(Washington Composite Electric) The US economy increased by 2.4 % in the second quarter of this year, not only higher than the previous quarter, but also far exceeded the expectations of analysts.According to the latest estimates of the US Congress Budget Office, the US economy will accumulate sufficient power to avoid recession.
Data released by the US Department of Commerce on Thursday (July 27) shows that it is driven by factors such as the elastic human market supporting consumer expenditure and investment in the equipment.(GDP) increased by 2.4 % by annual rate, which was further accelerated from 2 % in the first quarter.Economists have previously estimated that the growth rate in the second quarter is about 2 %.
Since the end of 2022, economists generally expect that the US economy will fall into decline, but the recent price pressure has subsided. As a result, some economists believe that the soft landing of the Federal Reserve has become possible.Most economists who have been surveyed by the American Commercial Economic Association now believe that the probability of the US economy has fallen into a decline in the next 12 months.
The United States will estimate that the GDP will increase by 0.4 % in the second half of the year.
The estimated numbers released on Wednesday of the US Congress Budget (CBO) show that the US GDP will increase by 0.4 % in the second half of this year, and it has steadily improved in 2024 and 2025.
However, due to the rise in borrowing costs and reduced savings during the epidemic period, consumers with economic effects that boost economic effects are expected to slow down the growth rate slightly in the fourth quarter, narrowing to 1.1 %.
CBO predicts that the inflation rate will slow to 2.6 % in 2024, and the goal of 2 % of the Federal Reserve at the end of 2025.Rising unemployment rates, slow demand and rising interest rates will help lower the inflation rate.
If the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, the target range of the federal benchmark interest rate increases to 5.25 % to 5.5 %.Ma Ji, chief economist of Point72 Asset Management Company, said: "This once again indicates that the economy has not fallen into a decline, and most of the impact of interest rate hikes has appeared ... As long as the speed of inflation is sufficient to satisfy the FedThe additional interest rate hike. "
Application and renewal of unemployed relief funds are reduced
At present, the US labor market has continued to be tense.According to data released by the US Department of Labor on Thursday, in the week of July 22, the number of people who applied for unemployment relief for the first time was reduced by 7,000, and the number of people after seasonal adjustment was 220,000.The number of people who continued to receive relief funds after the first week also decreased by 59,000, showing that some people quickly found new jobs after unemployment.
Gregory Daco, chief economist of Ey-Parthenon, a global strategic consulting agency, said in a report released by GregoryProvide motivation.However, he also pointed out that the US economy still "continues to face major resistance such as continuously rising prices and costs, tightening credit conditions and rising interest rates."
