Economic Daily News
When President Trump decided to launch a trade war on China, and using high tariffs to fight against China exports to the United States, he ignored a structural flip situation that was appearing, that is, after 40 years of reform and opening upThe largest factory has transformed into the world's largest market.
Let's talk about a message first.Tesla's Chief Executive President Musk signed an investment agreement with Shanghai in early July. Tesla will be known as the Tesla Super Factory, which is known as & ldquo; Shanghai Dubai & rdquo;(GigaFactory 3), planned a pure electric vehicle with an annual output of 500,000 vehicles.Tesla's establishment of a factory in Shanghai is considered to be the new round of iconic results in Shanghai. There are many analysis of all walks of life, and most of them are still related to Made in China.However, Tesla is a super factory that integrates R & D, manufacturing, and sales functions this time. This large -scale investment plan for 500,000 pure electric vehicles is the largest foreign -funded manufacturing project in Shanghai.For Tesla, it is not to be close to production, but to be close to the market.A few days later, Musk went to Beijing again and had decided to set up the first R & D center outside the Chinese district headquarters and the United States in Beijing.
China's reform and opening up began in 1978, and it has just been 40 years.The average annual economic growth rate of these 40 years is 9.5%, allowing China ’s GDP to rank globally from the 15th place in 1978 to the second place in Japan in 2010. As far as the economic development model is concerned, it is mainly external (External needs) orientation.The specific operation is: 1. Open (for capital, technology, raw materials, semi -finished products); 2. After introducing the lack of production factors such as capital, technology, raw materials, and semi -finished productsLu, with a considerable price and labor force with China, is combined with a considerable price and cheap land; and with the three, government functions, on the one hand, it gives foreign investment preferential policies and strengthened infrastructure. The latter is the main reform content at this stage.For 40 years of opening up and reform, China quickly transformed from a lack of lack of economy to a global factory, providing cheap products to the world.
At the same time, in these 40 years, under the aforementioned external demand -oriented operation mode, China's employment has increased, wages have risen, income and wealth have increased, and the middle class has formed, and the scale has continued to expand.It is an increasingly larger consumer market.
──The current middle class in China has reached about 500 million population, the largest in the world;
──The total consumer retail sales, in 2016, $ 4.89 trillion, surpassed the US $ 4.82 trillion, becoming the world's largest consumer country;
──China consumption accounts for 59%of GDP, compared with developed countries such as the United States (70%), of course, there is still great potential.
Compared with the continuous rapid expansion of the Chinese domestic demand market, the situation that highly relying on external demand in the past 40 years has undergone major changes:
──When China's export dependence, that is, the proportion of Chinese exports accounted for GDP, has dropped from 37.2%in 2006 to 19.6%in 2016;
── While export dependence continues to decline, the proportion of China's exports to the United States accounted for total exports from more than 20%in the early years to 18.2%in 2016.
Obviously, President Trump's current trade war on China's high tariffs on high tariffs on the impact on the Chinese economy is much worse than ten years ago. Not only that, it may cause the effect of & ldquo; investment transfer & rdquo;Because China is transforming from a large manufacturing country to a consumer country, and from the world factory to the world market.
Speaking back to Tesla.Tesla's decision to invest in China's large -scale investment this time is not obviously not what Trump is happy, but Musk's decision is mainly to consider two & ldquo;The second is the general trend.The so -called situation is forced to levy high tariffs on steel and aluminum products that the United States exported to the United States. Of course, the cost of raising Tesla's production in the United States is better to move directly to China to produce.It is, as a large -scale and heavy product, it is natural to be close to the market. Tesla to China is naturally for this world's largest and most potential market.
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Entering China?The United States and Europe temporarily stopped
The European Union and the United States traded wars temporarily stopped.U.S. President Trump and the Chairman of the European Union Council, Juncker, met in the White House on the 25th. The two parties agreed that new tariffs including cars will not be added during the negotiations. The EU will import more products such as soybeans and LNG from the United StatesAnd reform the World Trade Organization (WTO).The Wall Street Journal pointed out that the US conflict with the European Union with the European Union will be able to focus on the firepower. After all, the mainland is the priority of the Trump administration's trade sanctions.
Trump said he hopes that the United States and the European Union will discuss a fair and reciprocal trade agreement; Rongccs releases goodwill, emphasizing that the two parties are close partners and allies, not enemies.The United States and the European Union are committed to negotiating and resolving tariffs, but they have not ordered the timetable for completing the negotiations, which means that eased the trade war may be temporary.The consent of the 28 member states includes France and Germany, which have different views on trade priorities.
The focus of the agreement between the two parties includes, first of all, the two parties will not add new tariffs during the negotiations in the future, including cars; second, the two parties guarantee that the tariffs of many industrial products other than the automobiles will be reduced;To strengthen cooperation, the European Union is preparing to start a large number of imported American liquefaction and ensure that it will expand the import of American soybeans; fourth, review the US tariffs on the EU steel aluminum and the European Union retaliation measures;And relax the trade regulations of chemicals, drugs and medical products.
In the end, the two sides agreed to cooperate with other & ldquo; cooperation with similar ideas & rdquo; reform the WTO, and solve the problems of stealing smart property, industrial subsidies, and the behavior of state -owned enterprises; these are the areas of the EU and the United States dissatisfaction with the mainland.
The result of the talks is a great victory of the European Union, because the two parties agree that new tariffs will no longer be set up during the negotiation, including cars, and will start follow -up consultations.Trump avoids the two -line war with the mainland and the European Union, and political pressure can be reduced.
EU officials pointed out that Juncker is committed to ending the U.S. tariffs on the European Union as a major achievement; German Economic Secretary Atmur tweets, saying that & ldquo; progress has been made to avoid trade war and protect millions of tasks!It's great for the global economy!& rdquo; Bredi, chairman of the House of Representatives of the House of Representatives, said that & ldquo; This is an important first step.& rdquo;
EU senior officials said & ldquo; I see another Trump, which is completely different from Trump who has previously tweeds and talks.He was focused and serious, and seemed to see things that are good for the market & rdquo;.Another person familiar with talks said Trump is eager to find a solution.
Many people may still have the Guangzhou Fair, which may have two or thirty years ago.It's right.From the Canton Fair to the Expo, the information reflects the change of a large pattern.
