Early
Northern Remember
Colleagues in Beijing went to the mall at noon to find a place to gather together on Thursday, leaving a message on WeChat while walking, and many people outside the restaurants were lining up. "Is the consumption back?"
Has Chinese consumption returned?This is really a lot of attention.In these days, CCTV News Broadcasting every day to promote how the provinces are trying to fight for the economy, and many Chinese media have made topics around the "Spring Festival Fireworks" and vigorously boost market confidence.
Internationally, observers and businessmen have paid an eye on China's consumer market performance. Everyone wants to get two answers from it: 1. Has the Chinese "fast peak" prevention policy succeed?Intersection2. How fast reorganize the world's second largest economy, and then look back before the epidemic is full of opportunities to everyone?
From the current point of view, the situation can be cautious and optimistic.The manufacturing management manager index (PMI), which reflects the prosperity of the factory, expanded for the first time in four months in January.During this Spring Festival, some service -oriented consumption areas have highlights, although not strong.
The number of domestic travelers across China has returned to 88.6%of the same period of the Spring Festival holiday in 2019, and tourism revenue has returned to 73.1%of the same period in 2019, reflecting that people are psychologically close to the shadow of getting rid of the infection, but per capita consumption is still still consumption.Can't keep up.In the field of local consumption, online e -commerce sales and movie box office are happy. According to the VAT data of the State Administration of Taxation, the national consumer industry sales revenue increased by an average annual increase of 12.4%compared with the Spring Festival holiday in 2019.
Some analysts described the first consumer market in the Spring Festival after the Chinese epidemic as "warm but not warm".
However, no one dares to ignore the awakening of this huge economy.The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised the global economic growth forecast of 2023 at the end of January, from 2.7%in October to 2.9%. One of the major reasons is that China ’s re -opening will be“ faster than expected (global).Revisit and pave the way. "IMF's prediction of China's growth this year has also been greatly raised from 4.4%in October to 5.2%. China is expected to become the world's growing locomotive and stabilizer again.
During the Spring Festival, a meeting with friends in business people often appeared: When will I go to China again?Those foreigners who have been in China who have been in China for many years know that no matter how confident Western media, this wave of epidemic in China has passed.The problem now is that after three years of alienation, the "homeland" that foreign companies have been familiar with are very unfamiliar. Everyone has to recover the motivation to expand China's business before, and it is a bit embarrassing, and it takes a little courage.
Since the start of the Sino -US trade war in 2018, many merchants have not put eggs in a basket and transferred the industrial chain out of China, including Southeast Asia, India, Africa, etc.Since 2020, China's rigorous epidemic prevention measures, coupled with rumors and practical measures of politics to interfere or unwilling to enterprises, have made international enterprises go for China.However, everyone also knows that the scale, depth, and growth of other markets are far worse than China, and risks still need to be dispersed. However, once China is open, everyone still wants to compete here.
Why is China from opening a foreign businessman?Since mid -December, a number of provincial and municipal governments and foreign trade enterprises cooperative charter machines have been promoting investment. The main destination countries include Germany, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Sweden, etc.According to Chinese media reports, representatives of foreign trade enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are full of minds on the plane: "I haven't returned in three years, do old friends still have our position?" As a result, after the interview, it coincides with the energy crisis of Europe itself.When the challenge, her old customers finally got a big order.Another export company owner lamented: This time, going to sea after the epidemic was not to grab orders, but returned to the world.
These little bit of stories only explain a simple truth again: the huge market volume and economic growth potential is China's largest and most universal charm and soft power.
China also knows that its market forces are huge, so it will "reward" or "punish" some countries that are "reward" or "punishment" to China that are friendly or unwavering in China.However, China sometimes underestimates the costs involved, because the market toolization is a double -edged sword. Once the other party has no expectations for the Chinese market, it has no bond.In recent years, China -South Korea relations are a specific example. After the Sad incident, Korean companies have withdrawn from China and South Korean entertainment stars.Outside of the closure, the Chinese class could not be opened in college, which exacerbated each other's diaphragm and evil sense.
At present, the U.S. government understands China's advantages and weaknesses, and sacrifice the sharp offensive of scientific and technological interruptions and decoupling, which is not only to curb China's scientific and technological development, and at the same time, it will reduce the mutual needs of the world and China.These measures have achieved considerable results. The above mentioned that some multinational enterprises have moved the industrial chain out of China to avoid being caught in the gaps of geopolitical wrestling in China and the United States. The Russia -Uko -War that broke out in 2022 has even more geopolitical tension.Now that China is actively returning to the world, geopolitics has become a new burden that it cannot remove.Although, because of geopolitical considerations, there are some values and countries with different Western countries to choose to strengthen economic cooperation with China, and there are many such examples in the Middle East.
When China and the world are closer to each other again, new geopolitical risks and environment become unfamiliar. The uncertainty of China's recovery speed is a situation that everyone needs to adapt, but there are more methods than problems.The experience of over the past three years is a special lesson. The theme is that China and the world are inseparable from each other. Now even trembling will approach again.
