Special
With China's epidemic prevention, many international investment banks have recently raised their estimates for China's economic growth this year.However, some analysts believe that because the income of residents is not easy to increase, China will still take time to stimulate economic policies. It may not be restored until the second quarter or the second half of the year.
Morgan Stanley has twice growth forecast within one month in one month
Morgan Stanley Economic Experts in January Research Report stated that because China restarts the border after ending the dynamic clearance policy, provides policy support for real estate, and relaxes the supervision of the science and technology industry. ThereforeFrom 5.4 % predicted in mid -December to 5.7 %.
This is Morgan Stanley's twice of China's economic growth forecast in 2023 within one month.
In addition to Morgan Stanley, after China accelerated the relaxation of epidemic prevention at the end of last year, many international investment banks began to raise forecasts for China's economic growth.For example, in December last year, UBS raised China's economic growth forecast from the original 4.5 % to 4.9 %; Nomura Holdings raised 0.8 percentage points to 4.8 %; Goldman Sachs raised 0.7 percentage points to 5.2 %.
However, some analysts believe that it is not appropriate to be too optimistic about China's economic recovery. In addition to the Chinese epidemic, there is still a chance to rise, China's consumption demand is also very weak, and the housing market takes time to recover.
Lin Yating, an associate researcher at the National Security Institute of Taiwan National Defense Safety Research Institute, mentioned at a seminar held at the East Asia Research Institute on January 11 that from the content of the economic work conference of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, the focus of economic work this year isExpansion of domestic demand, and to boost market confidence.
Guo Shuqing, Secretary of the Party Committee of the People's Bank of China, also mentioned in an interview with official media Xinhua News Agency in the near future that "the maximum possibility of the current total income into consumption and investment is the key to rapid economic recovery and high -quality development."
Lin Yaling pointed out that although the mainland government will boost consumption and expand domestic demand first in economic work, there will be more active fiscal policies and loose monetary policies than last year;Both income and disposable income have decreased, and it is not easy to improve.Even through the economic stimulus plan, the policy effect will not be displayed for a while, and it will wait until the second or second half of this year.
Taiwan scholars: local issuance of new bonds this year may be reached a new high
She also mentioned that under the limits of people's consumption, the demand for house purchase in the short term is not easy to improve. Therefore, real estate developers will mainly digest the current inventory. This year's real estate development investment will not grow significantly.
The Ministry of Finance of the Mainland has now reached a part of the debt quota in 2023. It will be issued densely from January. The funds will be used for major project construction as soon as possible to increase investment to drive the economy.Therefore, Lin Yaling expects that the total amount of new bond issuance in mainland China this year may increase slightly compared to 2022, reaching a record high.
But she also warns that the construction of funds for funds through debt issuance will not only expand the local fiscal deficit, but as the peak debt compensation is coming, the ratio of old debt to repay the old debt will rise rapidly, but it will also make the problem of local debt a problem become the problem of local debt.A major concern for economic development has caused government funds to be in trouble.
In addition, due to the lack of medical resources and the tide of infection after the relaxation of the zero -zero policy in recent months, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has also begun to conservative and negative about China's economic growth.
IMF General Director -General Georkiya's interview with the CBS Broadcasting Corporation (CBS) in the United States made a judgment of the first 40 years in the 40 years of the Chinese economy in 40 years.
Georgieva also mentioned that after China abandoned the rigorous epidemic prevention and control policy, the epidemic spread rapidly, and the economy also faced a new wave of blows in the short term.Essence
Compared with the IMF, foreign -funded enterprises seem optimistic about China's wave of infection.
According to the Voice of Germany, a public opinion survey of the American Chamber of Commerce in December last year showed that more than 70%of the interviewed companies believed that the wave of infection would not last for more than three months, and confidence will end early this year.
Lin Yaling believes that foreign companies who have invested in the mainland often continue to use surplus for local investment in the mainland. Although foreign companies are not optimistic about the profit in China in 2022, only a few companies have expressed their names to be withdrawn to withdraw their names.Out of the mainland market; although most foreign companies are still watching the next step in land, they are generally confident in the economic recovery of the second half of this year.
However, with the flow of the large -scale personnel of the Spring Festival, the epidemic is likely to spread and outbreak to areas with insufficient medical resources such as rural areas, which means that the trend of infection is still one of the uncertain causes of the Chinese economy in the short term.
Analysis: The lack of selection of checks and balances is still a major disadvantage of the country
When talking about the transformation of the mainland's epidemic prevention policy and the impact on society, Wang Yun, an associate professor of the Political East Asian Institute of Zhengda East Asia, who attended January 11, pointed out that in the past three years, it can be called the most stringent zero measures in the world.The mainland's political stability economic foundation, so strict sealing finally turned to unblocking.
Wang Yun said that it cannot be denied that the mainland system of the mainland in economic development has allowed the living material level of people in various places to grow significantly.
But the results of three years of epidemic prevention also show that the lack of choice, checks and balances, and tolerance for "different opinions" is still the largest hood of the national system.
He believes that although the "white paper movement" that appeared at the end of last year is not necessarily the main cause of the shift of the mainland's epidemic prevention policy, at least when it represents the dissatisfaction of the national society's governance model of the national system, it will no longer choose "lying", and it will no longer choose to "lie down", and but will no longer choose to "lie down", butIt is a problem that the mainland officials must face in the future for the official mainland officials.
