Dai Qingcheng: It is difficult for the Sino -US Trade War Port

Early & nbsp; & nbsp; Hong Kong and Macao Sudden Search

After the trade war in China and the United States broke out, the global trade pattern has changed greatly.As an export -oriented economy, it is naturally difficult to be alone.How much the impact of this trade war on Hong Kong has also become a hot topic in Hong Kong recently.

Last Saturday, Hong Kong Chief Executive Lin Zhengyue and the Financial Secretary Chen Maobo did not make an appointment to talk about this issue.The former is politely criticized to criticize the United States to destroy the multilateral trading system; the tone of the latter is relatively mild, claiming that the trade war has a small impact on Hong Kong in the short term, and Hong Kong people do not need to worry.

If Chen Maobo's remarks are to appease the people's hearts, a number of Hong Kong merchants who can feel the influence of the trade war are much pessimistic.Guo Zhenhua, chairman of the Hong Kong Industry Federation, predicted that when attending a seminar yesterday, the Sino -US trade war would have a greater impact on Hong Kong's mold products, plastic industries, medical auxiliary detection tools and equipment, etc. The number of layoffs of some manufacturers may be as many as 500.

In an interview with Hong Kong toy vendors, the proportion of toys exported to the United States in the first half of this year has decreased significantly.Facing the trade war, he may have intensified, and he plans to move the factory in Dongguan, Guangdong to Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam or Myanmar.

However, it is a pity that the discussion of the Sino -US trade war in Hong Kong has still seems limited to the trade field, and rarely discuss the impact of the trade war on Hong Kong -US relations in the future.After all, Hong Kong is a special administrative division under China's jurisdiction, & ldquo; US -Hong Kong relations & rdquo; just & ldquo; China, USA, Hong Kong & rdquo;The U.S. government has changed significantly on the China policy, and it will often be adjusted to Hong Kong's economic and political policies.

Judging from many years of historical experience, no matter which political party in the United States, it will not give up preventing China easily, but the fields that are prioritized or the strategies adopted are slightly different.Among them, the Democratic Party's positioning is to attach importance to human rights and democracy.

Therefore, during Obama's administration, the U.S. government also paid great attention to the development of Hong Kong's political system, human rights and democracy.Xia Qianfu, a former US Consul, known as a master of color revolutionary, has interacted with Hong Kong netizens on social media in addition to from time to time to go to grass -roots events during his tenure. He often comment on Hong Kong political issues high -profile, causing strong dissatisfaction in Beijing.

In contrast, the United States Republican Party pays more attention to the fields of economy, trade, security strategies, and basically adopt ideological offensive and economic and trade cooperation in China.Therefore, after Bush came to power, the anti -China proposal was put on hold.

After the Republican President Trump came to power with little experience in politics, he was busy dealing with the domestic party struggle in the early days, making it rare for Sino -US relations to have a buffer period for more than a year.This also explains why the current US Consul General Tang Weikang in Hong Kong has been new, and has been performing low -key in Hong Kong's political issues in the past two years.

With the further clarity of Trump's strategy for China, the United States is likely to play a match with China in the future of economic, trade and security, and even small conflicts.

It is foreseeable that once the Sino -US trade war is upgraded, it is not limited to the economic level, it is most likely a comprehensive wrestling.For example, the two destroyers of the aircraft carrier battle group in the United States, rarely passed the Taiwan Strait on Friday to pressure Beijing.

In addition to the Taiwan card, will the United States play Hong Kong cards in the future to provoke China?I don't have a crystal ball in my hand, and I can't guess whether Trump has this idea.But a reasonable speculation is that since Hong Kong plays a considerable role in the Chinese economy, it naturally occupies a certain position in this Sino -US trade war.If the United States will upgrade step by step in China's provocations in the future, it will inevitably see Hong Kong.

For example, the US government's & ldquo; Hong Kong -US Relations Law & RDQUO; listing in 1992 stated that Hong Kong continued to regard Hong Kong as a completely different region in politics and economy after the return of Hong Kong.However, in recent years, another voice has begun to appear in the United States: Given Hong Kong & ldquo; one country, two systems & rdquo; increasingly shrinking, we should re -consider the relevant terms of Hong Kong's independent status to Hong Kong.

Trump was born in a business community and is familiar with the strategy and power of economic sanctions. It is not impossible to take the policy as a bargaining chip with Beijing.If it is speculated that it is true, the political situation in Hong Kong, which is slightly calm in the past two years, may be up again!