As long as the above -mentioned de -inventory optimization is made, and the policy searches through the policy dose continues to increase the policy. The tendency of Chinese nationals to buy houses and stocks will continue to increase.Essence
Following the spirit of the Chinese Ministries and Commons on May 17, in accordance with the spirit of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Mainland Government, a series of boost measures have been launched. The Chinese stock market, housing market and economy have shown some recovery.However, some stamina recently showed no signs.
First of all, the measures of various ministries and commissions have taken the right direction, but the intensity and continuity of some measures must be greatly strengthened, so that they are expected to promote the housing market to stabilize, economic recovery, and Shanghai variety indexes more than 3200 points.Due to space limitations, this article will put forward views on the most important housing market destocking plan.
According to the announcement of the plan, in addition to the reduction and mortgage interest rate, the central bank will inject 300 billion yuan (RMB, about 55.8 billion yuan, the same below), support state -owned housing enterprises and local governments at low prices to acquire wealthy private housing companies at low pricesThe existing house that cannot be sold will be changed to a security room.This direction has the effect of one arrow and counting sculptures. It is undoubtedly correct and wise. It can not only invent at the same time, and quickly provide the people with a reasonable price of public houses. It can also help banks, trusts and wealth management companies.Enterprises mortgaged into cash, reducing the indirect lethality of real estate enterprises.Although the previously aggressive banks must bear a lot of losses, it is much better than the mortgage that is difficult to realize at this stage.
However, except that the price of commercial housing is far from falling close to the level of affordable housing (moderate houses), the injection of 300 billion yuan is too small after all, but the author does not think that it is not necessary to call 7 trillion yuan.The reason is that the "starting funds" are injected, which can be used after returning to the cage: If the existing house of the financial and difficult housing enterprises is purchased at a low price, even if the purchase price is much higher than the appropriate house prices, it can still be a sandwich and high -quality sandwich sandwiches.The form of class rooms (referred to as sandwiches for short) is provided for the low -to -be -qualified to medium to high -income households to purchase, so that the down payment and bank loan of the subscribers can return to the start -up funds, allowing state -owned housing enterprises and local governments to use the second round of existing houses.Acquisition and public housing sales.In this way, it will be able to continue to start with funds for unlimited rounds of acquisition and public housing sales until the destocking target is completed.
In other words, because the starting funds can be returned and reused, there are too many 7 trillion yuan described in the workshop.However, on the other hand, due to the above -mentioned existing house acquisition, qualified family purchase, and funds for rewriting for at least several months or even seasons, China must see the housing market and the economy in a reasonable time.Compared with the huge amount of China's economy and housing market, it is undoubtedly a salary.
Delivery measures must be added
Therefore, in addition to the desertation plan from an optimized house to a sandwich, the starting funds can be added to at least 1 trillion yuan, and the central bank will be announced to the market.
1. This is a circulaable starting fund to ensure that the market recognizes the strength of the measures, which is enough to complete most of the housing market within two years.When needed, it will increase (or decrease) the starting funds injected by the central bank at any time to ensure that the housing market can stabilize in the short term, and the destocking target can be achieved within two years.
In addition, it is also important to speed up the purchase of existing housing at low prices from wealthy housing companies, to accelerate the transfer of them to public housing to allow nationals to purchase, accelerate the return of funds and re -use.If the speed is reasonable, the injection of 1 trillion yuan may be enough, but if the speed is too slow or blocked, it may increase to 1500 billion yuan or 2 trillion yuan in the early days, and then then return to 1 in the later period to 1 1 in the later period.Trillion yuan or lower.
Of course, the premise here is that the acquisition price must be low enough to ensure that the price of the sandwiches sold is reasonable.Although wealthy housing companies can choose to sell them all, due to severe financial difficulties, quite a lot will be forced by banks to reduce the borrowing ratio, or choose to accept large discounts before being forced to sell.No government rescue).
Reasons for Back to Warm Earlier and Recent Softness
At the beginning of the launch of a series of boost measures, some reasons for the recovery of the stock market, housing market, and economy were to unconsciously assume that the above "policy dose search strategy" was unconscious.Heat the housing market.
However, as the ministries and commissions have performed their planned booster measures, the market began to realize: 1. The booster measures that have been launched are not expected; second, the progress of acquiring the housing of wealthy housing companies is more progress than expected.Slow and time -consuming; 3. House prices in commodity are far from the appropriate housing prices; 4. Many financial and difficult housing companies are difficult to rescue; 5. The weakness of housing markets, economic and stock markets is larger than expected, and the stock market is back soft. The economy is softened.The heating of the housing market was cooled.
If it is cooled and continued, the plan to promote the recovery of the economy, housing and stock markets will lose a lot of effort, and the economy will have a risk again.
But if the inventory plan is optimized to sandwich houses after the Third Plenary Session of the Mainland Government and raised the starting funds to 1 trillion yuan, the market will once again believe that the aggregation measures will come one after another until the economy, housing and stock markets will be.Back to warm.
In addition, due to the very small probability of sandwicking house prices and appropriate housing prices, the central bank can reduce the minimum down payment of such sellable public houses to 10%, and the mortgage interest rate has dropped dozens of base points.This will increase to the willingness to subscribe to the medium -to -high -income family, and provide new driving forces for destocking.On the contrary, if the house prices of commercials are still dry to the right house price, it will take a long time, which may cause a major macro risk of commodity housing prices, causing greater malignant cycles and economic and stock markets to sink again.
The author believes that as long as the above -mentioned de -inventory optimization is made, and the policy searches through the policy dose continues to increase the policy, the tendency to buy houses and stocks in Chinese nationals will continue to increaseEssenceWhen the trend of recovery is formed, the government can stop the policy due to timely system, and then fade out of some to boost measures.
destocking and long -term room strategy
During the destocking period, it will move towards the appropriate long -term housing strategy. The entire housing market reform will be more effective, and it can avoid changing it back, saving many troubles and obstacles.
First of all, we must realize that after this real estate company exploded Lei, the local government will be in the next few years or even long -term, without sufficient land sales revenue to support fiscal expenditure.The reason is that the high -selling income means that the real estate chamber of commerce will make a lot of money again, which means that the house price will return to the high level, so that the people will suffer from high housing prices (and the disasters of housing prices in the future).The ideals of living in peace and career, and the long -term goal of violating houses and not frying.
In order to rationalize the short -term and long -term fiscal revenue sources of local governments, in addition to the right houses, the price should be launched higher than the ordinary housing, but lower than the ordinary stalls, mid -range and high -end sandwich housing, for low to medium -to -high -income familiesSubscribe.In addition to adding land costs and building costs to the price, about 5%, 10%, 15%, and 20%additional charges are also added as land tax shared by local and central governments.Because the price of commercial houses is still far from the appropriate house prices, and the quality of the sandwich house is also higher than the appropriate house in the future, the commercial houses that are currently acquired at low prices are sold to qualified families with high -end and medium -grade sandwiches.Inventory, avoid the time and deeper economic damage caused by waiting for the price of commercial housing to fall again. It is also more reasonable in the price and quality arrangement of suitable housing, sandwiches and commercial houses.
Due to the high quality and high "income image" of the sandwich room, those who have the ability to afford the capacity will purchase fascinating rooms instead of a suitable house, so that the demand will be far greater than the "income image".Commercial houses, with higher but reasonable 10 % to 20 to 20%Of the land tax, the income of the sandwich house will become the main financial income of the local government.This will give local governments sufficient incentives to complete the short -term goal of destocking, and provide the long -term goal of providing people with reasonable and public housing for citizens, and no longer relying on the land sales income of past commercial housing.Skilled houses and suitable houses with suitable houses are the mainstakes, and commercial housing is secondary, supplemented by public rental housing and low -rent housing. "Only in this way can mainland China and Hong Kong have once and for all to reduce many problems caused by excessive rise in house prices, and the financial crisis and economic recession caused by housing prices.
The author is the School of Public Policy, the National University of Singapore
Senior Research Consultant at the Institute of Competitiveness of Asia, part -time lecturer at the Department of Economics of the Chinese University of Hong Kong
