After nearly two years, the renminbi fell below 6.9 again, and the RMB exchange rate was approaching And the psychological integer passage of "7ANDRDQUO; 7ANDRDQUO.It comes from tariffs and economy.

Although capital outflows did not appear on Andrdquo; in the Foreign Management Bureau, "the book Andrdquo;, the capital outflow occurred. Picture source: Visual China.

For the RMB, Beijing's attitude is warm. It is necessary to maintain the value of the RMB, ensure the attractiveness of RMB assets, but also want RMB to hedge external impact to support domestic exports.Therefore, the authorities continued to declare that Andrdquo; but the renminbi continued to depreciate.

Two years ago, the tide of capital outflows caused by the devaluation of the renminbi was a more concerned issue in Beijing.And "811 exchange reform andrdquo; After the renminbi fell sharply, the capital was immediately reflected. After the reform of the exchange in 2015, the bank's foreign exchange market deficit in 2016 was as high as US $ 337.7 billion (over 22 trillion yuan).P>

A large number of capital outflows have led to severe damage to the domestic economy, and the central bank has to increase currency investment in order to supplement the losing market liquidity.To some extent, some of the natural credit in 2016 and the first half of 2017 were to fill the capital gap caused by capital outflows.

Subsequently, after a certain regulatory method, the capital outflow of normal channels was contained, and the RMB exchange rate was also introduced to the "counter -cyclical regulatory factor Andrdquo; after the rise, the highest recovered Andrdquo;

However, no one thought that after Trump came to power, the United States' attitude towards China had a significant reversal. In addition to export tariff policies, there was also a direct intervention in China's real economy.At the same time, combined with the Fed's interest rate hike cycle, the RMB depreciated again.In April this year, the RMB exchange rate is still at the level of 6.3, and now it is at 6.9 level.In just half a year, the depreciation of the renminbi exceeded 9%.

Different from two years ago, from the data from the Foreign Management Bureau, the depreciation of the RMB did not cause capital outflow.This year's banking and sales data have continued to recording a surplus.This may also be one of the reasons why the authorities are not as alert to the depreciation of the renminbi as last time.

However, although capital outflow did not appear on Andrdquo;, the foreign management bureau and the "book Andrdquo;, but the outflow of capital occurred.

Different from two years ago, today's capital outflows did not take the passage on the account, and began to go to the dark channel.Hong Kong has become an intermediary of capital outflows.Due to the special policy of one country, one country, two systems in Hong Kong, there is no obstacle from the capital of Hong Kong to sea, so many capital chose to transfer to Hong Kong first and then go out to the sea.

In the first half of 2016, many capitals that were blocked by some factors and could not go out used false trade with Hong Kong, overseas mergers and acquisitions investment, and purchase overseas insurance to achieve capital escape.Because these expenditures can be used directly, they do not take the foreign management bureaus to sell the exchange channel and have no data to monitor.

After experiencing cleaning and rectification, these dark channels closed the door, but there is a perfect system in the world.Today, the new capital outflow method has opened Andmdash; andMDASH; overseas listing.

This year, in addition to the listing of listing in the United States, it is still favored, and it is also very popular to go public in Hong Kong.In the first quarter of this year, in just three months, I had 7 companies in the United States to go public in the United States.As of July this year, the number of listed companies in Hong Kong is as high as 35.

However, it is interesting that the Sande Institution, Green Haotai, Elite Education, Bilibili, and iQiyi announced the break on the first day of listing in the United States;Fu Tianxia, Ping An Good Doctor and other companies have also announced their breaks on the first day of listing in Hong Kong.

Such a high break rate is by no means accidental phenomenon. What is hidden behind this?

From the perspective of listed enterprises, the listing of enterprises is for financing. As for who to undertake their listing business and the stock price trend after listing, it is secondary.

For the capital side, capital can be achieved after listing.Because no matter how the stock price falls and how to break, the probability of falling to the cost price before the size of the size is very small.How much returns can bring them after listing may be the secondary goal.

This new type of capital outflow may be that the regulatory layer has not been noticed, or maybe even a new way of seeing it.Because this method of capital to go to sea is within the scope of legal permission, and it also meets the current policy regulation needs.It's just that the shareholders will be cut again.

No matter what, the crisis two years ago was continuing.Two years ago, even if the market stopped the market, it seemed to be alert.

Since last year, the central bank has always adhered to a stable and neutral macro -control policy.This kind of "stable neutral andrdquo; show a tightening signal, the central bank also knows that the water has been put in the past. Even at the beginning of this year, the market's expectations for the tightening monetary policy have not been broken. However, in mid -this year, the central bankRemaining water again. Although it is claimed to maintain "stable and neutral andrdquo; regulation, the market expects has undergone significantly changes.Is there insufficient market liquidity, except for deleveraging, there is no capital outflow?

The outflow of capital is not only money, but also market confidence.It is not important where the RMB exchange rate falls, but the reduction of market confidence caused by the need to be vigilant.Confidence itself will fluctuate, but once it exceeds a certain range, it will enter another fluctuation range. At that time, if you want to recover, you will need to pay more.The central bank moves Andhellip; Andhellip;