A US -China trade war set off by US President Trump is changing from words to reality. Not only did Trump's punitive tariffs on some of the punitive tariffs on imported goods from China had begun to be implemented, andThe list of this product is getting longer and longer, and it may eventually expand to most China exports to the United States.
China has adopted a tough counterattack policy since the beginning, announcing that it is improving punitive tariffs on US export products.The two largest economies in the world in the world are setting off the largest trade war in history.
Because China is in the core position of the East Asian industrial chain, many industrial products produced through the division of labor in East Asian countries are assembled and sold to the United States through China.The East Asian economic pattern will have a certain impact.
The trade war came suddenly, but it was not very surprised.In essence, it is an inevitable product of the highly politicization of economic mutual dependence between China and the United States.Since the continuous acceleration of economic globalization in the 20th century, this political leveraged role that has continued to deepen from each other and the country's economy has been common.One country's serious dependence on another country is easily used by another country to solve domestic or international difficult political or economic problems.This theory of international relations was proposed earlier in the book "Power and Mutual Dependence" by famous American scholar Robert & Middot;Battle and direction still have important inspiration.
The book "Power and Mutual Dependence" focuses on how the country's political influence on the other party has achieved political influence on the other party.Generally speaking, when one country's economic dependence on another country is far greater than the other party's dependence on themselves, the other country is likely to adopt & ldquo; contact strategy & rdquo;Or differences in other issues.This view does not seem to have much novelty today, but because the theory was proposed in the background of the Cold War, it broke through the traditional thinking of people's military strength and political and diplomatic measures at that time.Politics, from the field of security, military, etc. & ldquo; high politics & rdquo; to the turning of topics in the field of low political & ldquo; low politics & rdquo;
Today, the economic and trade dependence between China and the United States is also highly asymmetric. Starting from the perspective of & ldquo; power and mutual dependence & rdquo;, this provides a real power foundation for Trump to launch a trade war.According to US data, the trade deficit between the United States and China in 2017 was as high as 375 billion US dollars. This number expanded more than the US $ 347 billion in the previous year.This means that the products sold in the United States every year are far greater than the goods sold in China to China.As a surplus country, the income obtained from China -US trade is far greater than the income obtained from the United States from the US trade.This is not a short -term phenomenon, but a long -term trade imbalance in trade since the 1990s.
The long -term US trade surplus has exchanged huge US dollar foreign exchange revenue for China.If Sino -US trade enters the freezing period in an instant, although both the interests of China and the United States will be damaged, the degree of damage to China's interests will be far greater than the United States, because this US dollar foreign exchange income will be greatly reduced.In other words, in the context of the current global overcapacity, the United States, as the largest deficit country and the US dollar issuer, occupies a strong discourse position in the buyer market.This is the real version of & ldquo; power and mutual dependence & rdquo;.
Although the United States occupies the upper hand in mutual dependence's determined power relations, China is not unlicensed.Globalization and the big country game in the context of mutual dependence, different from the traditional realistic politics & ldquo; zero -harmony game & rdquo;The differentiation is more serious, and it is difficult to reach an agreement on the definition of national interests.It is also difficult to form a multinational league in a certain country, because the national interests of each country are fragmented and have different positions in different issues.The opponent country can also put pressure on other parties that rely on more than those who rely on more, and take the same & ldquo; contact & rdquo; Strategic restricting sanctions.
This complicated mutual dependence also shows vividly in the US -China trade war.Although the United States as the world's largest buyer in the world, holding power leverage on bilateral trade issues, because mutual dependence is two -way, the United States' huge orders for China are not enough to take the United States to take the initiative. In the end, this trade war will inevitably compromise with compromiseAt the end of the reconciliation, instead of confronting the traditional international politics, it is out of control.
#P#副#E#First of all, Chinese products exported to the United States include a large number of products produced and assembled in China in China.These companies have strong lobbying capabilities for the White House and Congress, and multinational companies do not want increased tariffs in the United States to hurt their business interests.
Secondly, from an international perspective, countries around the world, including the United States' strategic allies, do not support Trump's unilateral policy.The United States and the European Union, Canada, Mexico, etc. have trade frictions, and these countries are full of trade war.
In addition, in East Asia, since many economies such as Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Malaysia have long been embedded in the East Asian industrial chain, tax increased taxes on mainland China will indirectly affect the economic performance of these regions.EssenceThis can be seen from the sluggish stock markets in East Asian countries in the past.As a result, these economies will adopt an unreasonable independent attitude towards Trump's trade war strategy.
From the perspective of China, the United States still needs Chinese cooperation in international affairs such as North Korea and Iran, which may become a weight that China's countermeasures against the United States.Because Trump is mainly based on a trade deficit of $ 375 billion, China may make necessary concessions in the economy and trade field. By expanding import and relaxation of market access standards, it will gradually reduce the trade surplus of the United States.It can be seen from recently that the US's sanctions on ZTE of China Company's ZTE can be seen that the economic and trade issues between countries mainly involve bargaining and repay. It is a dispute over commercial interests. Although sometimes the differences are large, they are controllable and discussing.
Overall, there is no need to be too pessimistic about the more intense Sino -US trade war.From a historical point of view, in the 1990s, China and the United States had a fierce trade conflict between China and the United States due to the protection of intellectual property rights.After China joined the World Trade Organization, it was in many rounds of negotiations with the West due to the issue of textile quotas. However, these trading disputes that were difficult to resolve were eventually replaced by the new high trade figures.
The political and economic and trade exchanges between China and the United States have been very mechanized, and there are many official and unofficial pipelines on both sides to communicate and negotiate.The trade war is unlikely to evolve into a comprehensive confrontation between the United States and China in various fields. After all, the political power generated by the economic dependence of the economy is limited.
(The author is the assistant director and senior researcher of the East Asia Research Institute of the National University of Singapore)
