(Hong Kong Comprehensive News) Lin Yifu, former chief economist of the World Bank, believes that the United States was not fair to the trade war with China last Friday (6th). China should & ldquo;In addition, American companies also have a lot of interests in China, which can become a Chinese chip. China can even consider selling US Treasury bonds as one of the counterattack methods.
According to Hong Kong media such as "Sing Tao Daily" and "Ming Pao", Lin Yifu said in an interview in Hong Kong yesterday that trade is always a win -win situation. In the past, a huge trade deficit in the United States was not caused by other countries.As a result of excessive borrowing and consumption, China became & ldquo;
Lin Yifu pointed out that if Trump continues to serve as President of the United States, the trade war may continue.He believes that Trump's trade war resolves the trade deficit, which will give the United States a considerable price.
Trump had warned earlier that the first step of China's imported products of US $ 50 billion (S $ 67.7 billion) was only the first step. If China retaliates, the United States will add another $ 500 billion in Chinese imported products.tariff.
In order to cope with this possible continuous trade war, Lin Yifu believes that China can only & ldquo; fight back & rdquo; counterattack.He said that China can counter the tariffs, such as raising the current 25%tariff by 50%to 75%.This can emphasize the US industry, and the automobile industry will be one of the victims.
Lin Yifu pointed out that some American companies rely on the Chinese market, & ldquo; The US automotive industry has only sold more than 3 million local sales locally, but its sales in China have reached more than 4 million & rdquo; & ldquo; If there is no Chinese market, can the American automotive industry be there?& rdquo;
In extreme cases, Lin Yifu believes that China can choose to sell US Treasury bonds as counterattacks.
He said that the United States supports economic growth relied on loose monetary policy and low interest rate environment, leading to sufficient liquidity and promoting continuous rise in US stocks.If China sells U.S. Treasury bonds, it will cause the US interest rate to rise rapidly and will have an impact on U.S. stocks, but he emphasized that this situation does not want this situation, because the development of the United States is good for China and the world.Essence
Regarding the recent rapid depreciation of the renminbi, Lin Yifu believes that the market reflects the trade war, and it is not the impact of the people's bank controlling the depreciation of the RMB to compete against the trade war.However, he believes that there is limited space for renminbi to decline, because China's economic growth rate is still high. It is expected that China will maintain a 6%economic growth rate per year in the long run. In the long run, the renminbi should be appreciated.
In addition, Lin Yifu also believes that China should accelerate the pace of reform. Specific measures include industrial upgrading, expanding domestic demand, financial reform, and social system reforms, etc., to improve economic vitality, keep China a conserved force, face this trade war, and turn in danger.For the machine.
China still has the potential in the future to achieve an average annual economic growth < /strong>
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His optimism of China's economic growth is not consistent with the actual growth rate of the Chinese economy in recent years.China declined continuously after a 10.6 % growth of 10.6 % in 2010. Last year, it increased by 6.7 %, a minimum growth rate in 1990.
Lin Yifu explained that 8 % of the growth potential is calculated from the possibility of production, that is, the supply side angle, and the actual economic growth of each year also depends on the demand side, including export demand, and domestic investment and consumer demand.
He said that since the global financial crisis in 2008, the growth of developed economies such as the United States, the European Union, and Japan is still weak, dragging down international trade, leading to slow export growth in China, and even declined by 7.7 % last year.
Judging from domestic investment and consumer demand, Lin Yifu said that after the global financial crisis, countries have stimulated the economy through positive fiscal policies. Today, these policy effects have been used.From 2006 to 2010, China ’s investment growth was 25.5 % each year, and from 2011 to 2015 to 19.3 %, only 7.9 % last year.
He is more optimistic about consumer demand, because China's employment market has performed well, and family income growth even exceeds GDP growth, so it can maintain 8 % or even higher consumption growth.
In the case of poor international economic environment, Lin Yifu believes that China can rely on domestic demand to continue to maintain high economic growth and achieve the average annual growth of the annual growth of & ldquo; 135th & rdquo;
Lin Yifu is also the director of the New Structural Economics Research Center of Peking University.Regarding the significance of the rise of China's economic rise to other developing countries, he believes that any developing country may achieve a rapid development of the economy as China or East Asia. The key is to know how to transform their comparative advantages into competitive advantages.
However, he was also alert to & ldquo; Huainan was orange, and Huaibei was & rdquo;Lin Yifu said that in the process of pursuing modernization, developing countries should not have the mentality of & ldquo; Xitian Gao Jing & rdquo; blindly move the experience of developed countries to their own country.As a big deal.
Lin Yifu, who has long studied economics for a long time, bluntly said: & ldquo; I haven't seen an example of a successful policy based on the mainstream theory of developed countries.& rdquo;
