In the situation of the Sino -US trade war, the National Bureau of Statistics of the Mainland has recently brought out the overall economic transcript in the first half of this year. The annual growth rate of GDP (GDP in China) is still 6.8 %, of which 6.7 % are also 6.7 % in the second quarter.It shows that the mainland economy can still hold the foot in the trade war.However, the US attack methods may emerge endlessly. Whether the mainland economy has the ability to fight & ldquo; long -lasting war & rdquo; to be resistant to whether its domestic demand departments can accelerate and expand, to reduce export dependence, alleviate foreign & ldquo;Trade coercion & rdquo;.In this most important job, the mainland officials and people still have a lot of effort.
The National Bureau of Statistics recently announced the report of the national economic operation of the mainland in the first half of this year, which is the above -mentioned economic transcript.In this half of the year, because the United States launched a trade war on mainland China and the spearheads were very sharp, which made China a bit passive, the mainland economy tolerance was attractive.However, the just announced economic transcript shows that the situation in the middle of the year is okay.
In terms of the most important GDP data, the annual growth rate in the first half of this year was 6.8 %, which is only a mild decline compared to the increase in this increase (both 6.9 %) in the first half of last year and the whole year, and it still significantly exceeds the government's economic growth this year.Rate target 6.5 %.In this regard, the National Bureau of Statistics is generally stable as the overall, stable, and good, and it is stable and good & rdquo;
Why can the mainland economy grow steadily when the Sino -US trade war is fierce?The reasonable answer should be that this trade war was still & ldquo in the first half of this year.Punish ZTE Corporation and restrict Chinese investment in US companies.And the sanctions that really hurt the Chinese side & ldquo; bone & rdquo; $ 50 billion & rdquo; even & ldquo; $ 20 billion & rdquo; the United States announced the plan in the first half of the year, and it will not be gradually implemented until early July.
Therefore, in the first half of the year, the internal and external economic activities of the mainland maintained a normal operating state.For example, the overall export trade has not decoupled from the trend of recovery in the international market, and it continues to expand; domestic investment and consumption also have decent growth.Therefore, in the first half of the year, the mainland economic transcript could not be seen in the Sino -US trade war & ldquo; ax chisel & rdquo; traces.
However, it is very subtle. In the past six months, the mainland real estate market has resurrected the style of speculation, and it seems to play the role of economic growth pillar. For example, the national average housing price has continued to rise and difficult to increase, and some cities have seen queuing to snap up the essence of real estate.In fact, this is unhealthy.The reason behind it should be that the local princes should be shocked by the Sino -US trade war. They are worried that the economic growth in their respective jurisdictions will be impacted and the performance is not good. Then they loosen the policy of regulating the housing market that the central government has insisted on in recent years.EssenceThe above reports of the National Bureau of Statistics also show that in the first half of the year, the annual growth rate of national real estate development investment reached 9.7 %, which was significantly higher than the GDP increase of 6.8 % during the same period.
In this way, it is necessary to rely on the economic system supported by the housing market, which is really difficult to deal with the lasting war of the Sino -US trade war.Although China ’s most powerful fighting for this war is a solid domestic demand market, and residents buying houses is an important domestic demand. However, after years of excessive development of the mainland housing market, it has occupied too many economic resources and bank credit, which constitutes a lot of trouble.Therefore, the domestic demand to be developed in the central government is not in the housing market, but in other people's consumption and investing in the real economy (industrial).
How does the latter two have performed recently?Look at private consumption first. In the first half of this year, the per capita consumption expenditure of residents across the country was 9,609 yuan (RMB, the same below), and the annual annual growth rate reached 8.8 %. The actual increase in price factors increased by 6.7 %.%.
Secondly, the national fixed asset investment (mainly physical investment), the total amount of 29.73 trillion yuan in the first half of this year, an annual increase of 6 %.The increase in investment in central enterprises is the main force of investment growth.
Looking at the performance of private consumption and real economy investment in the last half of the year, they are all happy and worried.Simply put, both have a certain degree of growth, but the growth rate and range need to be greatly improved.More importantly, the future development of the two should be highly particular about & ldquo; optimize & rdquo;, and let the two drive each other.If high -quality investment can produce high -quality products, it will stimulate consumers to buy gas; and consumer willingness will not only improve, but also encourage manufacturers to strengthen research and development and launch better products.This is an important assistance for the pursuit of industrial upgrading and independent technology in the future.
In the process of consumption and investment in the two major domestic demand, the mainland can gradually reduce the relative dependence of external demand.For example, in the first half of this year, mainland export dependence (export volume accounted for GDP) has fallen to 17.93 %, a one percentage point from the same period last year.
In the future, if this dependence can further drop to 15 % or even lower, the impact of foreign trade sanctions on the mainland's economic impact will significantly reduce, and the mainland government can naturally loudly & ldquo;In addition, reducing the dependence of external demand can also enhance that the mainland economy has fluctuated and shocked the international market fluctuations.
