Yu Zhi: China should carefully think about the overall structure of opening to the outside world

Yu Zhi

In July, after the official start of the Sino -US trade war, the European Union, Japan, the European Union and the United States reached a intentional agreement, which will be committed to promoting more free trade in zero tariffs and less subsidies (final zero subsidies).

As the United States, Europe and Japan are the largest developed economies in the world, the achievement of this agreement has caused a strong impact on the market and caused great external pressure on China.At the same time, Chinese leaders visit the five countries of the Middle East and Africa to strengthen cooperation with these countries, including assistance to them, and call on developing countries to jointly maintain Andrdquo;, Co -cope with the pressure of the United States.

The author believes that the trade compromise in the United States, Europe, and Japan has its inevitability. The next step will jointly put pressure on China to evolve into Andrdquo; China should think carefully that it should insist on developing developed countries such as the United States, Europe, Japan and other developed countries.Different economic and trade models, even drawing Asia -Africa -Rathered developing countries, confronting the United States, Europe and Japan, or adjusting their own development models, closer to the United States and Europe, and fusion in other words?Is it integrated into the United States, Europe, Japan or United Africa and Latin?

1. Andrdquo; and the inevitability of Andrdquo; in the United States and Europe. Since the exacerbation of the Sino -US trade friction last year, some Chinese media and experts have stated that they must strengthen cooperation with Japan and the European Union to compete with the pressure of trade war in the United States. In factThe Chinese government did have made efforts in this regard, including Prime Minister Li Keqiang visited Japan, strengthened cooperation, negotiated with the EU's reform of the WTO, etc.

However, it has proven that although China can strengthen contact and cooperation with Japan and the European Union, it has not made any progress on the issue of hoping to take consistent actions with each other and oppose the US trade policy;

On the contrary, these countries hope to negotiate with the United States alone, and they are unwilling to unite with China; the final result is that these three parties basically solve the main differences between them and form a united front.

This result is completely in line with the author's previous expectations and comments, as well as the inherent logic of things.The reason is that although Japan, the European Union and the United States have contradictions, their economic system and trade policy are the same as a whole. They follow the leading role of market mechanisms in economic development.Attaching importance to the protection of intellectual property rights, its dispute is only due to the trade policy (barriers or subsidies) of a few industries;

On the contrary, there are great differences in the United States, Europe, Japan, and China. They all believe that China's current economic system is not a real market economy system (the three parties have not recognized China's market economy status so far), but the government -led economic model. Special specially, especiallyIt directly intervened in economic development and distorted resource allocation by strengthening state -owned enterprises, controlling private enterprises, and strengthening industrial policies (excessive government subsidies).Europe and Japan formed unfair competition and even Andrdquo; these accusations were reflected in the common statement issued by the three parties issued by the United States and Europe at the end of May.

Therefore, the internal contradictions of the United States, Europe, and Japan must be far less than their contradictions with China.The final development result is Andrdquo; "US, European, and Japanese compromises andrdquo; instead of Chinese and" United Out of the United States and the United States andrdquo; or Andrdquo; this is inevitable.

It is expected that the next step of the international trade dispute is from Andrdquo; "US -European -Japanese compromise andrdquo; to Andrdquo;Together with pressure on China, China requires China to reform its own economic development model and foreign trade model.

They will not only adhere to this requirement in their bilateral negotiations with China, but also jointly promote the establishment of new rules for state -owned enterprises, industrial policies, and intellectual property protection under the framework of the World Trade Organization to restrict China.

2. Should China confront the United States, Europe, and Japan collectively confront them?The next question is: China should not care about the accusations of the United States, Europe, and Japan, and adhere to its different development models, that is, "Is the market economy characteristic andrdquo; market economy? Recently, the debate of the Sino -US ambassador in the World Trade Organization, which focuses on the"Market economy andrdquo; sharp opposition.

The US views reflect the three parties of the United States, Europe, and Japan on Andrdquo; and the criticism of China's existing development model.

In fact, many internal market economists and many industry people have also criticized many policies and measures in China in recent years. They believe that they are anti -market -oriented.It is consistent.If China ignores these external and internal criticisms, or blindly blame its "distorting the facts Andrdquo;, even pretty much emphasizes its" market economy Andrdquo; this is what other countries have the right to define the market economy Andrdquo;(The tone of the Chinese trade organization ambassador to the World Trade Organization), it is not only refusing to refuse different internal opinions, but also collectively confront each other with developed countries.Is this the result China wants?

If China wants to return to Andrdquo; closed economy, it is free to define Andrdquo; "market economy andrdquo;, the outside world naturally does not need to be questioned.However, if you want to develop an open economy and win -win cooperation with developed countries, you should respect most of them.

Otherwise, developed countries will inevitably hold a group to deal with China: either the United States, Europe and Japan form a joint free trade zone to overhead the WTO, thereby forming discrimination against China in essence;Practice at the same time.In any case, the result is collective confrontation between China, the United States, Europe, and Japan.

The core and center of gravity of opening up to the outside world after the 1980s is the opening of their advanced technical equipment, management experience, and system models of developed countries represented by the United States, Europe and Japan.The internal reform that is adapted to internal reform is market -oriented reform, which is essentially the institutional model of developed countries.This opening and reform is the fundamental cause of great achievements in China's economic development over the past 40 years.If the overall tone of China's relations with the United States, Europe, and Japan is from cooperative to confrontation, it will change China's basic situation to open to the outside world, which will affect domestic reform, thereby shaken the overall strategy of reform and opening up.This is the weight that China cannot afford.

3. China should turn to Andrdquo; Some people may say that in addition to the United States, Europe, and Japan, some friends may still be open to the world or even cooperate with them to fight against them.The United States and Europe. In recent years, China has vigorously promoted the "Belt and Road Andrdquo; ANDRDQUO;, the AIIB, and the BRICS organizations, and other international cooperation plans or organizations. The subjects targeted are developing countries (although there is no exclusion of developed countries).

In addition to increasing the consideration of foreign economic and trade cooperation, it is clear that there are also strategic considerations to expand international influence and attract relevant countries to compete with the United States, Europe, and Japan.

This involves a fundamental issue: Is the essence, core, or subject of China's openness to the outside world, is it a developed country in the United States, Europe, Japan, or developing countries for Asia, Africa, and Latinos.Before the reform and opening up of China in the 1980s, it was not completely without Andrdquo; China had many friends of developing countries at that time, and it was opened to them.There are no advanced technical equipment, management experience, and system models for China to learn from, but on the contrary, it depends on China's large amount of assistance.

If the relationship between China and the United States, Europe, and Japan enters the deadlock, and turn the focus of openness to Asia, Africa, Latinarian developing countries, isn't the basic pattern of opening up to the outside world before the reform and opening up?

As for some people expect to combine the US -African and Latinos to compete, the United States, Europe, and Japan, it is even more unrealistic.First of all, the strength of these countries is weak, and even if all countries are united, they are unable to compete in the United States and Europe.Secondly, most of these countries agree with the values and political and economic models of the United States, Europe, and Japan. Even if they do not agreeInternational cooperation plans or organizations are targeted at developing countries (although there is no exclusion of developed countries).

In addition to increasing the consideration of foreign economic and trade cooperation, it is clear that there are also strategic considerations to expand international influence and attract relevant countries to compete with the United States, Europe, and Japan.

This involves a fundamental issue: Is the essence, core, or subject of China's openness to the outside world, is it a developed country in the United States, Europe, Japan, or developing countries for Asia, Africa, and Latinos.Before the reform and opening up of China in the 1980s, it was not completely without Andrdquo; China had many friends of developing countries at that time, and it was opened to them.There are no advanced technical equipment, management experience, and system models for China to learn from, but on the contrary, it depends on China's large amount of assistance.

If the relationship between China and the United States, Europe, and Japan enters the deadlock, and turn the focus of openness to Asia, Africa, Latinarian developing countries, isn't the basic pattern of opening up to the outside world before the reform and opening up?

As for some people expect to combine the US -African and Latinos to compete, the United States, Europe, and Japan, it is even more unrealistic.First of all, the strength of these countries is weak, and even if all countries are united, they are unable to compete in the United States and Europe.Secondly, most of these countries agree with the values and political and economic models of the United States, Europe, and Japan. Even if they do not agree, they hope to open up or help the United States, Europe, and Japan from getting assistance, and they will not be able to form alliances with China and fight against the United States and Europe.day.Moreover, how is it fundamentally different from the African -African and Latin -in -law alliances and fight against the United States and Europe, which is different from before reform and opening up?

In short, what China should think carefully is to strengthen cooperation with developed countries such as the United States, Europe, and Japan, and through its own reforms and integration into the developed country system, it should be strengthened to jointly unite with Asia -Africa and Latinos.Fight with developed countries?Although China can declare that China ’s opening up is comprehensive, and the opening of the United States, Europe,, Japan,,, Africa, and Latin can be carried out at the same time. However, what should be open and foreign -united in the outside world should be carefully thought and clarify.

This problem has been solved in the Deng Xiaoping era, but the Chinese decision -making layer is clearly clarified.

The author is a professor of economics at Shanghai University of Finance and Economics in China

Although China can declare that China ’s opening up is comprehensive, and the opening of the United States, Europe,, Japan,,, Africa, and Latin can be carried out at the same time. However, what should be open and foreign -united in the outside world should be carefully thought and clarify.