Zheng Weibin: Calked like the Soviet Union to deal with China?

At present, many people believe that the Sino -US trade war has surpassed the economic competition, rising to institutional disputes, and even a civilized dispute.In this way, it means that China and the United States will inevitably fall into a long -term ideological dispute, and it is naturally like the Cold War, and it is bound to fall until one party fails to surrender.In addition, the failed side will only fall into the situation of division and collapse, just as the Soviet Union at the end of the last century.

Does the United States really do this at present, will it be a crackdown on Soviet -like, or just deal with Japan and China in the 1980s and 1990s?

Whether it is a Soviet -style blow or a Japanese -style blow, it may be difficult to make accurate judgments now.Therefore, we might as well look at it from another perspective. If China collapses like a Soviet Union, whether the current international order can be afforded, especially in Asia, can Asian allies in the United States accept the result of China because of the crash by the United States.If China collapses like a Soviet Union, Asia will inevitably have safe and economic uncertainty, and there is a possibility of being in turbulence.

Can the current international order accept the collapse of China?In other words, what will happen in this world if Chinese factors are erased from the current international order?

The basic consensus of the current international order is that the global order after World War II was established through a series of international institutions, and because of the leadership of super powers such as the United States, many differences, problems, and conflicts can be managed.And, because this international order is open and elastic, any country, whether it is democratic or autocracy, or even dictatorship, can benefit from participating in the division of labor in this order.

China's reform and opening up since 1978 is such a process of integration.

The result of this openness is that the global industries are increasingly refined, the interests of various countries are closely related, and a huge network structure is formed.The international order based on this structure is easy to join and it is difficult to overthrow.In other words, even if it is a dictatorship, if you are willing to join it, you can contribute something to the global trading system, but even if it is powerful, it is difficult to overthrow this international order.

Since China chose to join this international order in 1978, after 40 years of development, it has become the three major economies in the world with the United States and the European Union.In this order, China is not optional.In other words, even if China is defeated like the Soviet Union, at least the United States needs to re -establish a new order to replace the current international order, which can weaken the impact brought by China's collapse.

This is also the fundamental difference between China and the Soviet Union.The Soviet Union is just a military opponent in the United States, but China is still an economic opponent in the United States.When the Soviet Union's economy collapsed, it could run as usual, but when the Chinese economy collapsed, I am afraid that it would not be just a storm in the tea cup.

The next question is that if the United States rebuild a global order that abandon China?The answer is possible, but it is difficult and unrealistic in the short term.Even if everyone has hotly discussed now, the three major economies in Europe, the United States and Japan form a new free trade zone, but then it will inevitably require other developing countries to participate.Any international trade system must not only be the advanced part of the industrial chain. It also needs countries with other factors such as resources, energy, and human beings.

What's more, as mentioned earlier, the current international trading system is very fine. If the United States deliberately put aside China's reconstruction of a trading system and rebuild global order, China will naturally use its influence to form a opposite organization with its tit.In fact, there are similar organizations in China, such as the AIIB.Of course, these institutions are currently only supplemented by the current order, and activities are unwilling to involve in the United States and other countries.

In other words, China's current leading international institutions have not threatened or replaced the current system.However, if it is forced to start another stove, Beijing will definitely not admit defeat.It's just that the result is naturally a defeat.

Does the United States currently have such a willingness to completely rebuild global order?Although the US President Trump attacked all sides and fired trade with countries such as China, the European Union, Japan, Canada and other countries, it is clear that Trump will retreat on advances, and use tariffs and other means to knock on various countries, and then force it to negotiate to use it to negotiate to use it to negotiate to use it to negotiate to use it to negotiate to use it to negotiate to use it to negotiate to use it to negotiate to use it to negotiate to use it to negotiate to use it to negotiate to use it to negotiate to use it to negotiate to use it to negotiate to use it to negotiate to use it to negotiate to use it to negotiate to use it to negotiate to use it to negotiate to use it to negotiate to use it to negotiate to use it to negotiate to use it to negotiate to use it to negotiate to use it to negotiate to use it to negotiate to use it to negotiate to in orderTo achieve Andrdquo; the purpose of the United States.

In other words, overthrowing the current order is not Trump's fundamental goal, and to satisfy its Andrdquo; the purpose of the United States is the fundamental. What the United States wants is the amendment to the current order in order to meet the interests of the United States.

Obviously, Trump is not the same as the other President of the United States before, such as Bush, Obama, etc., prefers to maintain the United States' global leadership by selling US values.But this method not only did not benefit the United States, but instead involved the United States into the quagmire in many regions.The interests of the United States are damaged.Therefore, Trump chose a more direct way to protect the interests and value of the United States.

Therefore, for China, the most important thing is to know what extent does the United States under the leadership of Trump hopes to revise global order?How deep is the conflict with China?The biggest elasticity of the current international order is that any rising country can get the corresponding status in it, and can obtain its own demands through bargaining.Naturally, it may also cause the existing interests to be damaged.The most obvious is naturally the United States as a leader.

China's rise and the amendments to the existing order are conflicted with Trump's amendments, and is it irrelevant?Although China is ambitious in the economic field, it can be seen from this Sino -US trade war that China's strength is still not as good as the United States, and it is impossible to impact the United States in the core field.Although China seeks greater influence and speech, it is still quite far away from the United States.

In this regard, the demands between China and the United States are not irreconcilable.Therefore, as long as the water and fire are not allowed to break a step, Sino -US relations will naturally have room for turning.

(The author is Beijing freelance)