In more than three months, nearly 2005 million voters in Indonesia will choose the next president.The current President Zoko has been in charge for two sessions, and has reached the term of office stipulated in the Constitution and cannot be run again.The new President of Indonesia will be born between the current Minister of Defense Plaboor, the former governor of Central Java Province Gandhar, and the former head of Jakarta Special Administrative Region Anis.However, various signs show that Zoko has continued to pave the way for his influence after his departure.His eldest son, Giblan, became Plaboor's campaign partner through controversial ways, and even more public opinion on the perception of Zoko's political dynasty.
The "Political Dynasty" will become the next Presidential election of Indonesia, and all parties will focus on the front of offense and defense. Gibbran as the deputy of Plaboor Although some groups were dissatisfied, Zoko still enjoyedHigh prestige, criticism of his political Wang Chao may not have a great impact on the election of Plaboor and Giblan.
October 16th from the Indonesian Constitution Court -the first three days before the presidential election candidate registration procedure -ruled that those under the age of 40 should be qualified for the qualifications of the vice presidential vice presidential election.The gaze locks Giblan.The court's judgment cleaned the obstacles to the 36 -year -old Sulor City Mayor.
Without a week, Plaboor and his "Indonesian Ahead of the League" announced that Giblanland was announced as the deputy of Plaboor, confirming the rumors of the outside world.
NOory Okthariza, a researcher at the Indonesian Strategy and International Research Center, said in an interview with Lianhe Morning Post that the political dynasty would become one of the important issues of the next presidential election campaign.Gilblan's votes.
"The supporters of Anis and Gander will use this subject to extract interest, and Prabovo and Giblan will have difficulty in their positions."
As the chief judge of the Constitutional Court, Anwar, was Zoko's brother -in -law and the uncle of Giblan, the local media and rights protection organizations believed that the Constitutional Court's ruling was suspected of a skirt.The court set up an investigation in accordance with the request of some people, and whether the chairman of the Moral Council was neutral.
Liu Minli, a senior researcher and coordinator of the Indonesian Research Project of Yusov Isaf Issa East South Asian Research Institute in Singapore, said that in terms of Indonesia's democratic process, the style and democratic retrogression of the skirt and democracy behind the qualifications behind the qualifications of the election make people astounding.Essence
"People who follow the current situation should see clearly, compared to any former president, Zoko has a better love for power. His goal is to place the people of the Indonesian political system at the highest level."
"However, Zoko's supporters will not be tall, and they are likely to turn their loyalty and support to Giblan or Prabowo."
Although Zoko stated that "supporting all candidates", Gyblan joined the Plaboor camp and was regarded as a tendency to support Plaboor instead of the candidate recommended by the Democratic Party he belonged toGandchar.
Zoko's approach and Gyblan obtained qualifications, causing a certain degree of split among supporters of Zako.On October 21, a representative of the supporters group of Zoko took off the clothes that supported Zoko's words at the event and changed the group name to support Gandchar.The representative said at the time that I was sorry for taking off their favorite clothes, but "we are disappointed and we are disappointed with Zoko."
Survey: More than 60 % of the people believe that the family politics should be restricted by rules
A survey conducted by the Indonesian media compass (Kompas) from October 16th to 18th shows that 63.7 % of Indonesian people believe that regulations should be set up to restrict family politics;Agree.
Leonard C. Sebastian, a coordinator of the Indonesian project coordinator of Nanyang Institute of Technology, said that a considerable part of the Indonesian people were dissatisfied with the national and local family political phenomena.
Sebastian does not think that family political issues can resonate too much.He said that Zoko's polls are still quite high, so to to what extent Gambar and Anis can use family political issues to support support, it remains to be observed.
"Zoko is still a popular president. If anyone wants to use the political dynasty's topic to improve his support, you have to weigh them to ensure that they will not cause voters to rebound because they criticize the president." Edbert Gani, another researcher at the Indonesian Strategy and International Research Center, pointed out that for the Democratic Party of Gandhar's struggle, family politics may be a double -edged sword, because there are also many family politics within the party.Elements, and have not been stopped as early as Zoko's son and son -in -law in politics.
or no one has a voting rate for more than half an election to enter the second round.
The leader of the Democratic Party and former President Meijiadi was considered to vigorously support her daughter Pu'an in politics.Indonesian politics has rumored that Pu'an may run for president in the future, and she is currently the speaker of Congress.Gyblan was the mayor of Solo in 2021. He is now running for the vice president and embarks on the road of justice that is almost the same as his father.Zoko's son -in -law Bobby is the mayor of Mianlan City, and the young son Kasan is currently the leader of the Indonesian unity party.
In theIn February election, if no votes in the three teams have more than 50 % of the votes, the second round of elections will be held in June, and the first round of the two groups of candidates will be confronted by the first round of votes.From the current situation, the possibility of the second round of elections is quite high.
In the latest polls, Plabovo and Giblan led the lead with 35.9 % support. Gandhar and his partner Ma Ford followed by 26.1 %, and the combination of Anis and Mu Haimin won 19.6 %.Essence
Sebastian said that the second round of elections is likely to be a confrontation between Plabowo and Gandhar.At present, it is impossible to see which party will fall to it, and it depends on how much the party factions in the Anis camp are accepted by Prabovo or Gandchar.
The support of conservative Muslim voters is currently scattered between Plabovo and Anis.Made Supriatma, a visiting researcher at the Indonesian Research Project of Yusov Isa, said that the Plabovo team is very sure that if Anis was eliminated in the first round, his supporters would support PlasseeBowo.
"Because of the 2014 and 2019 elections, the Plabovo's camp includes conservative Messenger, which is now supporting Anis. They will not support Gandhar."
Made pointed out that if Gambar was eliminated in the first round, his supporters had no other choices and could only vote to Plaboor.
Observer generally believes that Anis is unlikely to catch up in polls.Liao Jianyu, a senior visiting researcher at the Erv Isa Eastern South Asian Research Institute, said that unless Plabovo is seriously ill or some reasonUnable to run, supporting Plaboor's Muslim voters to support Anis, he may be able to turn salted fish.
If you break with the United States and the United States, you will become a lame president in advance
Although he did not tear his face publicly, the Presidential Election has become a contest between Siko and the Democratic Party leader of Zako and his belonging to the Democratic Party leader.
Ruoprabovo Giblan defeat will seriously weaken Zoko's influence
The tension between the two is well known. Recently, the Indonesian media has recently described the two sides to do their best to win the two sides to win the "PERANG Bharatayudha"This presidential election campaign.
Sebastian's interpretation, Zokle pushed the eldest son Giblan as the deputy candidate of Plaboor, indicating that Zoko wanted to continue his influence after the selection.If Plabovo and Giblan are defeated, it will seriously weaken his influence in Indonesia's politics.
Sebastian pointed out that Zoko was worried that if Gambar, supported by the Democratic Party, would be controlled by the United States and Canada, and Zoko did not want the power sharing situation he had appeared during his tenure to reproduce.
"Zoko has no influence in the Democratic Party in the struggle, so it cannot change the direction of Indonesia after 2024. Therefore, Zoko is willing to support Plabovo. Plabovo not only promised to continue the policy of the Zoko government, there is a DjibuParticipating in government affairs can also ensure the continuation of Zoko's political achievements. "
Liao Jianyu said that if Micharvotity broke up with Zako at this time and expelled the party membership of Zako, Gambar may make Gandhar more isolated in the situation.
"What will happen in the future? If the two sides feel that there are no common interests, the United States and Canadi may break with Zoko."
Albert reminded that there will be fierce competition in the presidential election, and the public's criticism of Gilblan's qualifications for candidates has also floated on the table, so Zoko must act with caution.
"If the accusations of the election are true, Zoko may weaken the stable situation that he has maintained so far, endangers the term of the remaining year, and may become a lame president faster than expected."
What candidates are there in the next election?
Prabowo Subianto
Age: 72 years old
Political positions: current Minister of Defense
Political Party: GERINDRA
Support rate: 37 %
Vice -handed: Grandland, the current mayor of Solo City
Analysis of election:
Plabowo strives to shape the image of Zoko's heir to himself.After the last two presidential elections lost to Zoko, he now hopes that with the help of Zoko's high popularity to fight for support for himself, in order to have two large ticket warehouses in Central Java and East Java, the Democratic Party and GandharDown.Plabovo's choice of Zako's eldest son Giblan as his partner is to release the signal that he will continue the Zoko policy, and he also hopes to win the support of young voters through Giblan.
Among the three presidential candidates, Plabovo has the most experience in international stage and national decision -making affairs.However, he is the biggest, his deputy is the youngest and his qualifications are the least. He can't help worrying about whether Plaboopo is elected and has a healthy red light.
Ganjar Praanowo
Age: 55 years old
Political position: former governor of Central Java
Political Party: Fighting Pats Democrats (PDI-P)
Support rate: 34.8 %
Deputy Hand: The current Minister of Politics, Law and Security Mahfud MD
Analysis of election:
Gandhar showed affinity and charm during the governor of Central Java.In the coming election campaign, he adopted a line similar to Plaboor, that is, imitating Zoko's strategy in the last two elections, and strived for the support of voters in Central Java and East Java, as well as ethnic minorities.The Democratic Party he belongs is the largest party of Congress. He believes that he can provide him with a support for him and let him show his personal charm and argument.
Gandchar chose Ma Ford as a deputy, intending to attract the support of traditional Muslim voters.However, Maford did not have a solid foundation at the Islamic Missionary Federation at the maximum Muslim Organization, and it was difficult to attract Muslim votes.In addition, Gambar is also regarded as being subject to the party leader, Maga, and her party, and cannot fulfill the president's duties independently.
Anies Baswedan
Age: 54 years old
Political positions: Former Chief of Jakarta Special Economic Zone
Party: No party, but it is recommended by the National Democratic Party (NASDEM)
Support rate: 22 %
A (PKB) Chairman Muhaimin Iskandar
Analysis of election:
Among the three candidates, Anis is most likely to put forward different opinions in policies, so he is most appealing to voters who want to see changes.Anis is also welcomed more than two other candidates.Choosing Mu Haimin, Chairman of the National Revitalization Party, will help to some extent support the support of members of the Islamic Missionary Federation who will attract a gentle route to a certain extent.
However, Anis's support rate in polls with otherThe famous candidate has a distance, and many people, especially the 12%of the ethnic minorities, still have reservations for him because of his tough conservative stand and remarks in the 2017 Jakarta Special Administrative Region's election.Can Anis catch up next? It depends on whether he can attract as much as possible Ilian voters, and make minority groups believe that he will not harm their rights and interests.
(Source of poll data: Indonesia's Politik Indonesia), surveyed from October 16th to 20th, 2023)
Which topics of the next election have attracted attention?
① Anti -corruption
Although the Corruption Commission has increased greed in recent years, Indonesia's transparency index has shown a downward trend.In the past six months, two cabinet ministers and several officials faced the allegations of corruption, and the chairman of the Corruption Commission was also summoned for suspected corruption and extortion.Which candidate can eliminate corruption is the consideration of voters.
② employment
The next election, one -third of young voters under the age of 30.A survey of college students show that they generally pay attention to employment and hope that presidential candidates can pay attention to this issue.Other topics that young voters pay attention to include freedom of speech, climate change, and digital adaptability.
③ Political appeal of Muslims
Conservative Messenger also tends to support candidates who can further develop Indonesian religious dimensions and legislation to promote religious expressions.Although Anis is the most distinctive candidate in religious beliefs, it lags behind in polls. If the first round is eliminated, Muslim voters must choose between two other candidates.
④The minorities follow candidates' past records
Chinese, Christians and other ethnic minorities account for about 12 %.Individual groups have been accused of participating in the Anti -Radible religious position of the Anti -religious position in the May 1998 demonstration of the demonstration of the Act in the May 1998 demonstration.Gandchar.
Indonesian Presidential Election: From nomination to working
2023
October 19th to 25th: Potential candidates register for election
November 13: The Election Commission announced the qualifications for election
November 28: Starting the campaign
2024
February 14: National Election
June 26: If there were no candidates for more than 50 % votes in February elections, the two candidates who got the most votes confronted
October: New President's Oathing
