As the Arab Spring in 2011, the large -scale uprising of autocratic leaders does not always succeed, and the failure revolution may lead to more oppression and political turmoil.
In recent weeks, the Bangladesh government has targeted violence on students who have to obtain good government jobs in the unemployment crisis.In order to curb protests, all educational institutions are officially closed, strictly implemented, and cut off the Internet access.Thousands of police and quasi -military personnel patrolled on the streets, and more than 170 people were killed.
As one of Asia's most population and the most promising emerging economy, Bangladesh has made significant improvements in development and political stability in more than half a century after independence, but this turbulent situation is currently there are also turbulent situations.The reason.Bangladesh's youth uprising with the meaning of Spring in Arabia shows that corruption, skirt relationships and inequality are often accompanied by the growth of GDP (GDP). Under the increasingly autocratic regime governance, this phenomenon is particularly prominent.
Since taking office in 2009, Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's Awami League has basically failed to fulfill his commitment to create employment.Although in the past 20 years, Bangladesh's public sector team has expanded, and the salaries and benefits of civil servants have steadily improved, but the channels for obtaining these tasks have now become a political issue.As long as the government provides employment and maintains low living expenses, the implicit contract for young people's obedience has been broken.
Bangladesh must absorb millions of unemployed and lack of employment into the labor market.At present, more than one -third of college graduates are still unemployed a year or two after graduation.To make matters worse, about 40%of Bangladesh (two times the global average) are neither at school nor participating in employment or training.Unfortunately, employment in the private sector has continued to stagnate, and the growth rate of wages in the entire economy has slowed down, which has also promoted the demand for public service positions with rich income.
The real problem lies in the government's employment quota system.The system was launched in 1972 and has gone through many revisions.In 1997, at the time of the first term of office, the Hasana government began to retain their children's children of the 1971 Independence War Fighter; in 2010, this privilege extended to their grandchildren.By 2018, 30%of these positions were reserved to the free fighter family, another 10%left to women, 10%left to poor areas, 5%retained to ethnic minorities, and 1%retained to the disabled.However, after a large -scale student protest in the same year, the government canceled all quotas.
However, in June this year, the High Court restored this controversial employment quota system and triggered a wide range of protests.Protesting spread across the country after the outbreak of the University of Daka on July 1.Students' protesters require reforms to regulations for 30%of the employment quota of free warriors. This approach is mainly used to repay the loyal followers of the People's Alliance.The certification documents held by thousands of "war heroes" are actually forged, and about 11,000 people including mayor, members, senior civil servants, and their intimacy in recent years have been added to the official free fighterIn the list.
Although the ruling party responded against violence against protests, young women were the driving force behind the protests.This reflects the gradual economic frustration of women in Bangladesh's ages. Although their education level has been significantly improved in recent decades, it is still limited in terms of employment opportunities.The women's labor participation rate in urban areas decreased from 34.5%in 2010 to 31%in 2016 and 2017.The latest data from the World Bank shows that the situation is still deteriorating: the unemployment rate of urban women (9.6%) is higher than men (3.8%), while young women from 15 to 24 years old have the highest unemployment rate at 16.5%. They are men of the same age.Twice.Even the proportion of female workers in the garment export industry has declined.
On July 21, the Supreme Court hurriedly overthrew the decision of the lower court, and that 93%of government positions must be admitted.Although the cancellation of the quota system has temporarily obtained a superficial calm, the court's decision is not helpful for solving the problem of deep -rooted skirt relationships that have become the characteristics of the people's alliance.State institutions, including judicial departments, were weakened, the government's ability to implement key reforms weakened, and the economy seemed to become more and more fragile.Living expenses have continued to rise, as well as officials in the public service committee responsible for the recruitment of civil servants, to further exacerbate the dissatisfaction of the whole society.
Despite being temporarily targeted, young protests may still be expanded into a wider anti -government movement.Police killed a video of a non -iron student in Guangtianhua, shocked the country and weakened the trust of law enforcement.Many people think that these departments are beneficiaries of some quota systems.However, the government did not publicly apologize to the atrocities of the security forces.
In addition, due to the lack of real polls -Hasina was elected Prime Minister for the fourth consecutive time in the farce -style election that was resisted by most opposition parties in January this year -forcing her to strengthen the control of society.Few people in the Cabinet of the ruling party can serve as honest middlemen, to rebuild trust and repair the relationship with protesters.Some people believe that the government has resorted to cruel targets and may have used the options to continue governing.
All these signs show that the current protest movement may become a key turning point for Bangladesh and prompt it to return to the election democracy.This will help it get rid of the position of "the least developed country" in 2026.
However, as the Arab Spring in 2011, the large -scale uprising of the authoritarian leaders can not always succeed, and the failure revolution may lead to more oppression and political turmoil.A turbulent Bangladesh may have several important impacts on the region: it may complicate the efforts to resolve the Humanitarian crisis in Myanmar, which further moves Bangladesh to China, and hinders India's trade with several inland states in the northeast.
Bangladesh has a wealth of young protest history, which played a key role in laying a foundation for the country's independence in 1971.Large -scale protests in this round show that young Bangladesh may help the country on the road of democracy and achieve sustainable economic growth.
Author M. Niaz Asadullah is the head of the Southeast Asian cluster of the Global Labor Organization, a professor at economics at Reading University in the United Kingdom, and a professor -level researcher at the North and South University of Bangladesh
English Original Title: An Arab Spring for Bangladesh?
All rights reserved: Project syndicate, 2024.
