Northern Remember
When the crown disease epidemic spreads in Beijing, the CCP's annual Central Economic Work Conference was reported on Thursday (15th).Earlier, there were news from the American media that this important economic work conference was postponed due to the epidemic relationship, but Reuters quoted people familiar with the matter.
The Central Economic Work Conference in December each year, analyze and summarize the economic work of the year, set the macroeconomic policy of the next year, and also discuss the growth goals of the new year.
Also on Thursday, the National Bureau of Statistics of China announced the data of the national economic operation in November.According to the Bureau of Statistics, the Chinese economy "maintains the situation", but under the details, many key indicators all have red lights, and the haze is heavy.
Data show that China's social consumption in November decreased by 5.9 % year -on -year, a decline in the second month in a row, and the decline was far exceeding the medium market expected medium value of about 3 %.The national urban survey unemployment rate was 5.7 %, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from October. Among them, the survey rate of urban cities in 31 cities climbed to 6.7 %, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from October, which is the highest level since May this year.
China's industrial added value in November increased by 2.2 % year -on -year, but it was significantly lower than 5 % in October and market expectations.The price of new houses in 70 large and medium cities has fallen for 15 consecutive months, and the property market has not stopped bottoming.
In retrospect, the Central Economic Working Conference held in early December last year was judged that the Chinese economy faced "demand shrinkage, supply impact, expected to change the three stress of the weakened", "the external environment is more complicated and severe and uncertain."At that time, some scholars described the words of the Central Economic Work Conference "very heavy" by the assessment of the situation; if the demand contracted, the supply impact, and the expected weakness occurred at the same time, the national economy was "finished."As a result, at this time a year later, these three pressures not only did not alleviate, but also further increased.So far, the Chinese economy increased by 3 % year -on -year in the first three quarters of this year, and the target of about 5.5 % of the Chinese government's scheduled growth target was a lot. The annual growth rate is estimated to be only about 3 %.lowest.
The newly announced number of the Statistics Bureau points to some of the mysteries that have recently plagued some observers to answer some of the answers, that is, why China announced the "new ten articles" optimizing epidemic prevention on December 7, and suddenly loosened.
In addition to the weakening of the pathogenicity of Omikon virus and the outbreak of multiple cities, economic pressure may be a key factor.Furthermore, under the power of Omikon, the Chinese epidemic may have been out of control in early December.
Senior officials of the WHO said at a press conference on Wednesday that the cases have surged as early as the relaxation of the epidemic prevention policy.I have a friend's family who flew away from Beijing on December 7, and was tested positive as soon as it was landed in foreign countries. They were convinced that the epidemic had spread in Beijing on the 7th.
Signs show that the Chinese economy after loosening does not seem to rebound immediately, but will face new pain because of a hurry.In the case of insufficient medicine and medical resources, the streets of Beijing this week are quiet and more people have not went out. People are either because they are diagnosed with self -isolation or worried that they will get infected when they go out.The same situation also occurs in large cities such as Wuhan, which can be imagined for the crackdown on the retail service industry and catering industry.
How long will this pain period?Several Chinese medical experts said that the epidemic may reach its peak within one month, and Zhang Wenhong, an infected department expert from Shanghai, said recently that the overall survey may take three to six months.Another Hong Kong scholar described that China will bear the "shock therapy" for several months.This "shock therapy" is probably not just for public health and health, but also applicability in terms of economy.
In this atmosphere, how to plan the "stable growth" path of the Central Economic Work Conference, revive external confidence, and attract much attention.
On the day before the critical date on December 7, the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China held a meeting on December 6 to analyze and study the focus of economic work in 2023, and made a new way of "promoting the overall improvement of economic operation".It is precisely the central economic work conference.
China has shifted work from epidemic prevention to "steady growth".Since the triple pressure from last year to the present is demand shrinkage, shocks and expected weakness, then stable demand, stable supply, and stable expectations should be the meaning of regaining the economy.
Good news is that China has more than 30 % of high savings rates, huge human resources, and the world's most complete industrial chain, which are huge growth potential.As long as the government introduces appropriate policies, the key to the economy is not the large -scale stimulus policy, but to protect the enthusiasm of enterprises in micro, and macroly alleviate the pressure of local government debt and real estate enterprises.On the other hand, the trend of the United States' fierce competition in technology and supply chain will not change, which will be a challenge that China must face for a long time.To this end, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council just announced the outline of the strategic planning of domestic demand (2022 to 2035), obviously to hedge the long -term pressure in this area.
2023 is the beginning of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, and the first year of the new government to take power. Li Qiang, who has just been promoted to the No. 2 person in the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Communist Party of China, is expected to be the Prime Minister of China in March next year.Starting in difficulties, how to minimize life losses during the epidemic period, and let the economy landing stabilized, it is believed that it will be the difficult task of Li Qiang's new government. All parties will focus on how the new Chinese government has passed the test and grabbed the beach.
