image source, KCNA
Experts say that Kim Jong -un's new wording should not be ignored.
North Korean experts have always been cautious, and they try to avoid creating panic.But recently, the two experts set off a wave in this circle.
Last week, the two well -known analysts cast a "bomb".They believe that the leader of this isolated country is preparing for the war.
They said that Kim Jong -un has abandoned the basic goal of reconciled with South Korea and reunited.Instead, he described North and South as two independent countries that fought against each other.
"We think, as his grandfather made in 1950, Kim Jong -un has made strategic decisions of war." Former Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) analyst Robert L.Carlin and nuclear scientist Siegfried S. Hecker, a nuclear scientist who had visited North Korea many times, wrote an article published in the professional website "38 degrees north latitude" (38 North).
This view rang the alarm in Washington and Seoul, and caused a large -scale debate in the North Korean observation circle.
However, BBC interviewed seven experts in Asia, Europe and North America, and they none of them supported this view.
"Putting the entire regime in the risk of a potentially catastrophic conflict, this is not in line with the style of the North Korean people. It turns out that they are ruthless Machiavi."(Crisis Group) North Korean problem observer, Christopher Green, said.
He and others pointed out that North Korea often puts forward a post -piercing posture to promote the western powers to sit down for dialogue; there are also political pressure in North Korea.
But they agreed that Kim Jong -un was might be ignored, and his regime became more dangerous.
Although most people think that war is still unlikely, some people are worried that a more limited attack is indeed possible.
What triggered all this?
Image source, KCNA
Kim Jong -un opened a new route at the Supreme People's Conference on January 15.
Paying close attention to North Korean leader Kim Jong -un has become accustomed to his nuclear threat, but some people say that the latest information nature from Pyongyang is different.
He said on the eve of the New Year that "the Korean Peninsula may erupt at any time.Six days later, the North Korean army fired a shell on the other side of the direction of the North Korean army.
Since the beginning of January, North Korea has also claimed that it has fired a new type of solid fuel missile and an underwater attack drone that can carry nuclear weapons.
In the two years before, North Korea blatantly violated UN sanctions and carried out missile launch and weapon development almost every month.
However, what is really stunning is that he officially announced the abandonment of unified goals last week.
Since the founding of the People's Republic of China, unification with South Korea has always been a key part of the official ideology of North Korea -although it is becoming increasingly unrealistic.
Kim Jong -un will now completely destroy this heritage.In addition to closing diplomatic channels and cross -border broadcasting, he also announced that he would demolish the "Memorial Tower of the Three Charter of the Motherland" (unified door) on the outskirts of Pyongyang.
This arch was built in 2001. It is composed of two women who stretched out their hands in traditional Korean clothing to commemorate his father and grandfather's efforts to achieve unification.
Kim Jong -un said he plans to destroy this unified symbol to express his aversion to South Korea.
The "Planet Labs" (Planet Labs) posted a satellite picture released on Tuesday shows that this arch seems to have been destroyed, although the official has not confirmed this.
Kim Il Sung launched a war in 1950, but it was also the idea that North Koreans would have to reunite with the southern relatives one day.
But his grandson is now choosing to define the Korean people as a completely different nation -maybe to prove the rationality of using them as the military goal.
Is it possible to implement a limited blow?
Dr. Kalin and Heck are analysts for prediction of war. They explained all of these and Kim Jong -un has decided to fight.
But most analysts do not agree with this view.Seong-Hyon Lee, the George Hw Bush Foundation Foundation (George HW Bush Foundation), pointed out that North Korea will reopen to foreign tourists next month, and the country also sells its own cannonballs for war-- If North Korea is preparing to enter the battlefield, it is unable to afford it.
However, the ultimate deterrent factor is that if North Korea launch an attack, the US and South Korea's army will be much more advanced.
Ward of National University said: "A comprehensive war may kill many Koreans, but this will be the end of Kim Jong -un and his regime."
On the contrary, he warned others that the conditions for launching small -scale operations are forming.
Ankit Panda, an analyst of the Carnegie International Peace Foundation, said: "Overall, I am more worried about a limited attack on South Korea ... This attack will be used as South Korean territory or military.Power is the goal, but the scope is limited. "
The form of attacks may even be a disputed island on the shelling or trying to occupy the western part of the Korean Peninsula.
In 2010, North Korea attacked Yanping Island, causing four Korean soldiers to die, which angered South Korea.
Analysts believe that North Korea may initiate similar provocations again to test the bottom line of South Korea and at the same time anger South Korean President Yin Xiyue.Yin Xiyue is a tough eagle leader who has vowed to deal with North Korea's attack with a "more severe" punishment.
Panda said, "North Korea may expect that Seoul will launch an incompetent retaliatory attack", which may lead to a wider range of war upgrades.
The strategy of getting chips
Others believe that concerns about war should also be considered in Kim Jong Un's action mode.
"Looking at the history of North Korea, when it wants to negotiate, it often uses provocation to attract the attention of other countries." Li Chengxian said.
The North Korean regime continues to suffer economic sanctions. In 2024, it is the year of its enemy election -the United States will hold the presidential election, and South Korea will conduct parliamentary elections.
"This provides a good opportunity for Kim Jong -un," Dr. Li explained.
The current U.S. government under the leadership of Joe Biden is busy with the issue of Ukraine and Gaza, to the DPRKFresh attention, and Pyongyang usually has the most contact with the Republican government.
Donald Trump has a well -known "brotherhood" before the nuclearization negotiations in 2019 -North Korean leaders may be waiting for the former US president to return to the White House, thenHe may weaken the alliance with South Korea and have an open attitude towards the dialogue again.
Analysts believe that the closer friendship between North Korea and Russia and the economic support that China has continued to provide in the past year may also promote the boldness of Pyongyang.North Korea has been helped by Russia's technical help to achieve the long -term goal of launching spy satellites, and officials of the two countries have also held many high -profile meetings, including last year's leaders summit.
In November last year, Kim Jong -un visited Russia's main space facilities, and Pyongyang was able to launch satellites.
"What we see is largely the result of North Korea's confidence in its own ability and geopolitical status, because of the support of Russia, followed by China," Panda said.
Domestic goals
Some people say that Kim Jong -un's actions are to stabilize his regime.
"This seems to be an ideological adjustment for the survival of the regime," said Leif-Easley, a professor at Ewha University."Compared with South Korea, North Koreans are increasingly aware of the failure of their communist countries."
He believes that this policy focusing on the definition of enemies aims to provide reasons for Kim Jong -un's missile expenditure in the current difficult period.Earlier reports said that famine occurred across North Korea.
Ward pointed out that it is easier for South Korea to be used as an enemy to solve the problem of North Korea's "core cognitive disorders".
"In the past, it was an evil country that could not be destroyed, and it should be a unified object. Its cultural decay to be irreparable, and it should not be accepted in any case, but its people need to from"" Ward said "" "" "" said.
"Now, this country and its culture can be beaten on the evil label, which proves that it is justified to continue to suppress Korean culture." He said.
BBC released a rare film last week, showing that two Korean teenagers were sentenced to 12 years of labor reform for watching Korean dramas.
The non -governmental organization "Liberty in North Korea", who helped North Korea's refugees, said: "He does not actually want a war -this is a huge gambling, this is a huge gambling,"He will find nothing and only lose everything. "
He said that North Korea's threat aims to consolidate its new North -South policy, and the ultimate goal is to strengthen its power in China.
Analysts said that it is important to prepare for the worst situation in South Korea, the United States and allies, but North Korea's internal situation and wider geopolitics are also worthy of in -depth research.
Dr. Li believes that in the final analysis, the best way to understand North Korean leaders' ideas is to contact him.
"The international community does not consider the United States to surrender to Kim Jong -un's threat. This is considered a necessary means to achieve the goal." He said.
"If necessary, consider meeting with the leaders of the enemy country to reduce misjudgment and prevent war."
Kelly NG participated in the report.
