Glacier Ideological Library Researcher 丨 Guan Buyu
In 2023, real estate returned to the pillar industry, and opened the room for imagination.
The reason for optimistic factions is the three advantages: the policy relaxation, the economic recovery, and the loose currency.In particular, the expectations of loose currency are so strong that some people predict that the housing price of the super -line can still increase by 20 to 30 % this year, 300,000 per square meter.
It really makes people sigh about He Xi tonight, seeing this good person.
01
Stadflation is a new risk
The illusion that has been rising and rising has been in the old dream of high economic growth.If you can print the banknote, you can start a high building, and the world is everywhere.
The three highs of high inflation, high growth, and high house prices are already the old yellow calendar. At present, the main risks are not inflation, but stagnation.
On January 17th, at the press conference of the National Economic Operations in 2022 held by the State Council Information Office, the director of the National Bureau of Statistics, Kang Yi, said:
The current international environment is still evolving, the momentum of world economic growth has slowed down, the global trade situation is not optimistic, and the world economy may face stagnation.
The world is cold, who can be alone?The so -called stagflation is stagnation inflation.The amount of currency circulation is increased, but various economic indicators have stagnated.
The currency is like the oil in the hydraulic pump. The power of the pump is insufficient, adding a lot of oil.At first, the effect was good, and the motivation came up.But after adding it a few times, I found that there was no motivation for refueling.One might be that the oil is too much and missed.
There is also a possibility that this pump has something wrong. It can be covered by refueling. It is getting bigger and bigger to drag the problem, and it will not work.
The principle of long -term inflation causes stagflation is similar.Currency water injection has accumulated a lot of invalid assets, that is, the oil is leaking.
Relying on currency water injection to drive economic growth is a prescription for liquidity to structural problems, delaying the solution of economic structural problems. The accumulation of invalid assets even exacerbates structural problems.Condition.
China ’s large -scale loose monetary policy began in 4 trillions of infrastructure in 2008. Since then, 8 trillion and 12 trillion yuan. The intensity of monetary stimulus policy has increased by round, and house prices have risen.Therefore, the concept of raising water and rising house prices is deeply ingrained.
However, how can there be a good thing in the world that has been rising and rising?The performance of the property market under high inflation and high growth is not suitable for stagflation.
The performance of economic stagnation can refer to Japan, and the main characteristics are differentiation.
02
Performance after differentiation of the property market
In the early 1990s, the collapse of the Japanese bubble economic collapse directly impacted the property market, housing prices plummeted, and housing prices in Osaka, Tokyo, and housing prices in many small and medium -sized cities fell to heels.
Since then, the Japanese economy has opened the stagflation model by debt monetization, and the regional differentiation of house prices is significant.After more than ten years of housing prices in Osaka, Tokyo Osaka returned to about 80%of the foam peak period, but the trading volume shrank sharply.Most of the small and medium -sized cities are lying flat in house prices, and the transaction volume is flattened.
If the Chinese economy has also entered a stagnation, the situation of the division of the property market is similar.Super -tier cities with the same ecology as Tokyo and Osaka may eventually enter a state of high price and low price.This can also be explained reasonably in the microeconomics.
China's super -first -tier cities not only have economic advantages, but also have an incomparable political status of Japan's metropolis. The advantages of public service levels and other regions are greater, and economic opportunities are more collected.These constitute the basic support of house prices in the center of the universe.
However, it is impossible to rise.The favorable factor of policy relaxation and economic recovery is difficult to look forward to long -term and cannot be overestimated.
With reference to the post -epidemic economy of other major world economies, the strength and duration of the rebound are lower than expected. During the epidemic, the economic internal injuries caused by the central mothers of various countries to engage in super loose monetary policy are beyond imagination.
As for favorable policies, the effect is limited.Policies are encouraged to buy a house, nor can it be to eat grass according to cows.The most important economic consideration of individual house purchase is the expectations of income growth.Without the predictions of stable employment and stable income growth, who dares to memorize a mortgage of 20 or thirty years?
The economic growth rate has slowed down, the economic vitality has decreased, and the residents have lost their income growth expectations.Large objects such as houses are difficult to circulate, and it will inevitably cause a decline in transaction volume, and it will lose the motivation to rise rapidly.
So, will the active poke foam before entering the stagflation period will repeat itself in China in 2023, so that house prices in big cities will be cut?
This possibility is not great.
In the past, the bubble economic collapse of Japan was not actively piercing the bubble, but the result of inconsistent policies of the bureaucratic department.There is a lesson in Japan's bloody lessons, and since then countries have avoided such policy errors.At present, the government's policies have settled the tone of the property market clearly.
Therefore, in 2023, the housing prices in China's super -first -tier cities may have some market fluctuations, and it is possible to rise and fall, but it will not be very large.The dream of two or 30 % of the dreams is still good early.
03
High -risk area in the property market
Compared with the super -first -line cosmic center house price, it is even more worried about the property market below the third line.The houses in those areas are cabbage prices, but they are high -risk areas of foam.
The public generally misunderstand the price of asset bubbles. It always thinks that the price is the indicator of the bubble, but it is not.
Bubbles are the departure of prices and value, reflecting the departure of nominal prices and real transaction prices at the market level.
500 yuan per gram of gold has no foam, but the green onions with a price of 50 yuan, the foam content burst.The real estate heat driven by Hegang's last round of shed reforms is a small green onion of 50 yuan.These are the hidden thunder points of the Chinese property market.
To determine the size of the bubble risk, the size of the stock must be considered.For example, the old houses in the center of Shanghai have hundreds of millions of old houses, but there are only one or two hundred buildings in total. There are only one or two buildings listed, which has enough scarcity.Although the unit price below the third -tier, the unit price is low, but the plate is not small, and severe excess.
For example, last year, the Secretary of the Shimen County Party Committee encouraged civil servants to buy a house, bought one to buy two sets, bought two sets of three sets of three sets, and bought three sets of four sets of Thunder.
There are more than 20 million people in Shimen County, as many as 20 real estate.In 2021, 351,300 square meters of residential houses were completed, an increase of 173.9%.The sales area of commercial housing was 582,500 square meters, a decrease of 13.2%.
Regarding the exaggeration of the scale, growth rate and sales speed of this real estate, it is no wonder that you must call to buy three sets to buy four sets.The four sets are too small, and seven or eight sets are only available.How high is the property bubble in Shimen County?
In the last round of real estate sinking, it activated real estate in many regions.
For example, the largest real estate developer is the largest real estate developer of Zunyi City Investment (Group) Co., Ltd., the largest real estate developer.According to data in 2021, the cumulative land reserves of this urban investment company exceeded 4,400 acres, claiming that total assets were as high as 67 billion yuan.
Developers in Zunyi City ranked high, almost all of them were enterprises in the province.How much value support can be available in the property market led by local governments, which can be imagined.
In short, the last round of real estate sinking development is characterized by: a large amount of funds poured in through local government financing platforms, regardless of the actual needs of the local market, a large -scale centralized development.The financial closed loop of funds was completed during the development stage, but market sales could not be closed.
These severe excess houses, no matter what is completed, is more or less or lessIt is a rotten tail building.
In 2023, where will these excess houses go?
Local governments are in the market, and they can't expect.Even if local civil servants bought one set, two sets of two sets, two sets of three sets, and three sets of buying and buying four sets, they could not solve any problems.
Because local finances are tight due to debt pressure, the income of local civil servants is bound to be affected. One set of savings, two sets of three sets of mortgage, what is it to get?
The fiscal market that is fragile and the place where the transfer pays is tossing is a high probability that it is the bubble pile.The fiscal is fragile, most of the local economy is not cheerful. The so -called property market has no real market.
Therefore, it is difficult to return to the sky even if the local government has the heart.Even if administrative intervention methods such as government guidance prices forcibly lock the nominal price, it is difficult to completely resolve the debt crisis behind.Relying on administrative intervention alone, there are always the day when you can't cover the lid.
04
The Chinese property market is destined to be calm in 2023
In short, 2023 in the Chinese property market is destined to be unable to calm down.In the end, is it a dark tide or a stormy wave, and the technical factors of policy conditioning will play a certain role.
However, the general trend of returning to the normal market from the policy market is unstoppable, and the house prices supported by policy beliefs and currency belief will always rise.
Those areas of weak economy and food have not had the basic conditions for real estate development, and the fertilizer that is unable to increase seedlings is unsustainable.How to get water at the beginning, even the interest will come out.
China's super first -tier and strong first -tier cities can not worry about it.In the final analysis, the health of the property market depends on the relationship between market supply and demand, the economic performance is not good, and the property market is not far away.If large cities cannot restore economic vitality as soon as possible, the market support of house prices is difficult to last.
The per capita GDP of the Japanese is close to $ 40,000 and has long -term cost.The per capita GDP per capita in China's economy is only about $ 27,000, and the gap is still obvious.
Therefore, in 2023, it is a key window period for economic development for developed regions.No matter how hard the economy is, the belief of the big city in the property market will be the next Domino.
