The Black Sea Port Agricultural Products Foreign Transport Agreement reached by Russia and Ukraine expires after the expires of July 17, Russia unilaterally announced the withdrawal agreement.The outside world is worried that the price of grain will rise again, which will cause global inflation to deteriorate.Western countries such as Ukraine and the United States and Germany criticized the Cremlin's decision, while the United Nations expressed regret to promote the dialogue.
On Wednesday (July 19), the Russian Ministry of Defense further warned that all merchant ships that passed the Black Sea to the port of Ukraine would be regarded as vessels that might transport military materials and may become the military goal of the Russian army.Ukraine immediately counterattacked that all vessels that drove to the port of Russia or Ukraine Russia will be regarded as the target of legitimate military strike.
The announcement of Russia and Ukraine not only caught the situation of the Black Sea, but also the hope of restoration of food exports in Ukraine was shattered, and international grain supply faced greater uncertainty.Although the Moscow's fleet in the Black Sea can fully block Ukraine's merchant ships, it remains to be observed, but the "food war" launched by Putin, Russia seems to have been fully upgraded.
The situation in Heihai is in a tense impact on the harvest season of Ukrainian crops
This is not the first time that Russia has suspended the Black Sea Food Agreement.The analysis states that although the suspension of the agreement is not unexpected, the development of this latest situation has intensified the risk of conflict in the Black Sea.
The Dutch Cooperation Bank's senior analyst in London, Magdobitz, told Bloomberg: "We have expected that the Grain Agreement of the Black Sea cannot continue to be implemented, but now the situation has been upgraded ...Garment season. "
Ukraine's port in the Black Sea is an important channel for grain exports.Although Ukraine can still transport food through the inland, highways and railways, this approach is far more troublesome than transportation from Shenzhen Hong Kong, and the cost is much higher.The closure of the Black Sea Corridor may weaken the upcoming harvest.
The Russian Ministry of Defense said on Wednesday that some waters in the northwest and southeast of the Black Sea International Water have been announced as a temporary navigation dangerous area.Although Russia does not specify what actions to try to enter the port of Ukraine, if the Banqi government that is attacked is a Western country that supports Ukraine, which means that the confrontation between Russia and the Ukrainian allies will be upgraded sharply.
In addition, the war risk insurance premiums charged in the Black Sea are also rising.Therefore, without Russia's consent, shipowners may not be allowed to allow ships to enter the theater.Insurance operators revealed that after the Russian withdrawal agreement, some insurers will increase their rates significantly, while others choose to stop underwriting.It is reported that the ship's war insurance policy must be updated every seven days, and the cost is as high as thousands of dollars.
US Intelligence: The Russian Army may attack the Black Sea Running Boat
US government officials warned on Wednesday that information shows that Russia is considering civilian ships that attack the Black Sea and then push their responsibilities to the Ukrainian army.
White House National Security Council spokesman Hodg said that according to the latest intelligence, the Russian army laid more waterlines at the channel to the port of Ukraine."We think this is to find a reason for attacking the grain ship in the Black Sea and blame Ukraine."
Hodg also pointed out that Russia launched missiles and drones to launch missiles and drones in the port port of Odesa on July 18th and 19th, respectively, destroying agricultural infrastructure and 60,000 tons of grain.Essence
Ukraine also accused the Russian army of destroying the grain export infrastructure facilities in the Odessa area, but insisted that Ukrafe would not be frightened.The Kiev Government will continue to export food and is studying the options for restoring the operation of the grain corridor, including escorting ships.
Ukrainian President Zeleiski said on Wednesday: "Russian terrorists are definitely infrastructure facilities that deliberately deliberately targets the grain agreement. Every missile in Russia is not only an attack on Ukraine, but also every normally and safe in the world wants to be normal and safe.The attack of people in life. "
Putin takes responsibilities in the West to use the agreement to "political extortion"
The Black Sea Food Agreement expired on July 17. In order to ensure the continuation of the agreement, the United Nations has been guiding all parties to negotiate.However, Russian President Putin accused the West of the use of the Black Sea Running Agreement for "political extortion" and believed that the agreement had lost all of its meaning.Putin insisted that only in Russia's request was fully met, Moscow would consider returning to the agreement.
In July last year, under the mediation of the United Nations and Turkey, the grain agreement reached by Russia and Ukraine allowed the "Maritime Humanitarian Corridor" from the Black Sea to export agricultural products such as grains from three major ports in Ukraine.The United Nations also signed a memorandum of understanding with Russia at the same time, promising to help Russia's grain from hindering returning to the global market.
Data from the Cisonication Center of the Black Sea Food Agreement show that in the past year, more than 32 million tons of grain has been transported from three ports in Ukraine to 45 countries on the three continents.
But according to Russia, the implementation of this performance agreement has been "disappointing."Memorandum on eliminating the obstacles to the export of Russian food and fertilizer has not been fulfilled, and the goal of supplying grain for poverty -stricken countries such as Africa and other regions has not achieved.
The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that since July last year, the EU issued a series of sanctions on the exports of agricultural products in Russia. The United States and Britain have also taken similar measures, leading to Russia in terms of payment, insurance, logistics, and overseas assets.
The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Zaharava said on Wednesday that if the United Nations meets the requirements of Russia within three months, that is, the implementation of the memorandum of promoting Russian agricultural exports, the Russian side will return to the negotiations of the Grain Foreign Transportation Agreement of Black Sea.Essence
There are analysis that the Black Sea Food Agreement is not a legal binding agreement. If Europe and the United States are unwilling to make more concessions on sanctions on Russia, then Russia will not guarantee that the food foreign transportation agreement continues to renew the contract contract.Essence
Gutres: Continue to promote Russian and Ukraine's agricultural products to enter the international market
UN Secretary -General Gutrez Monday (17th) at the United Nations Headquarters in New York said that Russia's decision to withdraw from the initiative may cause hundreds of millions of people in the world to face the risk of hunger and have a serious blow to people in need in the world.
Gutres emphasized that the Black Sea Port Agricultural Products Foreign Transportation Agreement, as well as the memorandum of understanding of Russia's grain and fertilizer exports, is the "lifeline" of global food security.When the production and supply of grain production and supply are disturbed by factors such as conflicts, climate change, and energy prices, these agreements have helped reduce food prices by more than 23%since March last year.
Gutres said that Russia decided to terminate the implementation of the Black Sea Food Agreement, and also revoked the security guarantee for northwest of the Black Sea.Russian President Putin ignored his proposal to extend the agreement, which made him regret.Nevertheless, the United Nations will continue to promote agricultural products between Russia and Ukraine to enter the international market smoothly.
Turkish President Erdogan also stated that he will, willContinue to save the Black Sea Food Agreement, hoping to interview the agreement with Putin, he has invited Putin to visit Turkey in August.Turkey has always maintained a balance between Russia and Ughal, and Russia still depends on Turkey.Whether Turkey has the ability and after the Grain Agreement of the Black Sea is invalidated, it is willing to maintain the sea humanitarian transportation corridor in the Black Sea, which has attracted attention.
Ukrainian President Zeleiski warned that the effectiveness of the Agricultural Products Foreign Transportation Agreement of Heihai Port will be suspended and will lead to more crisis around the world."Because of this agreement, we successfully prevented the global grain market price crisis last year, and high grain prices will inevitably lead to a political crisis and immigration crisis, especially in Africa and Asian countries."
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Culba criticized that Russia used hunger as a tool for extortion."Russia will not extend an agreement to increase global food prices, and people in Asia and Africa will be affected. Russia is using hunger as a tool for extortion to pursue its own business interests."
IMF: The termination of the agreement will impact low -income countries
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warns that the termination of the Black Sea Port Agricultural Products Foreign Transportation Agreement will worsen global food security prospects, which may exacerbate grain inflation, especially in low -income countries.Africa, the Middle East, and South Asian countries have the most impact on the termination of the agreement.
Ukraine is a major country of grain and oil seeds, and was once the fifth -largest exporter of wheat in the world.Russia is also a major exporter of wheat.
The price of wheat, corn and soybeans on the global trading market has risen since the Agricultural Products Foreign Transportation Agreement in Heihai Port has risen.On the Chicago Futures Exchange, wheat prices rose by nearly 1.5%the next day after Wednesday.The prices of other agricultural products such as sugar and rapeseed are also affected.
Deng Ford, head of the East Africa region of the United Nations World Grain Program, said that due to various factors such as regional conflicts, climate, and economy, about 80 million people in East Africa are facing a serious shortage of grain.The failure of the Grain Agreement of the Black Sea will cause further deterioration in the food shortage facing in East Africa, and it is difficult to improve in a short period of time.
When Mogdisha, the capital of Somalia, when Russia had just invaded Ukraine, the price of wheat doubled, and it was not until the signing of the Agricultural Products Foreign Transportation Agreement at the Black Sea Port.Now that the agreement is broken again, the interviewed merchants predict that a bag of 50 kg of wheat will rise from $ 20 (about S $ 26.6) to nearly 30 US dollars.
A local mother Harrima, a mother who lived in the refugee camp with five children in the local war and told Reuters: "I don’t know how we survive.There are very few. "
Food shortage plus the food prices of African countries in dry African countries may rise again
In Kenya, the Black Sea Food Agreement terminates the same food shortage.Covering Somalia, Etelobia and other countries, as well as Africa in some areas of Kenya, is facing the worst drought in decades.The Kenya Ministry of Foreign Affairs often pointed out that it is now at a historical high grain price, and I am afraid that it will rise again.
The Director -General of the World Trade Organization (WTO) said that the food, feed and fertilizer trade of the Black Sea is essential for the stability of global food prices."Unfortunately, the poor and poor countries have suffered the most serious blows due to the suspension of this agreement." She called on everyone not to give up hope for restoring this agreement.
Putin's grain as a weapon on the world has a profound impact on the world
Black Sea separates Europe and Asia. There are Russia, Ukraine, Romania, Bulgaria, Turkey and Georgia. It is an important trade route for Ukraine and Russian agricultural products.The Mediterranean is connected.
The problem of Heihai Port has exceeded the field of grain and has become a political chip for Russia and Ukraine's conflict.This means that with the upgrading of the Russian and Ukraine War, food has become a weapon, which will not only have far -reaching impact on Russia and Ukraine, but also the global impact.The European Union, the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany and other Western countries, all criticized the Cremlin's decision.
The Chairman of the European Union Commission Feng Delin strongly condemned Russia's selfish actions of the Black Sea Food Agreement regardless of the efforts of the United Nations and Turkey, and promised that the European Union would continue to work hard to ensure the food security of poor countries.
U.S. Secretary of State Brosky said that Russia is raising food weapons."This is an immoral and should not happen. I hope that every country will pay close attention to this matter. Russia should be responsible for providing food to those who refuse to be urgently needed."
A spokesman for the White House National Security Council, Kobe said that the United States will continue to cooperate with other countries to maintain the export channels of Ukrainian grain.However, the United States will not consider using U.S. military assets to help protect Ukraine food transportation.
U.S. CNN (CNN) analyzed that Russia's withdrawal from the Black Sea Food Agreement could lead to a serious food shortage in Africa and rising food prices in developing countries.This can be said to be a fatal injury for the United States, because this may cause the high inflation that appeared last year.
Ukrainian grain borrowing EU output faces resistance
CNN believes that Putin tries to pass the cost to the West, in order to respond to economic sanctions on Russia from countries around the world, and speculate that Putin may determine that the food inflation crisis can help split the North Atlantic Convention Organization (NATO) countries.At that time, NATO member states may no longer be unable to rescue or support Ukraine.In addition, if some developing countries encounter a shortage of grain, the public may be dissatisfied with the government's support for Ukraine, which will cause countries that support Ukraine to face domestic pressure.
Since the outbreak of Russia and Ukraine's conflict, Ukraine has more exported a large amount of food through Eastern European countries.However, there are many logistics challenges in this route.In addition to higher costs, Ukraine Foods circulate through eastern EU, and local farmers are dissatisfied.These farmers believe that local factories will acquire Ukraine food to impact the market of their own crops.
In view of this, the EU has allowed Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Romania, and Slovakia to ban the sale of Ukrainian wheat, corn, rapeseed and sunflower seeds in Ukraine, but can allow these crops to export them to others.The ban will expire on September 15.
The Polish Minister of Agriculture Tris announced on Wednesday that the five countries of Poland, Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia have signed a joint position document, hoping to extend the import ban from the Five Kingdoms of the Four countries after September 15.Until the end of this year.They are worried that Russia's blockade of the Black Sea may put further pressure on the domestic grain market.
