Early
Hunsheng Paper
China ’s GDP was released on the day of 2022, and it was not far lower than the economic growth rate of the Weibo hot search list, but the first Chinese population to shrink for the first time in 61 years.
The data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China on Tuesday (January 17) showed that at the end of last year, the Chinese population decreased by 850,000 to 1.41.75 million, which was the first negative growth since the Great Famine in 1961.The population of Chinese newborns fell below 10 million in 2022, half a decrease from six years ago.
Although the Chinese death population also increased by nearly 300,000 last year, Kang Yi, director of the National Bureau of Statistics of China, said in an interview with the media that the main reason for the negative population growth last year was decreased by the decrease in population of childbearing age, decreased in fertility, and delayed marriage and childbearing time.The new birth population is reduced.
As the world's largest population, the news of China's population's first negative growth has caused many people to be prevented. Some netizens bluntly said: "I didn't expect this day to come so soon." But before that, China has a long -term low fertility rate for a long time.The level has triggered the vigilance of population experts, and more and more provinces have experienced negative population growth, and also laid a foreshadowing for the shrinking population in the country.
Zhang Xuying, deputy director of the China Population and Development Research Center, pointed out that in 1992, China ’s total fertility rate had fallen to below 2.1, and China had accumulated a negative growth inertia for more than 30 years.The latest census data shows that the total fertility rate of Chinese childcare women in 2020 is only 1.3, that is, each child of childbearing age has 1.3 children.
From the perspective of the region, Shanghai's first population has a negative growth in 1991.During the 2020 census, 13 of the 31 provinces and cities in China have experienced negative growth, including Sichuan, Jiangsu, Liaoning, Hunan, etc.
Even if it has long been expected to have a trend of negative population growth, it is difficult to reverse, but the fertility rate in China has dropped rapidly in the past five years, which is still exceeding expectations.While three years of crown disease, while hindering economic development, it has also reduced the willingness of many young people in Chinese young people, which has led to further slippery birth rate.Compared with short -term economic shocks, the long -term challenges brought by population atrophy are even more severe.
Liang Jianzhang, a population economist, believes that the impact of reduction in fertility rate in the past five years will take about 20 years to completely appear, but it has a long -term negative impact of China's long -term negative impact that "it is destined to be huge" and the extremely low fertility rate of gray rateRhino "rushed slowly and firmly."
The most direct impact of population reduction on society is the increase in the burden of pension.Official statistics show that in the past 10 years, China ’s 65 -year -old population raising ratio has continued to rise, and it has exceeded 20 % for the first time in 2021, which means that each 100 working age population will raise 20 elderly people, that is, five young people support the supportAn old man.In 2012, this task was shared by eight young people.
In 2022, China ’s labor age population decreased by 6.66 million, and the population of 65 and over increased by 9.22 million, and the aging degree further deepened.If this trend continues, the pressure on the younger generation of the younger generation will continue to increase.
On the other hand, the continuous shrinking of the labor team means that the demographic dividend that has long been supporting the rapid development of China's economy is gradually disappearing.Last year, the proportion of the labor age of the labor age was 62 %, compared with 70 % 10 years ago.With the decrease in labor productivity and rising labor costs, this former "world factory" is facing the threat that competitors who have been overtaken by labor with rich labor force in Vietnam, Bangladesh and India.
While labor is reduced, consumers are also decreasing.As the population enters a downward turning point, the demand for retail goods, real estate and infrastructure is also increasingly decreasing. Not only is the consumption rebound limited, the property market may continue to slump, and investment is difficult to make efforts.At present, the Chinese market, which is still attractive to companies around the world, is still a place where merchants must compete in the future.
Before 2022, multiple national economists predicted that China GDP would surpass the United States in 2030 and become the world's largest economy.
But as China's growth momentum weakens, think tanks in the United Kingdom, Japan and other countries have retracted the time forecast of China's economy beyond the United States.Bloomberg's prediction model also shows that as population factors have been dragged down 10 years later, China's leading advantage may be reversed.
However, the former vice chairman of the Chinese Population Society, formerly New optimism predicts that the total population of China will still exceed 1.4 billion by 2035, and it will still be more than 1.3 billion in 2050. The huge inertia of population will continue to exist in the early stages of negative growth and labor supply supply.It is still abundant.Original new believes that whether to seize new opportunities depends on whether it can change the economic development model and at the same time change the research paradigm and concept.
Japan and South Korea, which are also in East Asia in China, have first appeared in the population to grow negatively.European countries such as Germany, Sweden and Denmark are also facing the same situation.However, a large -volume economy like China has a population atrophy, which is still inestimable on the long -term impact of the country and the world. When facing the larger "gray rhino", it is difficult to copy the experience of other countries.
The figure of the population "gray rhino" is still blurred, but its sense of existence will only increase.While responding to the urgent response, the decision -making level should also consider the long -term risks brought by the population problem and explore the transfer of the crisis early.
