China and the United States officially levied tariffs on Friday (6th) to start a trade war.Lin Yifu, former chief economist of the World Bank, pointed out that the United States has set off this trade war that is not fair. China should & ldquo; to fight back & rdquo; In addition to levying tariffs on American goods simultaneously, American companies also have a lot of interests in China and can become China China and become China.Chips; selling U.S. Treasury bonds is also one of the counterattack techniques.
According to the "Sing Tao Daily" report today (9th), Lin Yifu said in an interview in Hong Kong yesterday (8th) that trade is always a win-win.In the past, a huge trade deficit in the United States was not caused by other countries. The main reason was caused by the over -lending and consumption of the US government and families, but China became & ldquo;
He said that Trump took a trade war to solve the trade deficit, and the United States had a considerable price.
Lin Yifu continued that if Trump continued to serve as the US president, the trade war had the opportunity to continue.He said: & ldquo; If Trump (Trump) he is in his position, maybe he will not change.& rdquo;
In order to cope with this possible continuous trade war, Lin Yifu believes that China can only & ldquo; to fight back & rdquo; counterattack.
He pointed out that some American companies rely on the Chinese market and given & ldquo; the American automobile industry has only sold more than 3 million local sales locally, but sales in China reached more than 4 million units & rdquo;Can the industry be there?& rdquo;
Lin Yifu said that China's implementation of tariff restrictions will affect the interests of US companies.
In extreme cases, Lin Yifu believes that China selling US Treasury bonds is one of the options for counterattacks.
He said that the United States supports economic growth relied on loose monetary policy and low interest rate environment, leading to sufficient liquidity and promoting continuous rise in US stocks.However, if China sells U.S. Treasury bonds, it will lead to a rapid rise in US interest rates and will impact US stocks.
However, Lin Yifu emphasized that he did not want the above situation.
Regarding the recent rapid depreciation of the renminbi, Lin Yifu believes that the market reflects the trade war, and it is not that the People's Bank of China controls the depreciation of the renminbi to compete with the impact of the trade war.
However, he believes that the renminbi has a limited decline. As China's economic growth rate is still high, it is expected that China will maintain a 6%economic growth rate in the long run. In the long run, the renminbi should be appreciated.
Lin Yifu also believes that there is space to adjust the monetary policy and says: & ldquo; If necessary, you can increase the supply of currency and increase credit & rdquo; in order to avoid causing credit bubbles, pedestrians will also guide credit.
Overall, he believes that people still maintain prudent and neutral monetary policy.
On the other hand, the analysis of the Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) quoted economists and trading experts also believes that due to the huge surplus of Sino -US trade, it is difficult for China to levy tax on US commodities.However, China may take multiple countermeasures from the aspects of American companies, US bonds, currency exchange rates, etc.
BBC said that China can even mobilize the people to resist American goods and restrict tourism, study abroad, etc.This method has been used in Japan and South Korea before, and it is quite effective.
