How long will the central banks of the central banks of various countries last?

Source: Bloomberg

The three major central banks in the world have different directions for adjusting interest rates this week; the differences in monetary policy deepen. Although the outside world has been looking forward to this, it is expected to be a flash.

The Bank of Japan unexpectedly raised interest rates on Wednesday, and President Temoda and men continued to promote the benchmark interest rates to become more than zero.Then there was the Federal Reserve's decision to be mobilized, but issued a signal of interest rate cuts in September; then the Bank of England cut interest rates on Thursday, the first time since the outbreak of the epidemic.

The supply chain impact of the coronary virus era has basically swept the global economy, and inflation has reached or approached the goal.Therefore, most major central bank governors will focus on maintaining economic growth and employment, and Japan has once again entered its own independence.

HSBC global economist James Pomeroy said that different central banks are considering roughly the same circumstances, but how to formulate different conclusions on how to formulate policies.

At present, the domestic factors occupy the dominant position, which means that the interest rate adjustment speed and scale of the interest rate of the developing economy will be different, but this gap may not last long.In fact, Morgan Chase's economist predicts that in addition to economic recession, the "most synchronized policy easing cycle" will occur in history.

Vanguard Group Inc. Chief American Economist Roger Aliaga-Diaz said the time gap of the first rate cut for interest rate cuts may expand.However, we believe that the forecast path of the central bank's interest rate in the next few years will not disagree.Once the Fed starts to cut interest rates, most major central banks will have the same pace.

After the Bank of Japan raised interest rates at 15 basis points and announced the details of reducing the debt purchase plan, the Japanese yen strengthened to the highest level since March.It is expected that the Bank of Japan will also tighten the policy to traders that the maximum of yen may rise to 140 yen against the US dollar.

In contrast, due to the prospect of interest rate decline and the slowdown of the US economy, the US dollar showed a weak sign of many opponent currencies this week.

At the same time, people's expectations for the Fed will take action in September, which has increased, driving U.S. Treasury bonds to rise. In July, the third consecutive month of rising, the longest rose in three years.As investors determine that the Fed will cut interest rates three times this year, the 10 -year US debt yield fell below 4%on Thursday, the first time since February.