will become an Andrdquo; and the pattern of world trade is profoundly reconstructed. China and the United States, one is the largest developing country and one is the largest developed country.The maximum trade war Andrdquo;, with emphasis on the "strategic re -positioning Andrdquo; and to solve the problem of unbalanced goods trade through equal negotiations, and take the global responsibility that consistent with its own development and volume.
As for Taiwan, it is inevitable to be affected.The Tsai Ing -wen government should accept the lesson of the front car, calmly and dynamically evaluate the impact of the trade war, and formulate a prudent response, and reduce the negative impact brought by the butterfly effect to Taiwan enterprises and the economy.
