U.S. President Biden officially announced on April 25 this year to participate in the 2024 presidential election.The announcement of the re -election of the campaign does not mean that Biden automatically received the nomination of the Democratic Party, but in terms of the current situation, there is no person in the Democratic Party that can challenge Biden.
After Biden announced the campaign, the New York Times gave him "splashing cold water" and pointed out that the presidential campaign in 2024 would be different from 2020.In 2020, because of the crown disease epidemic, most of the voting activities of Biden were carried out through video. In 2024, the general election will return to the fatigue campaign model for national tour speeches.
After the physical examination in February this year, the doctor announced that Biden, 80, was "suitable for performing duties."The White House also said that Biden's mind is keen and can be competent for the arduous work of the president.However, the latest public opinion survey results show that as many as 68%of interviewees believe that Biden is too old to stay in office for four years.
According to the polls conducted by the Washington Post and the Ministry of News Department of the Broadcasting Corporation (ABC News) from April 28th to May 3rd, only 32%of the respondents believed that Biden was still healthy and keen in mind.The post of President's position has fallen 19 percentage points from three years ago.
Republicans who have announced the election, Nikki Haley, a former US ambassador to the United Nations, advocated a psychological test of politicians over 75 years old.Republican opponent -former 76 -year -old US President Trump.
Michael Kazin, a professor at the Department of History of Georgedon University, said in an interview with Lianhe Zaobao that age is indeed an important factor for politicians."The impression of the age and the keen mind 'is a major resistance for the re -election of Biden. If the voters are required to change the dependency, Biden must make more public appearances, accept media access, or talk to the public." According to statistics from the New York Times, in addition to Reagan, the previous president of the United States has the least number of press conferences.In the first two years of ruling, Biden only asked the media to interview 54 times. In comparison, Trump was interviewed by the media as many as 202 times, and Obama was 275 times.
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For Biden rarely talks to media reporters, Michael Shear, a senior reporter of the New York Times, said that the reason that the Biden consultant group was "outdated" by the media interview or convening a press conference.They believe that traditional media have no influence, and Biden can better express themselves through other channels.
However, critics believe that Biden did not often attend press conferences and responded directly and quickly to respond to reporters' questions because his advisory group was worried that Biden would make major mistakes because he was old and inaccurate.The risk of increasing media access or holding a civic meeting may be greater than benefit.
Bynden often missed the White House Frequent Fire
Bynden often misunderstand is not new.In May last year, in a speech on the United States for assistance to Ukraine, he described Ukraine as Russia and Hungary.
In March last year, during the visit to Warsaw, Poland, Russian President Putin was even more described as a "butcher". He also said that "in God's portion, this person cannot continue to be in power."Bayon's manuscript said this sentence that made US officials wrong. The White House immediately came forward to "extinguish the fire", clarifying that Biden was not advocating the Russian regime.The outside world is worried that Biden's words will provoke Putin's nerves and promote the other party to make extremely irrational reactions, such as nuclear weapons.This will not only worsen the situation in Russia and Ukraine, but the world will suffer.
In addition to errors and words, Biden is also easy to be talked about by reporters.In September last year, in an interview with the "60 minutes" program broadcast on the Broadcasting Corporation of the United States (CBS), he was asked if the U.S. military would defend Taiwan. He responded: "Yes, if there is an unprecedented attack."
As soon as this statement comes out, Sino -US relations are tight again.The White House immediately "extinguished the fire" emphasized that the US policy against Taiwan has not changed.The US National Security Consultant Sarawan also reiterated that Bayeng's remarks did not change the US Chinese China policy. The United States opposed the unilateral change of the status quo of the Taiwan Strait and supported the peace and stability of the Taiwan Strait.
Public opinion believes that the above mistakes will only become more frequent with the growth of Biden.Biden's consultant may have such concerns.
Chris Coons, a member of the 2024 campaign team and a Senator of Tellahua Democratic Party, pointed out that the current president of the United States seeks re -election and traditionally has an overwhelming advantage. Biden's campaign strategy is to focus on ruling.He believes that still seeing his changes, waiting for the opponent's mistake is a better countermeasure.
Political scholar Adam Garfinkle, a political scholar at the Radalunnan International Relations Institute of Nanyang University of Science and Technology, and the Institute of Foreign Policy, the InstituteSee who his Republican opponent is.
Gentakle said in an interview with the Morning Post that, as far as the 2024 presidential election Biden will be confronted again with Trump, and Trump is only four years old than Biden.The impact is not great.
If Trump, who is 76 years old, returns to the White House, will reach 82 years old at the end of the new period and become the "second old" president in American history.
Gentakle said: "On physical and mental health, Biden is not better than Trump. Trump is also an old age and overweight.Trump is better. "
But Govech also pointed out that most Americans do not want the Presidential election in 2024 to fight against Trump.If this is the case, the voting rate will be pulled down, and this may be more beneficial to Trump because Trump has a group of fanatical supporters who will actively vote for him.
Two -old candidate campaign partner becomes focus
As Both Biden and Trump are elderly presidential candidates, the vice presidential campaign partner selected by the two has received greater attention, because the US Constitution stipulates that if the post president dies, the vice president will take over his first.Candidates.
Biden has announced that he will run for another partner with his current vice president Harris.As for Trump, if he really represents the Republican campaign president, his campaign partner will definitely not be the vice president Pence during his administration.Since the riots of the Congress two years ago, Trump and Pence have broken up, and Pence is still considering whether to fight for the Republican nomination campaign president.
Gentakle believes that Trump may choose a non -political person who can "spread the election fraud lie together" this time."It may be a much young, very famous Tucker Carlson."
The 53 -year -old Karson was the host of Fox's news ratio, and his influence could not be underestimated.Karson has a close relationship with Trump, and has been "singing and one harmony" with Trump in opposition to the prevention and control of crown diseases and claiming election fraud.
After the news of Karson and Fox, Betfair, the world's largest gaming company, has also opened a revenue recently to bet on Karlson to participate in the 2024 presidential election or partner with Trump.
Analysis believes that Biden selected Harris as a campaign in 2020, hoping that Harris could win more black and female votes for himself, but such a campaign strategy may not work.Moreover, Harris has performed mediocre in the past two years. If Trump really finds the famous Karlson to run for the election, it is estimated that Harris will be better.
Biden won the Democratic Party's high -level support
Biden is a legend in American politics.He has worked in the Senate for 36 years, has been the eight years of Vice President. He also competed the president in 1988, 2008 and 2020. He finally served as the 46th president of the United States in 2021 in the crown disease epidemic.
Biden seeks support for re -election to quickly get the support of the Democratic heavyweight.Former US President Barack Obama tweeted: "I am proud of the achievements of Bayon and his government in the past few years." Former US Secretary of State Hillary said: "Biden and Harris are defending our democracy and for usStriving for rights and ensuring that everyone has the best candidate for fair opportunities. "Bayeng's main competitor and Vermont Senator Sanders, the main preliminary election of the party's presidential election in 2020, also stated that he supports the re -election of Biden.
Biden is currently only facing two challengers in the Democratic Party.One is Marianne Williamson, an American inspirational book author, social movement and spiritual mentor, and Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a former US president Kennedy's nephew.However, in terms of real factors such as personal resumes or in -party support, it is difficult for both to pose a substantial threat to Biden.
The risk of debt defaults disturb the presidential election
In the first year after taking office, it benefited from the gradual loosening of the epidemic prevention and control measures. The US economy rebounded strongly, but it was affected by inflation and other issues. The economic performance in the United States lost a lot in 2022.This adds challenges to the road of seeking re -election.
Bynden is currently a hard bargaining with the Republican leader of Congress on raising the upper limit of federal debt.Bynden insisted that Congress had the constitutional obligation to increase the debt limit unconditionally, but the Republicans insisted on linked the debt negotiations with the comprehensive reduction of the budget.
For decades, the US government has been accumulating debts and has reached $ 31 trillion (about $ 41 trillion), which is the largest in the world.In addition to the large push of infrastructure construction, the Guanyon government has also brought high extra expenditures, making the problem of debt upper limit more urgent.
The U.S. Treasury estimates that if the debt limit is not raised, the federal government may be breach of the contract on June 1st.Biden warned that if you do not quickly take action to increase the debt limit, the US economy may fall into decline, and thousands of people will be unemployed.
This political wrestling with the leader of the Republican Party of Parliament may even impact the global economy and disrupt the US presidential election pattern in 2024.Economy is often the most concerned about voters. If the US government breaks the contract for the first time, the U.S. economy has fallen into a deep decline and the unemployment rate has soared. This "black pot" may be back.
