Taiwan Industry and Commerce Times Society
Xu Zhong, director of the Research Bureau of the People's Bank of China, publicly wrote the article on July 13, based on the title of "The Fiscal Policies in the current situation", and directly pointed out from the perspective of the Ministry of Finance to expand the financial expenditure policy of not active, tax reduction and fee reduction effects, etc., Questioning fiscal policy is even tight.Xu Zhong even shouted: & ldquo; The positive fiscal policy without deficit increases is a hooligan.& rdquo;
The Ministry of Finance of the Mainland faced the name of Xu Zhong's name. After three days, he countered an anonymous document and believed that the local debt crisis belonged to & ldquo; Chinese national conditions and political reality & rdquo;Economy, fiscal policy, and monetary policy makers also face major challenges, mainly & ldquo; how to rush the overview angle from a small country to the active perspective of the great country & rdquo; look at the question.The Ministry of Finance's response article suggested that the finance and the central bank should perform their duties, & ldquo; they do not make a mess, nor do they require the other party to chaos as & rdquo;
Xu Zhong and the Ministry of Finance's pen warfare, detonating the unprecedented & ldquo; Mother -in -law and wealthy father quarreling incident & rdquo;, under the pressure of the United States under the banner of trade war, under the pressure of soldiers, the penalty of the central bank and the Ministry of Finance showed it.In the major financial policy, the mainland is conducting a century -old debate. Perhaps we can expect a new wave of changes and are about to occur.
With the policy needs of the overall economic transformation and structure of the mainland, the People's Bank of China and the Ministry of Finance have adopted severe currency and fiscal reform policies to solve the mismatch of financial resources, many foam moisture, non -banking system borrowing in the name of financial innovation, illegal funds, and local debt.Growth, increased corporate debt, and government and civilian system debts soaring GDP.
However, the adjustment of the economic structure will inevitably experience a period of pain. In terms of overall economy, although the second quarter GDP that the mainland has just announced has maintained a growth rate of 6.7%, the export growth of foreign demand has decreased from 17.6%to 12.3%.The growth of growth has decreased from 7.6%to 5.2%, and the growth rate of consumption related to domestic demand has decreased from 9.8%to 9.0%. Regardless of investment or consumption growth, it has been a new low for many years.
In addition, in order to combat financial criminal behavior of illegal funds, the People's Bank of China strictly controls the flow of funds. Even if the preparation rate of deposits is reduced and the release of RMB 700 billion in funds, they all adopt a targeted reduction to ensure that the inflow of funds into the real economy and small and medium -sized micro -enterprises.The central bank strictly controls the funds to allow the mainland's P2P gold platform this year to create a series of closure. According to the "China News Network" report, within 50 days from June to July this year, 163 P2P online loan platforms have been with difficulty in withdrawal, and the boss runs the road.Waiting for closure, more than 236 civil loan platforms have accumulated & ldquo; explosive & rdquo;
According to mainland media reports, on July 18th, there were 6 online loan platforms in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou had 6 online loan platforms in China.Rough calculation, the cumulative amount of these six platforms exceeded RMB 100 billion, which is imaginable.
Not only did the private lending detonation of the chain chain, but the debt defaults of medium and large enterprises also had warning. On July 18, the largest corporate default case in the history of the mainland, Yongtai Energy, which operated coal, had increased debt in the past 5 years.After 4 times, after the huge bonds of 10 billion yuan in RMB for two consecutive years, this year only raised 3.6 billion yuan. On July 5, Yongtai Energy had a breach of 1.5 billion yuan in bond defaults, triggering 13 other bonds crossing breach of breach of breach of contractThe total amount of Yongtai Energy Debt is as high as RMB 72.2 billion.
Just last Sunday, Mainland's IT Retail Pass Giant Trippy Group reported the repurchase crisis of RMB 55.8 million (about NT $ 260 million).It costs 30 billion yuan to acquire the world. What is confusing is that the Tri Signed a comprehensive strategic cooperation agreement with the ICBC Nanjing Branch, the Bank of China Jiangsu Branch in Nanjing on June 25,In fact, bond defaults occur, which brings new tightening pressure on the bond market that has already been very tense.
Local governments and state -owned enterprises are facing the pressure of funding tightening. Naturally, the central bank can relax the silver root. Therefore, recently, the central bank will launch & ldquo; a new round of Chinese version of & rdquo;The persistence of leverage, structured structure & rdquo; on the other hand, it is facing the pressure of the rapid depreciation of the renminbi. Relaxing silver roots may have abandoned the deleveraging policy that the Chinese leader has adhered to, and it is more likely to cause the depreciation of the exchange rate of out of control.
This is exactly what Xu Zhong, the director of the Research Bureau of the People's Bank of China.In particular, the central government still has room for debt raising. Whether it is borrowing or tax cuts, it can provide lubrication for a more active financial expansion policy to lubricate the tightening borrowing market and bring new momentum for the continuous economic growth.
Dong Ximiao, a senior researcher at Renmin University of China Chongyang Financial Research Institute, accepted an interview with this newspaper's "Wang Pao" that the Central Political Bureau meeting to be held in late July is an important observation point.However, it is still unwilling to put it to small and micro enterprises. If the Ministry of Finance can reduce taxes to substantially reduce the burden on small and micro enterprises, or reduce residents' taxes to stimulate consumption, a series of fiscal policies to expand domestic demand or assist small and micro enterprises should be conducive to benefitEconomic growth in the second half of the year.
The mainland is facing the pain period for the transformation process. Both the central bank and the Ministry of Finance have undergone the pressure that is unimaginable. The two -sides have unprecedented strokes before the outbreak of the mainland.In the direction of fiscal policy, the turning point will inevitably have a profound impact on Taiwan's economy and finance.
