Scholars: The first meeting of China and the United States reached a minimum understan

China and the United States have reached a minimum mutual understanding after the head of state. Bonnie Glaser, director of the Asian Project Director of the Marshall Foundation in the United States, pointed out that this state may be maintained for a while, but this is just a tactic, two, two, two, twoNational leaders have not obtained strategic mutual understanding.

Ge Laiyi made the above -mentioned judgment on the online forum held at the Hong Kong Globalization Center on Friday (November 17).After the forum focused on the Sino -US dollar San Francisco meeting, the future trend of Sino -US relations.

U.S. President Biden and Chinese official local time on Wednesday (November 15) held a meeting in San Francisco, announcing that it would fully restore the military communication mechanism of the two countries and cooperate in combating Fantne and establishing artificial intelligence dialogue.

Ge Laiyi research and judge that Sino -US relations are currently in a good state. "This is the best state that the two countries can be in many differences."

She pointed out that officials between China and the United States have worked very hard to promote the results in the meeting in advance, which is reflected in the overlapping expressions in their respective statements after the two parties. These expressions are discussed by both parties.For example, Ge Laiyi said that the two parties mentioned that they would take responsibilities to control the competitive factors in bilateral relations, "this sentence is very important for the United States."

Ge Laiyi hopes that the meeting will set up "Put A Firm Floor" for Sino -US relations, so that the relationship between the two countries will not further decline.However, she also emphasized that it is impossible to eliminate the unpredictable situation of the ever -like balloon incident, and the two countries may also face severe challenges due to the upcoming Taiwan elections.

"We must have the mechanism of controlling such incidents, and the political determination to use these mechanisms, including ensuring that military officials and cultural leaders of the two countries maintain communication when the crisis appears."

Ge Laiyi also said: "China and the United States have reached at least the minimum mutual understanding after the head of state. This state may be maintained for a while, but in the end this is just a tactic.Obtaining strategic mutual understanding ... There are so many differences between China and the United States, these differences will only increase, and there are global competition between the two countries. "

Professor Jia Qingguo at the School of International Relations of Peking University, Thomas Parker, former official of the US Department of Defense and the former officials of the Intelligence Department, and Zhu Feng, Executive Dean of the School of International Relations of Nanjing University, also participated in the forum.

Jia Qingguo believes that in terms of low expectations before the meeting, the results of the San Francisco meeting are "beyond success"; but this does not mean that the trend of the relationship between the relationship between the two countries has stopped completely.

He said: "Is this a historical turning point, or is it just a breathing mouth that deteriorates in the next round? This is a question we must think carefully."

The US Presidential Election and the Taiwan election that will be held next year will add uncertainty to Sino -US relations. Zhu Feng pointed out that China and the United States need to create a new and friendly atmosphere, but the problem is that the two parties have asymmetricity to the head of the head of state meeting.Looking forward to; Chinese leaders have repeatedly emphasized that the United States has to make choices on the issue of opponents or partners in China, and shows that the two countries should not be opponents, but the United States is expected to not accept the definition of China.

After the Sino -US dollar held an offline meeting in Bali, Indonesia last November last year, the relationship between the two countries fell into a trough in a balloon incident in less than three months.

Jia Qingguo pointed out how to learn from the balloon incident that the two parties had no effective communication when dealing with the incident. This part was because the two sides had strong trust in each other;Help.

He said that the two sides should communicate first, don't conclude too early."Whether China and the United States can do this have to be seen again. If the United States is governed by the Republican Party, it may repeat the same mistakes, and the situation may even be worse."

Ge Laiyi believes that both China and the United States have learned some lessons from the balloon incident."The most important thing is that we have put down this crisis. The two countries have not mentioned the balloon incident at the head of state, and officials of both parties stop talking about this topic. We should also look forward."

Analysis: Is the mainland more cautious about the martial arts of Taiwan

The weak economy of mainland China, the problem of corruption of the high -level army, and the performance of Russia in the Ukrainian war will all make Chinese officials more cautious when deciding whether to move Taiwan.It will move against Taiwan.

Bonnie Glaser, the director of the Asian Project of the Marshall Foundation in the United States and Germany, revealed at an online forum held at the Hong Kong Globalization Center on Friday (November 17) that senior US officials held a background for reporters after a meeting meeting.Broken winds, share the contents of the meeting including Taiwan.According to Ge Laiyi's understanding, Chinese officials said that there was no plan to move Taiwan; he also stated that at some time, the goal of the mainland was unity, and the issue of Taiwan must be resolved.

Ge Laiyi interpreted that Chinese officials show that he has a red line. He does not want to move martial arts, but may be placed in a situation that must be martial arts.

The statement issued by China after the first meeting of China and the United States emphasized that Taiwan's issue is always the most important and sensitive issue in Sino -US relations.

Ge Laiyi said that the weak economy of the mainland, the problem of corruption of the high -level military, the lack of confidence in the military's officials, and the performance of Russia in the Ukrainian war have made Xi more cautious when deciding whether to move Taiwan.

She said: "Even before these factors emerge, Chinese officials are likely to understand the risks and potential costs of martial arts in Taiwan, but now they are greater certain.If you cross the red line of the mainland and force the Chinese official to the corner, I believe he will order martial arts. "

Ge Laiyi also pointed out that it is not just Taiwan's issue that may be conflicted with China and the United States, but there is also risks in the situation in the South China Sea.

She disclosed that the US President Biden reminded Chinese officials during the meeting with the US dollar that the United States and the Philippines signed a joint defense treaty.Ge Laiyi emphasized the importance of China and the United States in crisis and the importance of learning from past experience.

She said, "I think both countries have learned from the balloon incident, which makes me a little confidence. We will not deal with similar events in the same way. We may make other mistakeThe real thing is very important for the two countries to truly find differences in control and avoid conflicts. "