A well -performed macro -hedge fund in China reminds that any growth in China's consumption expenditure will be mild, which gives many investors a key theme that will promote the stock market to rise this year.
Bloomberg reported that the Shanghai Banxia Investment Management Center, which manages more than 10 billion yuan (about S $ 2 billion), said in a letter written to investors in December that based on overseas experience, China is expected to be expected to China.After canceling the epidemic prevention restriction measures, a strong recovery of consumption will occur, which may be "problematic."
The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 optional consumption index has risen by 23%since October 31, which has performed stronger than the broader market. Investors have high hopes.The main force.From the perspective of Pinellia, due to the slowdown in income growth, the leverage of residents is at a high level and the adjustment of the real estate market and suppress consumer confidence, and the recovery of consumption will be "very mild."
According to a copy obtained by Bloomberg, Pinellia, led by the founder Li Bei, said in a letter on January 8: "Consumer stocks are likely to face the stagnation and adjustment of the expected reality and stock price."
According to the letter, the Pinellia Macro Hedie Fund rose 1.3%last year, and the total return since its establishment at the end of 2017 reached 240%.
According to the data of the private equity row network, the annualized return rate of Pinellia has been 33%in the past five years, and the performers of multi -asset funds with asset management is not less than 10 billion yuan.Hedge fund strategy ranked second.
Although China suddenly abandoned the "dynamic clear zero" policy leading to surge in infection, economists predict that as the policy support increases, once the epidemic has faded, the economy will rebound faster at a faster speed. It is expected that the economy will this year. This year's economy is expectedThe growth rate will be accelerated from 3%in 2022 to 4.8%.
However, in the letter, Dania Group pointed out that unlike other economies, China's fiscal stimulus is mainly reflected in infrastructure and does not directly increase residential income.Unlike other countries such as the United States, China has always avoided checking checks and providing consumer subsidies to stimulate the way the economy recovers after the epidemic.
Banxia said that even if real estate sales have recovered, developers need one to two years to repair the balance sheet before they will be expanded again.The recovery will be mild, "it is likely to be lower than the" government's intention.
Although the government introduced extensive support measures in November, the degree of landslide sales of residential sales last month was even deepened.
However, Banxia insisted on his optimism and believed that the market may have stood at the starting point of a new round of long -term bull market. The first step is the risk preference repair, and the step? The step is the stability of economic and corporate profits.
In the letter, the first step has been "basically completed", and the second step needs to wait for some time.
