U.S. officials said that North Korean leader Kim Jong -un may adopt some form of fatal military operations in South Korea after turning to a public hostile policy.

Official analysis believes that Kim Jong -un's recent tough route is part of the provocative model, but his statement is more aggressive than previous claims and should be taken seriously.

Although these officials also said that they believe that the Korean Peninsula has no urgent risk of a comprehensive war, but Kim Jong -un may use a way that he thinks he can avoid the rapid upgrade of the situation.

They took the event of the Korean islands in 2010 as an example.At that time, the two sides attacked each other with gunfire. It was reported that the soldiers of both sides and the Korean civilians died, but the army of the two sides soon stopped crossing the fire.

At a Asian Association Forum held on Thursday, Jonathan Fernell, deputy national security adviser to the White House, said North Korea "choose to continue a very unparalleled route."

Through a series of actions of this month, Kim Jong -un's aggressive posture is obvious.The South Korean military said on Wednesday, North Korea launched several cruise missiles from the west coast to the sea.The Kim Jong -un government announced on January 14 that the country tested a new type of solid fuel medium -range missile equipped with hypersonic warheads.On January 5, his army fired hundreds of artillery shells to the waters near the South Korean islands, forcing some residents to avoid.

At the same time, the official media of North Korea announced on January 16 that Kim Jong -un has decided to formally abandon the long -term official goal with South Korea.Kim Jong -un has issued relevant signals a few months ago, and said in a speech a few days ago that it must be deleted from the Constitution's unified reconciliation statement from the Republic of Korea.

"I see in the constitution that it can also be reflected that during the outbreak of the Korean Peninsula, it was completely occupied, settled, and recovered the issue of the Republic of Korea and included it into the field of the Republic," Kim Jong -un said.

He has repeatedly condemned President Bayeng, South Korean President Yin Xiyue, and Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Wenxiong reached in August.

Kim Jong -un's policy transformation and missile launch have attracted the attention of U.S. officials responsible for monitoring North Korea. North Korea has a nuclear weapon plan and has been severely sanctioned by the United Nations.Kim Jong -un's actions also temporarily closed the door to contact with US diplomacy. Since the failed face -to -face talks with former President Trump in 2019, he has avoided contact with the United States.

U.S. officials said the North Korean leader may become more bold because of the increasingly close relationship with Russia.

Researcher Jean Lee, a researcher at the US Eastern and Western Center in Honolulu, said: "(North Korea) a wider strategy is to destroy stability and make anxiety, and these statements and policy changes are part of them." She also said that she believes that Kim Jong -un might mayIt will take military operations in the Yellow Sea (sometimes known as the West Sea), because there are South Korea's islands -including the island that Kim Jong -un's father was sheltered in 2010 -and North Korea controversial disputes on the sea border there.

Two North Korean experts proposed in an article this month that the situation in the Korean Peninsula was "more dangerous than at any time since June 1950". At that time, Kim Jong -un's grandfather decided to invade South Korea.

U.S. government analysts and policy makers have read this article.The author of the article wrote that, according to their interpretation of the recent statement, Kim Jong -un "made a strategic decision to start war."

But according to US officials interviewed by this report, so far, U.S. agencies have not found that North Korea is preparing for the battle or a major war.These officials discussed intelligence and foreign affairs with reporters under anonymous.

One of the officials said that North Korea transported a large number of old -fashioned artillery shells and a small number of more modern ballistic missiles for the Ukrainian war to Russia. This decision showed that Kim Jong -un did not prepare for long -term conflicts with South Korea.The official said that a leader planned to adopt major military operations should accumulate missiles and shells.

If the missiles and shells are launched in South Korea, or invasion of land, it almost definitely means fighting with the United States.The United States fought for South Korea in the Korean War. The war never ended, but it stopped after signing a suspension agreement in 1953.Nearly 30,000 U.S. military is currently stationed in South Korea.

U.S. officials said that Kim Jong -un may think he can control any upgrade.When North Korea was shelling Yanping Island in 2010, the South Korean military made revenge, but the two sides soon ended the fire.

Earlier, a Korean warship sank on the west coast of the country, causing 46 crew members to die; a few months later, international experts investigated conclusions that it was hit by a torpedo launched by a Korean submarine.North Korea denied any role in the incident.South Korea imposed sanctions on North Korea, but did not implement any military blows.In small -scale maritime conflicts in 1999 and 2002, both North Korea and South Korea carefully maintained moderate contact to avoid upgrading to comprehensive war.

North Korea can use conventional weapons to destroy South Korea's cities and kill the US military on the peninsula.South Korea and the United States have the ability to quickly destroy the North Korean capital Pyongyang and military bases across the country.

Stanford University scientist Sigferid Heke said that North Korea has sufficient fission materials, mainly highly concentrated uranium, which can make about 50 to 60 nuclear warheads.Heck recently participated in writing the article about Kim Jong -un entering the state of preparation.

Another author and former US North Korean issue intelligence analyst Robert Kalin said in an interview that according to North Korea ’s actions and official statements since 2021, they concluded that Kim Jong -un has given up for decades.Policies that realize the normalization of relations in the United States.

"We were surprised to see the situation so amazing," Kalin said.

He said that he believed that North Korea's military planners would tend to launch a sudden attack, so as to "make Americans caught up and caught up to everyone."When North Korea assaulted South Korea in 1950, the commanders did this.

The North Korean government seems to pay special attention to the withdrawal of the U.S. military in August 2021 from Afghanistan.North Korean officials "described it as the global retreat of the United States," said Kalin.

Daniel Russerl, vice chairman of the Asian Association and a senior official of Asian affairs in the U.S. State Department, said that Kim Jong -un seemed to intend to launch a crackdown far exceeding the 2010 shelling.He said, "We should prepare for Kim Jong -un's amazing action."

Biden, Secretary of State Brills, and other American officials with other American officials tried to persuade North Korea to stop missile tests. In recent years, such missile tests have increased.U.S. officials said that although China helps North Korea evade sanctions, it does not want armed conflicts in the region.

However, China's influence on North Korea is limited, and as Kim Jong -un took action to establish a closer relationship with Russian President Putin, this influence may be weakening.

Wang Huiyao, director of the global think tank located in Beijing's research institutions, said that the overall situation is "very dangerous" and said that "the relevant parties should negotiate together."

Two U.S. officials said that Kim Jong -un seemed to strengthen his military and diplomatic status. If he risked his status and the risk of power, it would be surprising.

They said that the North Korean army improved the ballistic missile project through frequent test firing, and Kim Jong -un and Putin seemed to be establishing a personal relationship, starting from the meeting between the two sides in the Far East of Russia in September.North Korean official media reported that Putin said he planned to visit North Korea soon.

From 20Starting from 21 years, the Bayeng government has been trying to persuade North Korea to carry out diplomatic contact.On January 19, the U.S. State Department stated in a statement that the United States is still "seeking a dialogue with North Korea" when "no prerequisite conditions and no hostility".

Danaka said that in the diplomatic diplomacy in 2019, Kim Jong -un felt the betrayal and humiliation of Trump.He also said that North Korea knew that the United States' statement about not setting up the conditional dialogue was "old -fashioned", which did not mean that there were any potential changes in the US policy.The US policy is based on sanctions, and the purpose is to allow Pyongyang to abandon the nuclear weapon plan.

"If they have decided, do not believe that Americans will do anything useful at any time," Kalin said, "Why do they respond positively?"

Keith Bradsher has contributed to this article since Beijing and Choe Sang-Hun.

Edward Wong is a diplomatic reporter who has worked in the Times for more than 24 years and has been in New York, Baghdad, Beijing and Washington.He was a team member who reported the list of candidates for the Pulitzer prize for the Iraq war.Click to view more information about him.

Julian E. Barnes is a national security journalist who stays in Washington and reports information about intelligence agencies.Before joining the Times in 2018, he reported on security related issues for Wall Street Journal.Click to view more information about him.

Translation: ziyu qing, Jin Qijiao