The Institute of Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences issued a report saying that the disturbance of China's economic growth this year will weaken significantly. At the same time, considering the changes in the growth rate of China's economy since the occurrence of base changes in various quarters last year, the law of China's economy has changed in various quarters.Calculate that China's GDP may achieve a growth of about 5.0%this year.
According to the 2022 China Economic Review and the 2023 economic outlook published by the official website of the Institute of Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Science3.4%, 7.2%, 4.2%, 5.2%.
According to the analysis of the research team, in 2023, China's fixed asset investment may show a slight decline in the growth rate of infrastructure investment;Investment is low in front and high, and it is difficult to increase throughout the year. The growth rate of infrastructure investment promoted by policies may lead the growth rate of other two types of investment.
Specifically, in the context of continuing to implement active fiscal policies and policy finance to increase financing support in accordance with major national development planning, as an important means to expand the organic combination of domestic demand and supply -side structural reforms, the organic combination of supply -side structural reformsIn 2023, the growth rate of infrastructure investment will lead the growth rate of other two types of investment. However, since the base of the previous year has risen significantly, the year -on -year growth rate will fall slightly compared with the previous year.
Considering the dual attributes of real estate with investment and consumer goods at the same time, the decline in the year -on -year growth rate of real estate investment in 2023 will continue for a period of time, and it is difficult to increase throughout the year.In fact, real estate is the main form of asset holdings of Chinese residents' families. In recent years, it has accounted for nearly 70 % of the total assets. After buying a house through mortgage loans, residents need to continue to use future income to return home loans for a long time.At present, the adjustment of China's purchase restriction, loan restriction policy, and the adjustment of the interest rate and tax rate of housing purchase loans will change the cost of owned real estate, but the stabilization of the real estate sales terminal needs to be expected to increase the growth rate of residents' income and the expected improvement of real estate prices. This may require several consecutive consecutive times.The quarterly economic growth rate can be achieved.
Investment in manufacturing, affected by the reduction of external demand and the decline in capacity utilization, the growth rate will be high and low, and the growth rate of the annual growth rate may exceed infrastructure investment.
Analysis states that due to the contraction of international demand and the rise of the base, China's export growth rate will be converted to negative growth, and net exports may be dragged down on economic growth.In the first two years after the outbreak, China's foreign trade exports have achieved exceeding expected growth, and the two -year compound growth rate is 26.7%. However, due to the continued tightening of some economies of monetary policy, the global economic growth rate will be significantly released in 2023 in 2023.slow.At the same time, as some countries inflation may decline faster, the increase in prices to China's export volume will decline.In the case of weakening foreign demand and strengthening domestic demand, the role of net exports on China's economic growth may be negative.
The report recommends that the confidence of micro -subjects is urgently needed to enhance the endogenous motivation of economic development.The enhancement of micro -subject confidence not only needs active guidance, but also needs to unswervingly deepen reforms, greater stimulation of market vitality and social creativity, so that industries and industries that lead the future development direction and the employment of employment with college graduates are healthyDevelopment and promoting the good expectations of micro -subjects are continuously realized, so as to achieve continuous reconstruction of confidence in multiple games.
In the context of the contraction of external demand, we should strengthen the adjustment of counter -cyclical adjustment and maintain the necessary fiscal expenditure intensity.After the Asian financial crisis in 1997 and the 2008 international financial crisis broke out, China implemented an expansion fiscal policy and achieved positive results.What is different this time is that the affected China has implemented a relatively loose fiscal policy in the first three years, and the stimulus effect of equal policy will weaken.In this case, the influence of the deficit can be considered moderately, and the impact of hedging needs to shrink to prevent the restoration kinetic energy of the economic endogenous after the epidemic weakened due to external shocks, which effectively alleviates the impact of the international economic cycle.
China ’s economy increased by 3%last year, far lower than about 5.5%of the official goals, and market expectations of about 2.8%.Goldman Sachs Group said on the 17th that Goldman Sachs economist predicted that China's economy would increase by 5.5%this year, higher than 5.2%of the previous forecasts.
