On the eve of China's third quarter economic growth, the market still lacks confidence in the overall economic recovery momentum.Analysts research and judge from the economic indicators released on Friday (October 13) that China has basically got rid of the shadow of shrinking, but it is still necessary to boost the downturn's market sentiment by adding order to stimulate the policy.

The data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China on Friday shows that the inflation rate in September was rising from rising, and production prices continued to fall. The year -on -year performance was inferior to expectations.

The consumption price index (CPI) that reflects the inflation situation (CPI) has changed from 0.1%in August to September, and has a zero growth after two months.Compared with August, CPI rose 0.2%month -on -month, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month.

Industrial producers who reflect the production price of production prices (PPI) decreased by 2.5%year -on -year in September, a narrowing of 0.5 percentage points from August.From the previous month, PPI rose 0.4%in September, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month.

Wang Jun, the chief economist of Huatai Assets, analyzed the United Zaobao that September CPI fell year -on -year, mainly due to food prices, especially pork prices decreased by 22%year -on -year.However, the price of pork will soon rise in autumn and winter, and the CPI will rise.Although the PPI is still negative, the performance of the month -on -month has continued to improve, and it is expected to achieve a positive year -on -year turn."Overall, the contraction status that the market is more worried in the first half of the year continues to alleviate."

According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs on the same day, the September exports and imports calculated in the US dollar have decreased by 6.2%year -on -year, and fell for the fifth consecutive month, but the decline was narrowed from August.From a month -on -month perspective, exports and imports increased by 5%and 2.3%, respectively.

The total value of China's import and export in the first three quarters of this year was 30.8 trillion yuan (RMB, the same below, the same is S $ 5.77 trillion), a slight decrease of 0.2%year -on -year.Among them, exports increased by 0.6%year -on -year, and imports decreased by 1.2%.

The People's Bank of China also announced on the same day that the scale of social financing in September was 4.12 trillion yuan, which was higher than the market forecast of 3.7 trillion yuan.

After the announcement of a series of economic data, the Lukang stock market fell down on Friday.The CSI 300 index fell 1.05%throughout the day, and vomited the increase in the previous two days; the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index reversed the rise in the previous six trading days, with a low of 2.33%.

Xie Dongming, director of the Research Department of the Greater China District of Overseas Chinese Bank, said in an interview that although most of the newly announced economic data is still falling year -on -year, it has improved from the previous month.Essence"The current problem is that the economic data is getting better, and the market sentiment is still sluggish. The two are not on the same channel."

The National Bureau of Statistics of China will announce the growth rate of the third quarter of domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter next Wednesday (18th).Xie Dongming predicts that the growth rate of GDP in the third quarter is from 4.5%to 5%.He said that although there are not much problems to achieve about 5%of the growth target throughout the year, the decision -making layer is still necessary to prevent the sequelae of market emotional spiral deterioration by pushing stimulation.

It is reported this week that the Chinese government is considering increasing the budget deficit rate and launching a new round of stimulus measures.Wang Jun analyzed that it has entered the last quarter this year, and it is not realistic to adjust the budget.However, the probability of the deficit will exceed the 3%limit next year to ensure the stable economic growth in order to ensure greater efforts.