(Beijing French Xindian) The Chinese government is scheduled to release data from the total domestic product (GDP) data for 2022 and fourth quarter in 2022.Double -pinching by the crown disease and real estate dilemma, experts expect China to have the weakest economic growth in more than 40 years.
According to Agence France -Presse, 10 experts interviewed average prediction that China ’s GDP last year will achieve 2.7 % an annual increase, a significant decline in more than 8 % a year ago.
It was eliminated after 2020 after the outbreak of the crown disease, which may be the minimum growth rate since Mao Zedong's death in 1976.
The economic growth target originally set in China in China was about 5.5 %, but the clearance policy in the past year has seriously curbed manufacturing and consumer activities. It is believed that it is difficult to achieve the goal.
Beijing abandoned the dynamic zero -zero policy that adhered to the three years in December last year, and the epidemic prevention measures were tied up, causing the crown disease epidemic tsunami to outbreak in various places.Nowadays, the surge in crown cases in various places have made hospitals and medical staff overwhelmed.
The export of 9.9%last month was the biggest decline since the epidemic
The impact of epidemic on the economy may be reflected in the data announced on Tuesday.Data also include a series of other economic indicators such as China's retail, industrial production and employment.
Zhang Ming, an economist of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that the fourth quarter is relatively difficult, regardless of the index of consumption or investment, growth is slowing.
The export of China in December last year, the biggest decline since the outbreak of the epidemic, a decrease of 9.9%year -on -year; the consumption and investment in November last year slowed down.Zhang Ming described that the three -driving troiders who drove the Chinese economy faced significant downward pressure in the fourth quarter,
Some economists predict that this year's growth will accelerate 5%
Mevison, a senior macro strategyist of the Dutch Cooperation Bank, agrees with Zhang Ming.He believes that China's fourth quarter "almost affirmed decline", and the problem of China's real estate market is still worrying.
However, not all analysts are so pessimistic.Liu Jing, an analyst at HSBC, predicts that the Chinese economy will slow down in the short term, but after three years of strict control, "China has been released again."
Economist Larry Yang (transliteration) described that 2023 will be China's "regaining a certain year".
He predicts that growth in 2023 will accelerate quarter by quarter, and the annual GDP growth rate will reach 5%.This forecast is consistent with other analysts interviewed.He said: "The worst period of economy has passed."
