International Special Special
The United States has recently issued a warning that China is considering providing lethal weapons for Russia, which is worrying that the Russian war in Ukraine will be further upgraded. Before the outbreak of the Russian and Ukraine war, China -Russia leaders have stated that the partnership between the two countries has no upper limit. One year after the war broke out, China seemed to get closer to Russia and drifting away from Western countries. Faced with unprecedented unity and co -supports Ukrainian Western alliance, China is in order to safeguard the common interests of China and Russia in terms of ideology and geographical politics, Will it cross the Western red line and provide support for Russia military in the military?
The relationship between Beijing and Moscow is "mature and tough, stable as Taishan."
Last month, Wang Yi, director of the Foreign Affairs Office of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, met with Russian President Putin in Moscow, which described Sino -Russian relations.
In fact, as early as January 2021, then foreign minister Wang Yi once described that China -Russia's strategic cooperation did not stop, there was no restricted area, and there was no upper limit.
Wang Yi visited Moscow on the first anniversary of the outbreak of the war in Russia, and once again expressed his statement on Sino -Russian relations, highlighting the friendship between China and Russia.
At the Chinese "Two Sessions" foreign ministerial press conference on Tuesday (March 7), Qin Gang further clarified the Chinese side's position on China -Russia relations: "The more turbulent the world is, the more Sino -Russian relations should move forward steadily."
After the war, Western sanctions were sanctioned by Russia to receive Chinese political diplomacy support
In fact, after the Russian army invaded Ukraine, China has not publicly condemned Russia, and even argued for Moscow that Russia's "special military operations" did have "justice and concern."
Last year, the UN General Assembly condemned the resolution of Russia's invasion three times to vote, and China had voted for three abstains.
Li Mingjiang, an associate professor of Nanyang University of Science and Technology Rajele South International Research Institute, pointed out in an interview with Lianhe Zaobao: "Since the outbreak of the war, China has provided Russia with quite strong political and diplomatic support. China and Russia have maintained normal trade.With other economic connections, especially the purchase of a large amount of energy resources, at the same time provided Moscow with very valuable economic support. "
Although Western sanctions on Russia have sanctions on Russia, China continues to expand trade with this northern neighbor.In 2022, the two countries opened two cross -border highways and railway bridges. Last year, the bilateral trade volume reached a record of 1.28 trillion yuan (about S $ 25 billion).
Compared with 2021, China -Russia's trade volume increased by about 30%, partly because Chinese companies purchased many Russian crude oil and coal at a discount price.
Russia is now the second largest crude oil supply country in China. The 1.7 million barrels of crude oil supplied every day is second only to Saudi Arabia.One and four percentage points.
Russia is also the second largest coal supply country in China. 68.1 million tons of coal exported to China accounts for 23%of China's imports and 32%of Russia's exports, which are eight and seven percentage points higher than in 2021.
In the first two months of this year, China ’s overall exports to Russia increased by 19.8%to $ 15 billion (S $ 20.2 billion); the total imports of China from Russia were US $ 18.649 million, soaring by 31.3%.
In military, China has mobilized more than 2,000 soldiers in recent months to enter Russia for joint exercises, and dispatched fighters to patrol Russia in the Japanese Sea and the East China Sea.Shooting United Navy exercise.
In fact, since 2012, the scale of training between China and Russia has become increasingly larger and more frequent.In addition to holding naval exercises in the East China Sea and the South China Sea, the two countries also held joint military exercises with third parties such as Iran, South Africa and Shanghai Cooperation Organizations.
China Russia seems to be getting closer and closer, Beijing obviously has its consideration.Li Mingjiang analyzed to the Morning Post: "Basically, China hopes that Russia can become political allies to curb the dominance of American hegemony and Western in international politics. When China faces some challenging topics in international relationsIn the West's confrontation on human rights issues and the intervention of Chinese domestic political affairs, Russia will be a favorable ally. "
Li Mingjiang believes that China and Russia also have many common security benefits in the Asia -Pacific region, including the increasing security role of the United States and Japan.
He said: "Russia can help China to respond to some regional security challenges in the Asia -Pacific region. There are no other major powers in the world to play such roles for China. Russia is the only big country that can meet these interests of China."
Recently, the United States has launched a widely diplomatic offensive, saying that information shows that China may provide Russia with lethal military assistance, and warning that China has repeatedly warned China to cause serious consequences.
In this regard, Li Mingjiang believes that China is unlikely that it will provide a lethal weapon for Russia in the near future.He said: "Sino -Russian strategic partnership is not an alliance. Beijing has no obligation to provide support directly to Russia in the military."
Sun Yun, the director of China Project of Washington Think Tank Stimson Center, also pointed out in the interview with Lianhe Zaobao that although Beijing is not completely unlikely to provide weapons for Russia, she does not think it is "urgent or very likely to happen."Things.
Sun Yun said: "China's support for Russia is mainly verbal, not materially. China believes that Russia has a certain reason for the war, but this is not the war in China ... If the war evolved into NATO into NATOSupporting attacks on Russian territory, I think China will feel that it is necessary to reach out. "
China has always emphasized that the territory of the sovereign state has not been violated after the outbreak of the war in Russia.Li Mingjiang pointed out that if China provides weapons and ammunition for Russia in the war, this will allow China to bear the accusations that assist Russia to violate the integrity of Ukrainian territory and blatantly violate the Basic International Guidelines of the United Nations Charter, which will adversely affect China's international image.
He said: "Supporting Russia military in the military is an important step in starting a new Cold War with the United States and allies. This is what Beijing has been trying to avoid it. This will have a negative impact on the relationship between China and the Western world.The price is too high for China. "
Scholars: PoliticsField bias China cannot mediate the Russian and Ukraine War
On February 24th, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a 12 -point statement of "China Stance on Political Resolution of Ukrainian Crisis", indicating the willingness to assist Russia and Ukraine to launch peace talks.
The G20 (G20) Foreign Minister meeting was held in New Delhi, India. Australian Foreign Minister Huang Yingxian also stated to Qin Gang that the world expects that China can use close relationships with Russia to play a leading role in Ukraine issues.
In this regard, Sun Yun does not think that China can play the role of mediation.She said: "No matter how much fantasies in Ukraine have for China, from a political point of view, China is too biased, which is unacceptable to the West. From the actual consideration, China has no ability and no willingness to make a decision on the solution required by peaceful needs for peace.. In addition to calling for peace, why do China play other roles? "
Li Mingjiang believes that theoretically, China can put some pressure on Russia to gradually ease the war of Ukraine."In some cases, especially when both Russia and Ukraine are really intended to cease the fire, China may be able to play a mediation role between Russia and Ukraine, but now these conditions do not exist."
Li Mingjiang said that before starting any political solution process, the United States and many European countries hoped to see Russia being defeated on the battlefield; Russia hoped to obtain it from the war, including the previously swallowed Crimea and the present today.The occupied eastern Ukraine is merged into the Russian territory.
He said: "It is difficult for China to put forward any specific suggestions on these very challenging issues. At this stage or in the short term, Beijing may only show a mediation attitude."
Australian National University researcher Hiscovich pointed out that for Beijing, the key question is not whether the Russian and Ukraine war should end, but how to end.He said in an interview with Reuters: "China still regards Russia as Beijing as the core element of Beijing weakening the strength and influence of the United States, and the overall strategy of building a multi -pole world."
"My Old Friends" Xi Pu's friendship is increasingly heating up
In 2013, the first stop of China's official visit was Russia.At that time, the Chinese official said to Putin, who was only one year older than him,: "I think, my personality is very similar to you."
After that, Putin and China officially met with more than 40 times. The greetings of the two were closer to "dear friend" from "Dear President", and finally became "my old friend".
Chinese officials have emphasized that solid China -Russia relations are "an important and reliable guarantee for international strategic balance and peace."Moscow had previously avoided describing China with "ally", but after Putin came to power in Chinese officials, it directly called China and Russia as "natural partners and natural allies."
Some observers believe that "Putin's trust in Chinese officials is higher than any Chinese leader and any current Western leader before Chinese officials." The Kremlin has also adjusted many policies to China.
Sais Radchenko (SAIS) of John Hopkins University (Sais) has given examples when I was interviewed by the Wall Street Journal, and Putin was deliberately late when meeting foreign dignitaries.In 2007, he also took the Labrador dog to see the then German Chancellor Merkel, who had been bitten by a dog and was afraid of the dog, and wanted to go to the German iron lady.
However, Chinese officials will never be treated by Putin.Laqinke said: "Putin respects Chinese officials, because he believes that maintaining a close relationship with China is one of Russia's most valuable political assets."
In 2014, when Russia swallowed Crimea and established a separatist government in the Basal region of Ukrandon, Putin's relationship with Chinese officials was not shaken at the time when Russia faced isolation and sanctions.His personal support for Putin.
After the outbreak of the Russian and Ukraine war, China -Russia diplomacy still contacts regularly.Since February 2022, senior Sino -Russian officials have held 21 meetings.
Intimate Sino -Russian relations accelerate the cooperation of American allies
China -Russia's two nuclear -supported countries have become increasingly closer, causing the outside world to worry that the formation of "Sino -Russian axis" may challenge democracy west led by the United States and form a new cold war.The door has made China increasingly isolated in its backyard.
In the past few months, Japan promised to double defense expenditure and purchase a Tomahawk cruise missile from Tomahawk, which can reach the target of China in the United States; South Korea admits that the stability of the Taiwan Strait is essential for its safety; the Philippines announced that it is announcedIncreasing four military bases for the use of the U.S. military, and is discussing joint patrols with Australia, Japan, and the United States in the South China Sea in the South China Sea.
I worry about the situation on the Taiwan Strait situation that threatens national security Japanese and Korean defense issues more closely
Analysts pointed out that these situations may happen even without the Russian and Ukraine War, but this war and China ’s support for Russia have allowed countries to accelerate the cooperative relationship with allies.
John Bradford, a senior researcher at the Nanyang University of Science and Technology, said, "Of course, the Japanese people have noticed the situation of Ukraine in an interview with the United States CNN.Make them feel more fragile than expected. "
Japanese leaders believe that China is most likely to threaten their security, and peace between the Taiwan Strait is essential for the security of Japan.At present, this problem is now more urgent.
South Korean leadership also observes the situation in Taiwan with a similar point of view.South Korean Foreign Minister Park Zhen said: "The peace and stability of the Taiwan Strait is necessary for maintaining peace and stability of the Korean Peninsula, and it is also indispensable for the overall security and prosperity of the region."
Seoul is worried that once the U.S. military is involved in any conflict with both sides of the strait, this will make North Korean leader Kim Jong -un organic.
South Korea has begun to require the country to strengthen its own defense capabilities. Some people even think that South Korea should develop nuclear weapons by themselves.
Seoul and Tokyo have worked closely on the issue of defense, including holding joint naval exercises with the United States.
Analysis: China has never really "perplexed" the Philippines to the United States and other cooperation
The Philippines is also negotiating with the United States, Australia, and Japan on the joint patrol mission of the South China Sea.Some analysts believe that former Philippine President Duterte has always been in his own position, but China has never really expressed his "predicament", which prompted the current President President President Presaten President President President President President President President President President President President President President President President President President President President President President President President Presidential's willingness to cooperate with the United States and allies.
Herchiger, a very resident researcher and an expert in Indo -Tai -National Defense Policy, told CNN: "Beijing's continuous 'bullying', just like (February 6) the Chinese Coast Guard used laser to cause the Philippine Coast Guard personnel with laserA brief blind event will only allow the Philippines (with the United States) to establish a more stable alliance. "
