The enemy of the enemy is a friend, which is a portrayal of the current polarization of international relations. After the outbreak of the Russian and Ukraine War, Russia was highly sanctioned in the West and moved closer to other non -Western countries. Iran, who is discordating with the United States, has a gradual relationship with the United States, becoming the target of Russia. In the past year, the contradiction between Saudi Arabia, Iran and the United States is more acute. Whether the two sides will evolve from opposition to conflict, which is a concern for many countries.
Saudi Arabia, American Saudi Arabia to rely on the re -positioning of global order
For decades, oil has been the best "weapon" in Saudi Arabia, and it is still the case today.
In July this year, in order to alleviate the pressure of domestic oil prices, US President Biden visited Saudi Arabia to meet with the actual power of the kingdom and the crown prince Mohammed to strive to increase Saudi production, but returned empty -handed.
By the beginning of October, the oil alliance and the oil alliance+announced that the production has been significantly reduced from November, reducing the daily output by 2 million barrels, pushing the oil price, and even inconsistent with Biden.The shameful Bayeng accused Saudi on the Russian and Ukraine War to help Russia, warning Saudi Arabia to pay a price for the decision to reduce production.
Saudi Arabia later explained several times that production reduction was based on economic considerations, and promised to work hard to ensure the stability and balance of the oil market.Other members of the Oil Alliance came out to support Saudi Arabia, and they still couldn't calm down the anger of the United States.
Oil Alliance+Meeting on December 4th, maintaining the previous production reduction arrangement, there is no further reduction of production as expected by the outside world, making many countries rest assured.
Analysis pointed out that the current global energy crisis and prices have risen, bringing unexpected changes to the geographical politics of the Middle East, and Saudi Arabia has become the biggest beneficiary country.Saudi Arabia's daily excess capacity exceeds 1.5 million barrels, which can affect the oil market by regulating the output and make it re -become the "rulers in the oil market."
Oil League+Conference, the first Arab country and the Chinese summit were held in the Saudi capital of Lyah this week. Chinese officials attended the meeting.The meeting was a chance for Muhammad to show Saudi Arabia internationally, stating that Saudi Arabia is determined to locate himself in the global order of polarization and will not strode with the West.
It is generally believed that Muhammad was accused of killing the 59 -year -old Saudi journalist Kashuji, who had ordered the killing of Muhammad's new policy in 2018. It was the fuse of Meisha's relationship that has changed sharply in the future.
Saudi Arabia for alternative partners due to the contradiction between oil and beauty
However, the changes in the relationship between the relationship between Meisha have already followed, and the contradictions of the two countries have appeared many years ago.Among them, the two major factors: First, the United States has become one of the world's largest oil -producing countries. Saudi Arabia has weakened the importance of business and strategic in the United States year by year.change.Petroleum still accounts for about three -quarters of Saudi Exit.In recent years, Saudi Arabia has close economic and trade relations. China is the largest trading partner of Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia has also strengthened economic and trade with India, another big economy.Saudi Arabia has long intentionally looking for alternative partners outside the United States.
In terms of economy, Saudi Arabia must reform the economy and solve long -term fiscal deficits.Since the last time the oil price plummeted in 2014, Saudi Arabia appeared tens of billions of dollars in budget deficits each year.The more than two years of coronary disease has led many Saudi companies to be re -created and the unemployment rate has risen. The government must try to revitalize economic and manufacturing employment opportunities.
In order to get rid of the dependence on oil, Muhammad announced the "2030 Vision" and the national transformation plan as early as 2016. It is necessary to make Saudi Arabia face -to -face through economic and social reforms and become a modern economy.One of his plans was to announce the development of a new Future City (NEOM) in northern 2021 to build a zero -carbon city with a total of US $ 500 billion (about S $ 673.9 billion) and a length of 170 kilometers.
In the final analysis, Muhammad's new policy requires a lot of money as a backing, which means that Saudi Arabia has a good relationship with more economic powers.Not only Saudi Arabia, but other Persian Gulf countries also continue to make partnership diversified.
Fordrom, a senior researcher at the Atlantic Council of Washington Think Tank, said that Saudi Arabia will not rely entirely on the United States, and it has been looking for something that Washington will not provide to it.For example, Saudi Arabia wants to accelerate military modernization, but in the face of resistance, the US State Department and Congress are blocking military sales against Saudi Arabia.Therefore, Saudi Arabia tried to buy advanced fighters from Russia and China.
She said that the supply of food is becoming increasingly important today. Russia is a big food country. Saudi Arabia depends on food imports and naturally has a good relationship with Russia.
Scholars: Merrust will not break each bottom line
Is the United States and Saudi Arabia that may be evil? If this happens, how will it affect the US Saudi and the Middle East?
Dr. James Dorsey, a part -time researcher at the Rajelenan International Research Institute of Nanyang University of Technology, was interviewed by the United Zard of the United Zard that the United States and Saudi Arabia have a bottom line. They know that they need each other.The bilateral relations have friction and will not break up.
He pointed out that in the US -Saisa relations, oil is definitely an important factor. Whoever controls the oil market will occupy the upper hand.
Dr. Mariam Farida, an expert in Middle East, Maccari University, Sydney, Australia, accepted an interview with Lianhe Morning Post that there were occasional diplomatic issues in the United States and Saudi Arabia, but they had the stability and security in the Persian Gulf region.Common interests, the strong economic and strategic partnership between the two countries is unlikely to worsen.
She said that once the relationship deteriorates, the two sides will damage each other.First of all, it will affect the trade and oil exports of the two countries, and the United States may lose an important military base in Saudi Arabia.
Falida also said that the United States in Persia GulfThe most important policy goal is to maintain stability of oil prices and ensure sufficient oil to meet the needs of the United States and allies; at the same time, prevent and crack down on any hostile country to control and influence the Middle East.In addition, the Persian Gulf is the main waters of Eastern and Western shipping.Starting from the interests of the United States, it provides security guarantees for the Holmus Strait, the entire Persian Gulf region and the oil -producing countries, and also serves the United States' strategic and economic benefits in this region.
As for the future of the US Middle East policy, will the future change?Duoxi said that the United States has established close relationships with all the Middle East countries for many years, and there is no need to further attract any country.
He mentioned that Qatar's relationship with the United States in recent years has become increasingly closer. It can be said that the United States is currently the most reliable cooperative country in the Middle East outside Israel.For example, the US military's military base in Qatar is the largest base in the United States in the Middle East.In this regard, Qatar's importance to the United States is increasing.
Duoxi said: "Overall, the United States' security in the Middle East plays a very important role, and there is no other power to replace it. The United States will not withdraw from the Middle East, but it will evolve according to the situation.The key to the commitment of this area is how to deal with the expectations of countries in the Middle East. "
The United States and Iranian nuclear facilities are frequent western dense West as provocative
Iran's recent move has made the international social nerves be tense.
The UN subordinate International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed on November 22 that Iran began to produce 60 % of concentrated uranium in the capital of the Fordow nuclear facilities in the capital of 180 kilometers south of the capital.This nuclear facilities are located in deep ground, and Western countries are not easy to destroy.
Iranian Atomic Energy Agency subsequently announced on December 3 that it has begun to build a second nuclear power plant in Helzistan Province in the west, which will use 4 % concentrated uranium, which is expected to be put into production in eight years.
Although the abundance of 60 % is lower than the 90 % required for the nuclear bomb, it is much higher than the regulations of the Iranian nuclear agreement.These moves in Iran are regarded by Western countries as provocative.In 2015, Iran and the United States, Britain, France, Russia, and Germany reached a nuclear agreement to limit the abundance of Iranian uranium to 3.67 % in exchange for the international community to terminate sanctions.After the US unilateral withdrawal agreement in 2018 and resumed sanctions on Iraqi, Iran restarted the concentration of Forto in order to revenge from 2019.
At the end of June, the EU's mediation Meiyi restarted negotiations but did not progress. The negotiations were obviously dead.
IAEA issued a report in May this year stating that Iran's highly concentrated uranium inventory increased by 30 % within three months and accumulated a 60 % rich uranium inventory of 43 kg.Experts say that a nuclear bomb requires about 25 kg of concentrated uranium.Iran is fully capable of increasing concentrated uranium abundance from 60 % to 90 %, which can create nuclear bombs in the short term.
Iran has been obstructing inspectors to investigate nuclear activities in recent years, and has also demolished the camera of Iranian nuclear activities in international monitoring of Iran.
Analysis: Provide UAV to display the III Alliance against the West
Iran has also been exposed to Russia with drones to attack Ukrainian military and civilians in the Ukrainian battlefield.Iran was not covered later. Foreign Minister Abdullahiyan acknowledged that Iran did sell drones to Russia, but it said that it was before the outbreak of the war, and it was just a small number of drones.However, it is reported that Iran also agrees to provide ballistic missiles to Russia.Analysis means that this indicates that Iran and Russia have allied alliances to fight against Western plugging together.
Iran's domestic demonstration protests continued successively, and domestic and foreign trapped internal and foreign trapped it. It has long been looking for support.
Iran announced at the end of June this year that it has formally applied to join the ranks of BRICS countries led by China and Russia.China's economic strength is the strongest of the BRICS Group. Iran, who has been sanctioned for a long time, is naturally eager to help China help.
Russia has been increasingly isolated by the international community because of invasion of Ukraine and wants to win non -Western countries.Anti -American Iran is naturally the object of Russia to fight.Russian President Putin visited Tehran in mid -July this year, obviously to win Iran.
In order to block the U.S. Navy, Iran has been saying more than once in recent years to block the Strait of the Hormuz, "show" its own military power, known as the drone superpowers in the Persian Bay area.Fighter equipment.
The United States has accused Iran of sending drones to attack merchant ships in the US and Western countries and refineries in Saudi Arabia.Recently, the U.S. military discovered that Iran attacked a commercial oil tanker outside Oman on November 17.From February to July 2021, Iran and the enemy Israel launched an underwater "dark battle" and attacked each other's merchant ships. The two sides almost fought.
According to international observations, when Iran's foreign relations are tight or the regional situation is upgraded, the oil tanker attacks have also occurred.Doing so, it is to intimidate the United States and allies not to act lightly.
The New York Times commentator and senior White House specialist Sann said that some officials from the Biden government revealed that the White House National Security Conference has rarely discussed the strategy of negotiating with Iran, and more about how to destroy Iran's nuclear planProvide communication equipment to the demonstrations of Iran and interfere with Iran's weapon supply chain to Russia.
Iranian experts at the Institute of Policy Research in Washington said that Washington now believes that Iran is more dangerous than in the past.
"The U.S. government used to say that Iran's nuclear planning high cabinet, that is, once the agreement was reached, Iranian issues were put aside.Two years ago, bigger. "
Scholars: Internal and external situations are tense Iranian expected to push high conflict
Iran and the West continue to oppose the security of the Middle East and around the area?
Todoxi, a senior researcher at the Rajelenan International Research Institute of Nanyang University of Technology, told the United Zard that Iran has attacked Saudi oil facilities from time to time in the past two years. Whether it will increase the attack will be more concerned.
He said that the domestic situation in Iran is unstable and the internal and external faces are under great pressure. "Although the situation is so severe, I still do not think that Iran will take risks and keep pushing the conflict, so that the situation is out of control."
Falda, an expert at Middle East, Macquarie University at Sydney, Australia, believes that in the foreseeable future, the United States and Iran will still be hostile."But the two countries are unlikely to have a direct confrontation. Even if the tension is constantly upgrading, neither the two countries have no willingness to promote conventional wars. However, the conflict between the two countries has been upgraded to a agent war, and this situation may continue."
Farida said that when the relationship with the West became difficult, Iran and Russia regarded each other as a convenient partner.In fact, Iran has no trust in Russia and the West, and Iranian decision -makers have long been regarded as a lonely strategic participant.
Since Iran has the ability to support nuclear, can it give up negotiation and go to nuclear weapons, and confront the United States?
Doroxi believes that Iran should not choose nuclear martial arts, or confront the United StatesExtreme strategy because it does not want to provoke other countries for no reason.
Domoxi said that Iran's long -lasting good relationship with China and Russia shows that Iran is still trying to improve its situation."Basically, Iran and the United States will maintain the status quo, and there should be no basic changes. Not to mention, the US -Iraq relations have tightly pine, and they have not evolved to the point where they have been tense."
Farida said that rising global energy costs have made Iran more valuable to Europe and Russia.Tehran officials have publicly stated that they can re -introduce Iranian oil into the international market, reduce European energy prices in exchange for the United States to cancel some sanctions against Iran."Since there is such a possibility, it means that Iran still has room for virginity."
