In the past 10 years, although Russia and China led by Putin have deepened their confrontation with the West, at least in a geopolitical project, they have always been consistent with the United States: demolition or at least curb North Korea's nuclear arsenal.

Until two years ago, the Ukrainian war broke out.

Putin visited Pyongyang on Wednesday and announced an agreement that "assisted each other in aggression". This is one of the most severe and people who feel like returning to the Cold War so far, highlighting the three largest largest in the world in the worldThe efforts to prevent North Korea's nuclear diffusion have long been treated.Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong -un just knocked on its funeral clock.

Putin does not only give up any surface wishes to ensure that North Korea's nuclear restraint.He promises to provide unsatisfactory technical help. If Kim Jong -un tried to improve several key technologies, it can help North Korea to design a warhead that can successfully return to the atmosphere, threatening many opponents, and the United States is the first to be its own bruntEssence

In Wednesday's statement, there was no place anywhere that North Korea should abandon any of the 50 to 60 nuclear weapons it owned by the outside world.On the contrary, Putin declared: "Pyongyang has the right to take reasonable measures to strengthen his defense capabilities and ensure national security and protection of sovereignty" -s, although he did not explain whether these measures include further development of North Korea's nuclear weapons.

Although this change is already very clear, what it may indicate is still shocking."There is no doubt that this is the rejuvenation of the security guarantee during the Cold War," said Che Weide, who is responsible for North Korea in the George W. Bush administration.These guarantees can be traced back to the common defense treaty between Pyongyang and Moscow in 1961, and the treaty has now failed.

However, this agreement is based on the transaction needs of both parties -Russia obtained shells, and North Korea has obtained high -end military technology, "said Che Weide, who is currently working in the Center for Strategy and International Research."They are not united because of their ideology during the Cold War, but because they are opposed to the order of the United States and Western liberalism," he also said.

Che Weide said that with the increasing threat from North Korea, this new agreement will definitely consolidate the increasingly formal security alliance between Japan, South Korea and the United States.

The Russians sent a signal 18 months ago.

Putin urgently needed more artillery shells to promote the war in Ukraine, so he asked Kim Jong -un for help at the end of 2022, hoping to get some limited help in ammunition.According to reports, Juanjuan has now become torrents: According to Western intelligence agencies, Kim Jong -un provided 5 million ammunition, and more of North Korea -made ammunition, which was filled with 11,000 containers called by the State Council.There are also ballistic missiles.

This reflects such a fact: Now, North Korea may have a valuable chip needed for the first allies that confront the West in history: it is a great weapon production country.

At first, Kim Jong -un received the return of oil and food.However, in the intelligence assessment circulating in Washington and Europe, officials said that more and more people are worried that North Korean leaders are now determined to overcome the last major technical obstacles that make North Korea a formal nuclear weapon country -hitting any city in the United States with nuclear weaponsAbility.

Russia has the key; the question is whether it is willing to hand over these keys.

"On the Ukrainian issue, Russia needs to be supported, which forced it to make some concessions by each other for a long time to China, North Korea, and Iran," the US National Intelligence Director Ev Lier Hanes March this year pairCongress said, "This may destroy the long -term anti -proliferation criteria."

At the closed -door confidential meeting, her speech was much more specific. She introduced to the important members of Congress that Kim Jong -un has not yet showed a series of technologies he has mastered.Most of them involve keeping the nuclear warhead at a high altitude of about 9,600 kilometers, and ensure that it can successfully return to the atmosphere and accurately hit the target.

This is a progress that many US presidents have expressed unacceptable.Before the end of the Pyongyang Summit this week, Che Weide wrote that Russia's prospects for helping North Korea were "the biggest threat to US national security since the Korean War."

"This relationship with a deep historical relationship and rejuvenation due to the Ukrainian war destroyed the security of Europe, Asia, and the United States," he said."In important issues such as the Ukraine and Gaza War, this issue is in the secondary position, which is simply looking for a dead end."

Of course, since North Korea conducted its first nuclear test 18 years ago, Washington has been facing many warnings on the danger of North Korea's nuclear arsenal. These warnings have almost become a background music for geopolitical turmoil.

Kim Jong -un also showed the will to crack down on the United States in non -nuclear way.Ten years ago, North Korea conducted a devastating hacker attack on Sony Films, destroying most of its computing power.The cause of the incident is that Sony decided to interview the story of the comedy (The Interview (also to assassinate Kim Jong -un, starring Sisi Rogan and James Franco. This film tells the story of two reporters who was sent to assassinate Kim Jong -un.

In many aspects, it lays the foundation for the modern network warfare, and through the invasion of the central bank and other western targets that are favorable, North Korea has obtained funds for the expansion of the nuclear plan.

A series of seemingly endless financial sanctions measures in the United Nations have not weakened North Korea's nuclear expansion and failed to weaken closely related missile plans.The destruction of the United States has played a role, but it does not last long.

Therefore, the United States can only rely on cold deterrence: reminding North Korea through remote bomber exercises, almost definitely leading to the demise of North Korea by the crackdown on the United States or its allies.However, if you signed a trusted security agreement with Moscow, this reasoning will become complicated.However, the clauses on Wednesday did not clearly explain.

The statement issued by Putin on Wednesday also reminds people that North Korea's continued success in the development of nuclear weapons marks one of the biggest failures of the two parties in Washington.It began in the Clinton government; in 1994, in the face of an increasingly emerging crisis with North Korea, the US government considered it to destroy its emerging nuclear plan before it produced a nuclear weapon.

President Clinton has shrunk, and he believes that diplomatic methods are a better way -began a 30 -year intermittent negotiation.China and Russia provided help and joined the "six -party talks" with North Korea. The talks tried to buy North Korea's nuclear plan.

After the six -party talks ruptured, North Korea was sanctioned and the United Nations established a supervisory team to publicly provide evidence of North Korea to evade sanctions.Recently, when the United Nations proposed to extend the term of the expert group, Russia successfully rejected it, at least currently.

Now, the United States, Japan, South Korea, and other allies are facing two urgent challenges.The first challenge was to try to prevent the technology transfer required on the procurement list.According to Che Weide and some other experts, it includes the construction of a mute nuclear submarine and the technology of avoiding missile defense.

U.S. intelligence officials reported that Putin had provided missile design plans to North Korea in the past, but there was almost no evidence that he helped North Korea to develop real nuclear weapons.Now, North Korea has a chip: Whether Kim Jong -un can get what he wants will decide whether North Korea continues to provide military fire from Putin.

No one pays more close attention to this than Iranians.They are also providing drones to Russians.US officials believe that the two sides are discussing missiles.Just last week, Iran increased pressure on Israel and the United States, saying that they were turning the most advanced centrifugal machine -can quickly convert Iran's fuel inventory into the materials required for making three nuclear weapons -in -depth, deep into deepeningAn underground facility, and this underground facility may exceed the depth of Israeli bunkers.

If North Korea's strategy works, Iranians may also see the benefits of further relationships with Russia.Putin may draw conclusions, anyway, he has nothing to lose.

The author David E. SANGER reports Bayeng government and national security.He has worked in the Times for more than 40 years