The favorable result obtained from random events is greater than unfavorable results, which is anti -fragile, and vice versa.The fragile things dislike the offenders, and anti -fragile things can withstand many small mistakes and damage without making big mistakes.If people fully understand "anti -fragility", they will be relieved of many phenomena in life, and they will face various failures more frankly. When facing "uncertainty", they are not so easy to cause anxiety.
At the end of the year, many people are talking about "uncertainty".Will artificial intelligence (AI) subvert existing occupations?What is the trend of Harbin conflict and the Russian and Ukraine War?Will the Taiwan election bring regional turmoil?How will the world economy affect everyone's livelihood?Coronary virus is still ghost, will there be new popularity?
However, "uncertainty" is not a unique phenomenon in our era, but has always accompanied the historical process of human beings, just like the occurrence of World War I, the occurrence of World War II, the terrorist attack, and the virus.EssenceIt is just that human thought has been progressing, and there are new ideological tools for us to choose, decide and face various politics, business, medical, and life uncertainty.
At the end of the year, many people travel around the world while their children are traveling around the world. Will luggage experience roughly?This is also an uncertainty.Therefore, some people like to use the logo of "Fragile" (fragile and fragile) for their luggage. I look forward to being able to take care of luggage to be careful. The worst result is that the items are damaged. The best result is that the luggage is safe.
So what are the antonyms of "Fragile"?People may all think of words such as "solid" and "tenacity".However, American thinker Nassim Nicholas Taleb pointed out in his book that sturdy and fragile luggage, after consignment, may be safe and sound.But the fragile luggage may still be damaged, and its opposite side should be better or enhanced.
For the convenience of understanding, we can also imagine one axis: if it is safe and sound, it is an intermediate state, and vulnerability and vulnerability after encountering violence are extreme, and the other is stronger.Therefore, fragile antonyms are not sturdy.However, the corresponding words could not be found in the existing language. Naxim used the word "Antifragile" to refer to the opposite side of fragile.Understanding "anti -fragility" is a better way of thinking and decision -making when facing the various "uncertainty" in the world.
What is "anti -fragile"?Nasim said that some things can benefit from the impact. When they are exposed to volatility, randomness, chaos and stress, risks and uncertainty, they can thrive and grow, which is anti -fragile.After mastering the anti -fragile mechanism, we can make more favorable decisions in the uncertain life.First of all, it is necessary to figure out what is fragile, which is much easier than predicting whether a unfavorable event will happen.How to judge?Nasim said that the favorable results obtained from random events are greater than unfavorable results, which are anti -fragile, and vice versa.People often make such decisions in life, but they don't know themselves.
In the past December, I stayed in Taipei for a few days. It was just the coldest day in Taipei in the past few days, and it was raining from time to time.In the evening when I arrived, I met with my friends. My friend said that it was unfortunate that this weather was only suitable for staying indoors, but I wanted to go to the North Coast to see the natural scenery.How should I decide?I took a look at the temperature trend, lowering every day, and the weather forecast was shower every day.
If you go to the North Coast, you can predict the worst result that the weather can be seen in other places.However, if you can go to the seaside to see, what kind of wind erosion sea carved geological wonders will make the North Coast have a unique charm. This kind of harvest and spiritual pleasure cannot be measured.The showers are not all the time. Even if it rains, you can see the north coast in the rain. There may be wonderful scenes in the rainy days.Therefore, in this incident, I feel that I can get benefits from uncertainty, and this incident has anti -fragile characteristics.But at that time I hadn't read Nasim's book.Of course, my decision -making may be wrong, but even if it is wrong.The fragile things dislike the offenders, and anti -fragile things can withstand many small mistakes and damage without making big mistakes.
In December, at the time of the Taiwan election, when I was walking on the North Coast, I also encountered a member of the village and shook hands with everyone who passed and distributed a small gift.There are also people issuing leaflets on various subway entrances and streets in Taipei. Great posters are very common. The whole society has a strong atmosphere for elections.Among the family, there are often "dark blue" and "dark green", but still harmonious.Play candidates' debate on the TV, and taxi drivers also talk about it. Some say that the DPP is completely disappointed. Some say that both the Kuomintang and the people will be selected as hopeless, which can be described as expressing their own opinions.The freedom of speech throughout the society is relatively high, but you can also feel the pressure faced by politicians.This social state actually has the characteristics of anti -fragility.The entire society seems to be very different, but in fact, it can benefit from this state, allow the spirit of democracy to make full use of it, and promote the progress of the entire society.
Naxim once wrote a trilogy about uncertainty, including the random scam black swan effect, anti -fragile.The concept of "anti -fragility" proposed among them is the most helpful for people to understand this world and to help people learn how to face the world full of "uncertainty".Just as "the one who can't kill you will make you stronger", the "anti -fragility" is the same, the more pressure, the more favorable.But he also reminded us that anti -fragility is also conditional. Just like human immunity, the continuous stimulation of virus bacteria makes the immune system strong, but it cannot exceed a certain limit.If people fully understand "anti -fragility", they will be relieved of many phenomena in life, and they will face various failures more frankly. When facing "uncertainty", they are not so easy to cause anxiety.
The author is a former media person and creator of children's books
